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A few days ago, I welcomed everyone to “Altseason 2024,” though, honestly, I didn’t expect $BTC to skyrocket to $90k so quickly.
To be fair, I’m not entirely thrilled about this rapid surge—not because I don’t hold $BTC (I do), but because such a steep climb without any consolidation has left significant imbalances below. These gaps could potentially lead to a liquidation cascade if the market turns downward.
Now, to clarify: I don’t expect a liquidation cascade on $BTC, but I do see it as a possibility. If that scenario were to unfold, altcoins would likely suffer more than $BTC, as we’ve seen in past pullbacks.
What I’d rather see is $BTC finding stability and moving sideways. Ideally, I was hoping for it to level off slightly above $80k, which would give altcoins some breathing room to catch up.
So, the key question is whether $BTC can stabilize at this high level. If it can, it would be very bullish for altcoins, and BTC dominance (BTC.D) would likely decline soon. If not, another pullback may occur, which could delay the altseason a bit.
Attached, you’ll find charts covering both scenarios:
• Scenario 1: $BTC stabilizes here, allowing alts to catch up.
• Scenario 2: $BTC retraces, with alts pulling back even more sharply.
Ironically, I would’ve preferred a more measured rise in $BTC, as that would have increased the chances of it consolidating and moving sideways.
Ultimately, regardless of whether scenario 1 or 2 plays out, the market remains bullish. For me, it’s really a matter of whether we’ll see a final retrace on alts before BTC.D breaks down or not.