Sergio Uribe Henao

Understanding political cultures & electoral geographies from around the world through Atlas Electoral
previously @IRI_es @DA_Vienna @UTKnoxville

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

🇨🇴 Colombia's Electoral Map 🗺️

In 4 decades, Colombian elections went from ideologically similar Liberals vs. Conservatives to an ideological contest between an establishment Right & ascendant Left.

It's nearly always core vs. periphery 🧵⬇️
(Follow for post election updates!)

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

@RoldnSantiago @MafeCarrascal @ClaraLopezObre @ClaudiaLopez @SaGarcesCorrea @HeinerGaitan @petrogustavo Otra forma de ver este mapa de Colombia, con análisis desde los 90!

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

🇨🇴 Colombia's Electoral Map 🗺️

In 4 decades, Colombian elections went from ideologically similar Liberals vs. Conservatives to an ideological contest between an establishment Right & ascendant Left.

It's nearly always core vs. periphery 🧵⬇️
(Follow for post election updates!)

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

📍Today's Colombian 'centrists' are like 🇺🇸 independents in the Obama era- they're silently inclined toward 1 party

Despite winning in 2012, Obama lost 'independents' because many were just silent Republican voters who rejected the GOP's toxic brand following the Bush era ↓🧵

[Jennifer Pedraza @JenniferPedraz]

¿De la Espriella debería renunciar a su ciudadanía estadounidense? Sí, porque -para obtenerla- juró lealtad exclusiva a los intereses de EEUU y ahora debe anteponer los de Colombia.

¿Es esto motivo para desconocer su elección y llamar a la desobediencia? No, porque ganó las elecciones y el mandato democrático se respeta. Menos sentido tiene después de haber reconocido la victoria de ADLE, @ivancepedaCast.

La oposición argumentada, rigurosa y con movilización pacífica es el único camino para defender nuestra soberanía.

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

Check out my full post-election recap chat⬇️ 👀

https://t.co/XXDrq2XJtX

#ColombiaElige #Colombia #Elections2026

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

📍Today's Colombian 'centrists' are like 🇺🇸 independents in the Obama era- they're silently inclined toward 1 party

Despite winning in 2012, Obama lost 'independents' because many were just silent Republican voters who rejected the GOP's toxic brand following the Bush era ↓🧵

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

Former candidate/Bogota mayor @ClaudiaLopez says she aims to create a center-left party that can rally these progressive voters that are turned-off by @petrogustavo proposal to rewrite the 1991 Constitution

That may be harder after @IvanCepedaCast's narrow loss

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

A new beautiful map to our collection 🗳️🟣🔵🟠🔴

1991 - > 2026

📍fun fact: while Petro won & Cepeda lost, Cepeda flipped Vichada in the eastern plains, & narrowly Caquetá in the Amazons.

#Colombia #ColombiaElige #Elections2026

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

@SmmUrban1764 El voto afro (por ejemplo en el pacifico) ha sido una base electoral para los liberales en el siglo 20, y ahora la izquierda ascendiente.

Afro Colombianos y nativos son una proporción minoritaria de una victoria de izquierda, pero vital 🧵👇🏼

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

🇨🇴 Colombia's Electoral Map 🗺️

In 4 decades, Colombian elections went from ideologically similar Liberals vs. Conservatives to an ideological contest between an establishment Right & ascendant Left.

It's nearly always core vs. periphery 🧵⬇️
(Follow for post election updates!)

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

@SmmUrban1764 Los afro colombianos y los nativos sí hacen un bloque fundamental para una victoria de izquierda, tal como lo hacían para los liberales del siglo 20

Lo explico🧵👇🏼

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

🇨🇴 Colombia's Electoral Map 🗺️

In 4 decades, Colombian elections went from ideologically similar Liberals vs. Conservatives to an ideological contest between an establishment Right & ascendant Left.

It's nearly always core vs. periphery 🧵⬇️
(Follow for post election updates!)

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

@ClassicalSocdem @Not_Gilmore You can also just see from the raw count— Hernandez in ‘22 got 185k, vs 390k for @ABDELAESPRIELLA

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

🔵 Colombia '26 vs 🟣 Colombia '22

📍Cepeda ‘26 won 2 more departments than Petro, but w/ weaker margins in 2 key regions

- Bogotá & Caribbean

📍ADLE improved from ‘22 in Antioquia, Coffee Axis, & Colombians abroad, but lowered in Andean & Eastern Plains

see below 👀

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

@ClassicalSocdem @Not_Gilmore Turnout spiked abroad, though can’t find exactly by how much comparing 2nd rounds.

These numbers from the Foreign Ministry has it at a 10% spike from the first round in 2022.

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

The Centro Democrático, party of former President Alvaro Uribe & 3rd place candidate Valencia, says it’ll support @ABDELAESPRIELLA’s agenda in Congress.

The new president’s legislative majorities starts w/ the CD, as it’s the 2nd party in the Senate, & 3rd in the House.

[Centro Democrático @CeDemocratico]

COMUNICADO DE PRENSA

La bancada de congresistas del Centro Democrático, reunida hoy bajo los lineamientos de Álvaro Uribe Vélez, presidente fundador del partido, Gabriel Vallejo, Director Nacional y Paloma Valencia, Vocera Política y Programática, expresa a la opinión pública que:

La bancada de 47 congresistas del Centro Democrático en el Congreso de la República se declara partido de Gobierno.

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

🔵 Colombia '26 vs 🟣 Colombia '22

📍Cepeda ‘26 won 2 more departments than Petro, but w/ weaker margins in 2 key regions

- Bogotá & Caribbean

📍ADLE improved from ‘22 in Antioquia, Coffee Axis, & Colombians abroad, but lowered in Andean & Eastern Plains

see below 👀

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

Regardless of politics— a president should only be a citizen of the country they are leading.

And renounce foreign citizenships they may have.

[BlackMaps 🗺️ @maps_black]

🇨🇴🇪🇨🇺🇸 | Con la elección de Abelardo de la Espriella Latinoamericana tendrá DOS presidentes con ciudania estadounidense

Daniel Noboa de Ecuador 🇪🇨 nació en Estados Unidos

Abelardo de la Espriella de Colombia 🇨🇴 obtuvo la ciudadanía en 2023

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

Full analysis in my free piece 👇🏼

https://t.co/VS6K2Pbs9h

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

Disagree on two major points here:

1) Petro isn’t playing 3rd chess— politicians rarely are. He didn’t plan on an extremist right-wing candidate to take over

2) I’m not convinced Paloma would’ve won had she made it to the 2nd round

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

I agree, Cepeda could’ve won more moderates over if he had picked a more orthodox centrist candidate

But for devil’s advocate, there’s evidence that picking Aida helped boost turnout out in the southern departments, w/ high indigenous populations.

Cepeda netted 114k, Petro 70k

[Adax @Adaximandro]

El mayor y probablemente decisivo error de Iván Cepeda fue esa fórmula vicepresidencial que escogió.

[Sergio Uribe Henao @sergiouribeh]

No negar la constituyente más pronto.

[Carlos Toro @cartoro87]

Errores de Iván Cepeda:
1. No asistir a debates.
2. No ser crítico frente a los escándalos del gobierno.
3. Su fórmula vicepresidencial.