Shanthi Manian

Assoc. Prof., WSU Pullman. Development econ, global health, behavioral. she/her

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

How much p-hacking is happening among AI benchmark makers?

IE: Coming up with 100 model capability tests, and then only publishing results that show a nice upward slope that matches our intuitions about improving strength over time?

[Jess Hoel @Jess_Hoel]

Hey @AnthropicAI, I am so SO SOOO frustrated!! How do I escalate to a human agent? Fin is not helping and neither is Claude itself.

I tried to upgrade to Pro in February through https://t.co/MVgnhLiqFm but was told the billing details didn't go through...

[Paul Novosad @paulnovosad]

AI has an insane rate of progress when we observe what it does for jobs that take place on screens.

Progress is slower for jobs in the world of atoms.

Since the intellectual class spend all their time on screens, it's easy to think "AI will do all the jobs!"

We are like 15th century farmers thinking about mechanization. If you mechanized agriculture, what other jobs could there even be?

Perhaps employment in the on-screen sector will shrink to a small percentage.

Of course stuff on screens affects things in the real world too. But the rate of progress is different. On screens (i.e. in simulation), the self-driving car problem has been solved for many years. IRL, we are still years and years away from replacement of human drivers.

I think one reason for divergent predictions on how much AI will matter is that the "6% growth" AI experts are extrapolating from stuff on screens to stuff with atoms, while the "3% growth" economists are not.

[Seeking Boston Marathon @seeksboston26mi]

2200 days ago, I caught COVID for the first time.
I was not vaccinated as it had just arrived so there was no vaccine. It was a mild infection, so I continued running. Nobody could have told me then, that I would develop Long Covid and cancer, and lose my life to it.

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@leightjessica I’m interested in something like this too and will be following. I’m hardly a power user and I just got started, but I will say that I’ve learned a lot just by playing around with it. I created a separate folder, copied data into it, and just started asking it to do things.

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@Coach_Yac Shanahan should have just kept it simple and stuck with what has been working for 6 games. He was running scared of this Seattle defense from the first play of the game.

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@LombardiHimself They’re rightfully exhausted. They kept us in the game for a really long time.

[charlos @loscharlos]

Turn 36 today & I’ve spent my entire thirties with #LongCovid. When I turned 30 I was biking to work 10 miles a day, & since my mild covid infection — I struggle to walk more than a block or work more than a few hours a week.

Here’s 4 things I wish everyone knew:

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@LombardiHimself But that defense is not coming back this season.

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@StatsOnFire Do you have a theory for why this is happening? Is it something about the style of play? Or team culture?

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@Coach_Yac Depends how long it takes for Kittle to come back

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@Coach_Yac Kyle can say what he wants but we all have eyes.

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@Coach_Yac Brock isn’t healthy.

[Nick Wagoner @nwagoner]

#49ers K Jake Moody has made 11 of his last 21 field goal attempts in the regular season.

He's out on field warming up as I type this but it's just simply not anywhere close to good enough.

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@Coach_Yac 😭

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@StatsOnFire It’s all ego. He can’t admit he made a mistake two years ago.

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@leightjessica @Prof_Nishith_P Great news!

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@nwagoner Moody has always been good in practice. He can’t handle the pressure in games.

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@49ers Purdy was standing right next to my kid and didn’t sign his hat. 🙁 Rough day for one of your biggest fans.

[Shanthi Manian @shanthim]

@akashanav Sales hasn’t been frozen in amber for the past 5 years… he may be capable of evolution and we know he works well with Shanahan.