Soccer Factor Model

This is the official account of the Soccer Factor Model, a sports analytics platform applying statistical modeling techniques for enhanced decision making.

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

We built the Soccer Factor Model.
A Bayesian model quantifying player skill (α) with weekly forecasts of goal-scoring probabilities across Europe's top 5 leagues + UCL.
🌐 https://t.co/WlDXF2fF0K
📱 iOS app: https://t.co/Up3K1t82nZ
📄 https://t.co/hlotv9dOAN

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

Read the entire #recap over on the #SFM blog: https://t.co/MOnqPW273Q

Featuring:
🇪🇸 Atlético vs. Barça --- Fermin Lopez' 1 in 50 performance!
🇮🇹 Inter vs. Como

#calcio #FPLCommunity #forecasting #validation #football #sportsanalytics #socceranalytics #soccer

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

#SFMMO #Validation Time!

🎯 498 match calls across Europe's Top 5 leagues so far this season.
We are up from last week, but still trailing the market's closing odds:

⚽️ SFMMO --- 54.0%
📚 Market --- 56.4%

#bayesian #Prediction #odds #FPL #Statistics

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

Premier League #GW10 --- #cleansheets projections:

Contentious calls?

- Everton sneaking in at 2nd place ?! --- but the uncertainty says it all
- ManU more likely against Villa than City against Nottingham ?! --- home advantage kicking in

#bayesian #prediction #fpl #EPL

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

Premier League #GW10 --- our Captaincy Picks as projected by our #SFM model!

Contentious calls?

- Havertz "only" 44% ?!
- Mbeumo again in the high 30s -- and only slightly behind Jackson ?!

#bayesian #prediction #FPL #football #EPL #scoring

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

#SFMMO weekend preview:

🇪🇸 Atlético vs Barça
🇮🇹 Inter vs Como

🚨 ATTENTION: a lot of nerdy stuff about why our #SFMMO made that Atlético - Barça call: https://t.co/JEezn48pTD

#sportsanalytics #fantacalcio #FPL #statistics #forecasting

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

What a back-and-forth it has been between ManCity and Arsenal as of late!

Will the gap widen further, right before the international break?

📊 More projections on our website: https://t.co/MQoKj3lYL0

#SFMMO #bayesianstats #statistics #PL #FPL #ARS #sportsanalytics #prediction

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

Read the whole #recap over on the #SFM blog: https://t.co/rlCt3ct8OE

Featuring:
🇩🇪 Bayern vs. Dortmund
🇮🇹 Milan vs. Inter
🇮🇹 Juve vs. Napoli

#calcio #FPLCommunity #forecasting #validation #football #sportsanalytics #socceranalytics #soccer

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

#SFMMO #Validation Time!

🎯 450 match calls across Europe's Top 5 leagues so far this season.
We are up from last week, but still trailing the market's closing odds:

⚽️ SFMMO --- 53.3%
📚 Market --- 56.0%

#bayesian #prediction #FPLCommunity #odds #FPL #Statistics

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

More stats over at: https://t.co/k9gNm9zjzZ

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

Premier League #GW9 --- our Captaincy Picks as projected by our #SFM model!

Contentious calls?
- Isak second most-likely to score despite facing Arsenal!
- Mbeumo 37% -- facing Chelsea's Swiss cheese-like defense!

#bayesian #prediction #FPL #football #EPL #scoring

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

📚 Read our weekend preview over on our blog: https://t.co/2jufSyFB4X

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

Another weekend full of European football ahead of us --- and what a weekend it is!

This time, featuring:
🇩🇪 Bayern vs Dortmund - the German fake version of El Clásico
🇮🇹 Milan vs Inter - Il Derby della Madonnina!
🇮🇹 Juve vs Napoli

#sportsanalytics #fantacalcio #FPL

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

Read the whole #recap over on the #SFM blog: https://t.co/Kb3j8vfje5

Featuring:
🇪🇸 El Clásico
🇮🇹 Napoli vs. Roma
🇫🇷 PSG vs. OL

#fantacalcio #fpl #forecasting #validation #football #sportsanalytics #socceranalytics #soccer

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

#SFMMO #Validation Time!

After 392 match calls across Europe's Top 5 leagues so far this season, we are currently trailing the market's closing odds:

⚽️ SFMMO --- 53.1%
📚 Market --- 54.8%

Struggling hard with PL and BL this time.

#bayesian #prediction #fpl #odds

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

Premier League #GW8 --- our #cleansheets projections:

1. Arsenal --- 45%
2. Chelsea --- 37%
3. ManU --- 36%
...
7. LFC --- 32%

ManU with 36% probability to not concede a goal --- that's a call I'd say!

#bayesian #prediction #fpl #football #EPL

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

Premier League #GW8 --- our Captaincy Picks as projected by our #SFM model: the players with the highest likelihood of scoring this weekend.

Isak above Joao Pedro, but the CIs overlapping says: not set in stone!

#bayesian #prediction #fpl #football #EPL #scoring

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

@DAZNFootball For anyone who wants to read about 300-400 words about it in our preview over on our blog: https://t.co/UPy0dj1ieH

And our Bayesian model's predictions 👇

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

Another weekend full of European football ahead of us --- and this time it is: El Clásico!

📚 Read our weekend preview over on our blog: https://t.co/UPy0dj1ieH

This time, featuring:

🇪🇸 El Clásico
🇮🇹 Napoli vs. Roma
🇫🇷 PSG vs. OL

#ElClasico #bayesian #fantacalcio #fpl

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

Read the whole #recap over on the #SFM blog: https://t.co/PgfXnsRcaz

Featuring:

🇩🇪 Bayern München vs. RB Leipzig
🇮🇹 Juventus vs. Lazio
🇪🇸 Real Betis vs. FC Barcelona

#fantacalcio #fpl #forecasting #validation #football #sportsanalytics #socceranalytics #soccer

[Soccer Factor Model @SFM_Predicts]

#SFM & #SFMMO #Validation Time!

So far this season, our #SFMMO has made 295 match calls across Europe's Top 5 leagues.

And our model's #accuracy is holding up with the market --- yet, slightly trailing it :

⚽️ SFMMO --- 54.2%
📚 Market --- 55.1%

#bayesian #prediction #fpl