Perhaps, time is the most valuable commodity
because it is truly limited and irreplaceable.
Therefore, there is no real monetary value that can buy you your time back.
And it seems like the fairest exchange of time is happiness and fulfillment.
Thoughts on $META earnings
Very strong quarter despite the headlines. Revenue grew 28% to over $60b, impressions increased 14%, average price per ad increased 12%, and the advertising business looks healthy.
The issue wasn’t demand, it was spending. Costs jumped 55%, operating margin fell from 43% to 31%, that caused eps to miss by 14%, and capex guidance was raised again, albeit slightly, to an astonishing $140b
To me, this is the same story we’re seeing across its counterparts. The smartest people in the world are investing the largest amounts of capital in history, making enormous promises about AI. They may ultimately be right and create trillions of dollars of value. But they’re also asking investors to accept an extraordinary amount of uncertainty.
Everyone thinks they’re investing in AI, they’re really not. They’re investing in management’s ability to allocate hundreds of billions of dollars intelligently.
The market isn’t saying Zuckerberg is wrong. It’s saying, “show me the returns.” Spending money is easy, earning exceptional returns on that money is the hard part. History is full of companies that spent fortunes chasing the future and destroyed shareholder value along the way.
Every hyperscaler is spending because every hyperscaler feels like it has to spend. That doesn’t automatically mean every dollar invested will earn an exceptional return. Every dollar spent on AI is also a dollar that can’t be used for buybacks, acquisitions, dividends, or other opportunities. Capital always has an opportunity cost.
I’ve been thinking a lot about this so called AI arms race. If I had to bet, I’d probably bet it works for $GOOG, $AMZN, etc. But there’s a subtle difference between investing because the opportunity is extraordinary and investing because not investing may be even more dangerous. I think the hyperscalers are in the second camp. They may still earn phenomenal returns, but they don’t really have the luxury of saying no. Companies like $AAPL do. That’s a very different capital allocation decision and predicament to be in.
Ultimately, I don’t care what $meta spends this quarter. I care what these investments earn over the next decade. If this AI buildout generates extraordinary returns on capital, today’s spending will look brilliant. If it doesn’t, investors will eventually wonder why hundreds of billions of dollars were deployed in the first place and punish the stock.
The market doesn’t hate spending, it hates uncertainty. Until the returns become more visible, this is less a debate about AI and much more a debate about capital allocation. That’s what will ultimately determine shareholder value. 🌹
Makes sense in the AI era for all hyper scalers to make their own chips for inference for both competitive advantage and optimized inference…rather than depend on Nvidia’s
Elon on hardware upgrades:
"I think it will make sense to upgrade all cars that have less than HW4. Any cars that have cameras basically. I think we want to upgrade them to the next-gen AI board. We have an upgraded AI4 chip around the middle of next year. Then AI5, which hopefully will be in volume production in middle of next year. That will initially go into Optimus. AI6 will be the best edge computing in the world. It's just so good. Things are going really well on the chip end."
Computing power is probably the biggest driver of this AI revolution more so than the underlying LLM. These models only seem to get better with more parameters (read compute).
Messi bathed Yamal when he was a baby, they were finally scheduled to meet in the finalissma and they cancelled it & now they finally meet at 19 and 39 years of age in the World Cup final.
I swear not even Shakespeare himself could’ve written this script.
🚨 SpaceX just pulled off the greatest financial engineering feat of the century. In about a week.
Here's everything that happened, in order:
– Folded xAI into a rocket company, turning "space logistics" into an "AI infrastructure" story overnight
– Priced the IPO at a flat $135. No book-building, no range. Take it or leave it
– Floated just 4% of the company. 556 million shares against 13 billion
– Raised $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation, near 100x revenue
– Lobbied to get into major indices in ~15 trading days. Amazon took years. Forced buying, by law
– Handed an unusually large slice of the float to retail. Tiny supply, an army of buyers
– Watched the stock rocket past $200, up nearly 20% in a single session
– Saw ~46% of the entire float trade hands in one day
– Then announced a $60 billion all-stock buyout of Cursor, the AI coding tool
– Structured it so the higher the stock trades, the fewer shares it has to print to pay
A company losing $4 billion a quarter is now buying AI startups with paper it manufactured out of a 4% float.
The scarcity that pumped the stock now makes its shopping spree cheaper.
This isn't aerospace. It isn't even AI.
It's the finest financial engineering of the century, and it's only week one.
🚨 Pep Guardiola: “What is Barça missing to win the Champions League? The Champions League is a competition that DESTROYS projects, and I hope that’s not the case at Barça”.
“We must not think that just because you don’t win it, everything that has been built is no good. The league is the competition that gives you consistency and continuity. In the Champions League, you need to reach the decisive stages in good condition, without injuries, and refereeing also has a huge impact”.
“What matters is that the daily work is excellent, that the team keeps growing and improving, and that they don’t believe the season is a failure just because they don’t reach the Champions League final or win it. The league is what sets the foundation for judging whether a season has been good or not”.
Pretaped reality TV shows like #Survivor are facing an unforeseen problem: Prediction markets are spoiling their endings.
• #Survivor50 winner Aubry Bracco was the overwhelming favorite on Kalshi six weeks before the Feb. 25 season premiere (by Jan. 28, she had jumped to 83%)
• Kalshi users also spoiled the winners of “Masked Singer” and “Next Level Chef” three months early
• Active discussions are taking place at Paramount about insider trading on prediction markets, according to one source
• Execs at Kalshi claim traders receive intel from spoilers already circulating online
https://t.co/ot4Tx7fGNA