bitcoin:native first weekly candle of august closes tonight. BTC at $63,069, below the line.
july's summary for anyone joining late: four tags of $65,631, zero holds, monthly closed under it. august inherits the exact same problem.
this week's map: the line overhead, $62,500 under it, the $58k shelf below that. the options market already voted, biggest put wall of the month sits at $60,000.
FWIW the most traded put strike very rarely closes ITM....
bitcoin:native average august return since 2013: +1.12%. sounds fine.
the median: -7.49%.
that gap is the whole lesson. a couple of monster augusts drag the average positive while the typical august loses you 7%. anyone quoting the average is describing two months from a decade ago. the median describes the one you're probably about to live through.
august has also closed red four years straight, 2022 through 2025. tendency, not a law. size like the median is coming and let the average be a pleasant surprise.
yesterday: a 9-3 fed vote with three dissents for a hike, a chairman refusing to give guidance, stocks with their worst fed-day close in memory, yields up.
bitcoin:native response: not much. green this morning.
that's three times in one week BTC ignored bad news that hit equities. the korea chip crash, the semi red dildo destruction and now the most hawkish fed day of the year. up 9% on the month while the S&P and the chip index both gave ground.
an asset that stops going down on bad news has run out of motivated sellers