shdwRift

football Raider
stuck between max pain and max gains

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@mikhailtoh @Polymarket Argentina should win, but I’d be careful with blowout combos

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@0xLexWell @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket @PolymarketSport Agree on the under, but I think the real angle is draw/ET if Salah is not 100%

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@teddi_speaks 2-0
3-0
but I think Cape Verde keep it ugly longer than people expect. Vozinha has been carrying them and this feels more like a late Argentina cover than a first-half blowout

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

I built a full WC2026 knockout wallchart with Claude Fable.

Fed it every group result, every completed R32 match, ESPN stats/events, then forced a red-team pass against its own bracket

Spiciest call:
Mexico knock out England at the Azteca/Banorte altitude.

The model originally had Argentina in the final, then flipped to Brazil after red-teaming Messi dependency + Argentina’s softer slate/travel path.

Full bracket here:
https://t.co/sCzQHcJzLW

Tell me where it breaks

@PolymarketSport

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@AGGTORNADO Australia conceded only twice in the group and Egypt may have a limited Salah

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@EagleVisions Under makes sense, but draw/ET is the sharper angle here: Australia allowed only 0.052 xG per shot in the group, and if Salah is limited Egypt lose their main chance creator

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

Corners over 8.5 is live too

Algeria put up 10 corners in a single group game (vs Jordan) and scored twice from them. Both of their group goals against Jordan came off corners. This team lives on the flank

Switzerland's front three (Ndoye, Embolo, Vargas) also live on crosses and cutbacks, and their fullbacks push high every match

Add a knockout referee letting contact go and you get stoppages, free kicks, more corners piling up

8.5 feels low for this matchup

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

Switzerland vs Algeria. Leaning Switzerland but I think this goes to extra time

Both teams have a habit of going the distance in WC knockouts. Switzerland's last 2 playoff exits both came after 0-0 in normal time (2006 Ukraine, 2014 Argentina). Algeria's only playoff appearance (2014 Germany) also went to ET

Petkovic knows this Swiss squad inside out from his years there, but that cuts both ways, the Swiss staff know his patterns too. Nobody's getting surprised tactically

1-1 or 1-0 after 90, then it's a coinflip. Slight lean Switzerland if it gets there

@PolymarketSport

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

Switzerland vs Algeria. Leaning Switzerland but I think this goes to extra time

Both teams have a habit of going the distance in WC knockouts. Switzerland's last 2 playoff exits both came after 0-0 in normal time (2006 Ukraine, 2014 Argentina). Algeria's only playoff appearance (2014 Germany) also went to ET

Petkovic knows this Swiss squad inside out from his years there, but that cuts both ways, the Swiss staff know his patterns too. Nobody's getting surprised tactically

1-1 or 1-0 after 90, then it's a coinflip. Slight lean Switzerland if it gets there

@PolymarketSport

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@PolymarketSport He got the historic KO goal, but with Croatia turning every knockout into a marathon, Martinez probably wanted legs for extra time

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@dobioprer @Polymarket @PolymarketSport Portugal conceded 1 goal against DR Congo and Uzbekistan but Croatia put 2 past England, BTTS is sharp

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@mikecantmiss Austria can be the first team to put one past Simon?

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@afonso003_ Portugal at 57¢ isn't the steal you think. They scored 1 goal from open play in 180 minutes against Colombia and DR Congo combined. Croatia have gone to extra time in 5 of their last 6 World Cup knockout matches

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@Oscarweb0 1-0

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@GefionTips Portugal conceded 1 goal in 3 group games. Croatia have gone to extra time in 5 of their last 6 World Cup knockout matches, it's what they do. And Ronaldo has 0 goals in 8 career World Cup knockout appearances.

Under 2.5 is the play

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@heistruthX croatia in a world cup knockout game and you bet no draw

5 of their last 6 KO matches went past 90 minutes. modric doesn't do regulation losses. it's what they do

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

@Predicti0r But Mexico's T1 defense in KO mode - that's an equal-strength counter

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

I see 1-1 in regulation, Mexico go through after

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

Mexico – Ecuador
Ecuador TT O 0.5
@PolymarketSport

Not seeing a Mexico clean sheet today. Ecuador consistently generate 2+ xG per game, create loads of chances, scored against Germany. Really solid side

[shdwRift @shadowtrafg29]

Mexico – Ecuador
Ecuador TT O 0.5
@PolymarketSport

Not seeing a Mexico clean sheet today. Ecuador consistently generate 2+ xG per game, create loads of chances, scored against Germany. Really solid side