In 2005, the highest expected-value career move a finance grad could make was taking the Lehman Brothers offer.
A hedge fund manager on why the smartest people make the number one career mistake:
Sinan Xin joined Lehman's tech M&A group out of Penn in '06 — now runs a global EM tech long/short fund.
Sinan Xin explains:
"The number one mistake people make at this stage is going somewhere for what seems like a rational economic outcome."
"The reason people do that is because these are intelligent people — making what seems to be a very reasonable and attractive economic choice."
"But five, ten years down the line, you're surrounded by people who made the same choice you did — for a different and potentially better reason."
"That's when you find you're not as competitive. You're not as passionate about generating alpha on a large cap US portfolio. You're not the expert on squeezing a millionth of a millisecond out of a trade."
"Making a decision based on passion rather than pure expected value is more alpha down the line — because the fidelity in calculating those expected values is quite low."
"In 2005, the expected value of taking a job offer from Lehman Brothers was quite high. The outcomes were different."
"People place too much faith in their own ability to assign correct probabilities to uncertain outcomes."
“If working with a model is like replicating a skilled employee that’s been working with you for six months rather than … the first hour of their job, … a huge unlock in AI capabilities.” - @dwarkesh_sp This is exactly what I’m building in the investing domain! Join us!
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Edition one dives into Speed & Edge.
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https://t.co/Q432jygKAS
A deep dive into @Cloudflare
https://t.co/N5HLNMwKQ2
Cloudflare’s journey is the story of how a spam-tracking side project among three founders blossomed into the invisible backbone of the internet, accelerating and protecting 20% of all web traffic worldwide. From its unlikely beginnings in law school to its game-changing freemium model, Cloudflare redefined internet infrastructure—fusing speed, security, and radical transparency into a global platform. Today, they’re not just powering websites, but shaping the future of edge computing, zero trust security, and cloud connectivity. Dive in to discover how relentless innovation and a mission to “build a better internet” transformed Cloudflare into a critical force behind our digital world—one whose best work happens so seamlessly, you might never even know it’s there
Transcript - https://t.co/Vko6WjWzRl
Hey @JeepIndia , I _own_ one of your cars. Yet your team keeps spam-calling me to buy… a Jeep. 🤦♂️
Stop harassing your existing customers and clean up your lazy call lists. Spam isn’t marketing it’s brand damage. Are you proud of this and you think this is how you’ll succeed?
https://t.co/uJ41tUumA0
"Unfortunately, there’s a natural human tendency to hedge our bets — to make design choices in our experiments such that a mediocre success is the most likely outcome. There’s also a tendency to only do experiments that you know in advance will work" 💯
stop the spam @ICICIBank@ICICIBank_Care ... 7 calls in about 3 hours during a working day, do you really think anyone is going to appreciate this? Horrible! What would you feel if someone did this to your executives?
https://t.co/WpHCDg2eQ1 And https://t.co/MLq8X9bICV and so on mean that we’re now clearly entering a phase where “ads are for poor people”. So now how do you target the high spenders using ads?
Really saddened by the service and communication by @JeepIndia How can it take weeks upon weeks to fix my Meridian? For a premium vehicle I expect premium service but here even basic service isn’t provided. 😡😔
Lately, tech twitters been depressing.
- bad job market
- layoffs
- engineers applying & not hearing back
- talk of things improving only in 2024
- even good brands like Dunzo struggling
Figured I'll share internal 📊 to cover the state of India tech hiring and add perspective