Shatinmore

Hong Kong racing, seen clearer: pace maps, running styles, draw bias and sectionals. Sha Tin and Happy Valley. Ratings sealed before race 1.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

New here? This is ShatinMore.

Before every Sha Tin and Happy Valley meeting we rate every runner and lock the file before race 1. After the races we score it against the favourite. Good days and bas days stay up.

Free: pace maps, running styles, draw bias👇🏻

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

📊 Happy Valley, Wed 21 Oct: how the sealed picks did

Our #1 won 2/9 (favourite 2/9)
Winner in our top 3: 3/9
$1 on each #1: -24% (favourite -44%)

✅ R4 VIRTUS GLORY @ 2.1 · R8 LEADING AGILITY @ 4.7

Sealed pre-race, misses included 👇
https://t.co/0WKXh7VCpk #HKracing

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@racingadvisor49 Leading Agility (#12) in R8 at 4.7 was our #1, sealed before the first race. Misses stay on the record too.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@akselnwe R4: Virtus Glory (#4) won at 2.1 — our top-rated, sealed before race 1.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@EspokunCity R4: Virtus Glory (#4) won at 2.1 — our top-rated, sealed before race 1. https://t.co/0WKXh7WaeS

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@HongKong_Racing @AtTheRaces @ToteRacing R4: Virtus Glory (#4) won at 2.1 — our top-rated, sealed before race 1.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

🏇 Happy Valley, Wed 21 Oct: our ratings are sealed, before race 1 (18:40 HKT).

Clearest top picks:
R1 GLORIOUS JOURNEY (2)
R5 GEORGIAN SIGMA (3)
R7 QUICK CONTRIBUTION (10)
R9 POPE CODY (2)

All 9 races, every runner ranked 👇
https://t.co/0WKXh7VCpk #HKracing #HappyValley

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@OfficialFPL Under the radar: Evanilson, 3.6% owned, 12 pts in GW7. It was on our sealed hidden-gems list.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

📊 Sha Tin, Mon 19 Oct: how the sealed picks did

Our #1 won 2/11 (favourite 3/11)
Winner in our top 3: 2/11
$1 on each #1: -55% (favourite -35%)

✅ R10 PACKING FIGHTER @ 1.9 · R11 BABY SAKURA @ 3.0

Sealed pre-race, misses included 👇
https://t.co/kILTFlZW3T #HKracing

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@wozcookie Baby Sakura (#8) in R11 at 3 was our #1, sealed before the first race. Misses stay on the record too.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@BaystoneFarm @HKJC_Racing @inglis_sales @UpperBloodstock R10: Packing Fighter (#1) won at 1.9 — our top-rated, sealed before race 1.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@lipsycat Baby Sakura (#8) in R11 at 3 was our #1, sealed before the first race. Misses stay on the record too.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@HKJC_Racing @zpurton @mark_mnracing R10: Packing Fighter (#1) won at 1.9 — our top-rated, sealed before race 1.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@HKJC_Racing @JamesCummings88 R10: Packing Fighter (#1) won at 1.9 — our top-rated, sealed before race 1.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@Racebuzzlive R2 for us: Invictus (#10) on top. Picks are sealed before the first race and scored in public.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@shanksponies Our top-rated in R1: Golden Fortune (#2). Sealed before race 1, scored after — misses included.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

@HKJC_Racing Our top-rated in R1: Golden Fortune (#2). Sealed before race 1, scored after — misses included.

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

5/
Why publish a negative result? Because the product is the measurement, not the myth — every rating sealed before race 1, scored after, good days and bad.

Full method + the comments glossary:
https://t.co/zrzDcoOuis

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

1/
Every punter has backed a horse because it was "desperately unlucky last time."

The HKJC writes an official trip note for every runner — so racing's oldest excuse can be tested instead of argued.

We tested it on 31,336 Hong Kong runs. 🧵

[Shatinmore @shatinmore]

4/
The one trip note that does travel: a vet line (lame, bled).

Those horses win 5.2% next time vs 8.2% base.

Health carries forward; bad luck doesn’t.