Kyle Shea

Building NFL models. Data-driven analysis.

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

Week 1 DFS Stack of the Week:
🔸Joe Burrow & Chase Brown

The Bengals are -3.5 pt favorites in the highest projected slate of the week with an over/under of 50.5pts.

Our model has Joe Burrow projected for ~23 DK pts with a ceiling of 26+ pts.

Whereas Chase Brown is projected for 20 DK pts with a ceiling north of 24pts.

I am looking for this offense to click early after a disappointing 2025 season, and believe this stack is the best play in the Week 1 slate. #DFS #fantasyfootball #NFL

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

Locked into Hunter Henry and JSN tonight.

JSN is an obvious pick, last season he made the optimal lineup in 85% of his games and Captain 25% of the time. Also, the 4/27 stat gets overstated, that was mostly game script plus he was banged up mid game.

As for Hunter Henry, New England should've leaned on him way more in the Super Bowl, as Seattle gave up the most fantasy points to opposing tight-ends last year.

Curious where you land on final builds.

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (SEA) | $10600 DK

No surprise here, JSN is the clear best player on this Seattle offense. A lot of the sentiment around this matchup will discuss how he was limited to 4 catches for 27 yards in the Super Bowl, but this is not encompassing two key factors: (1) Seattle was leading a large portion of the game and heavily relied upon their run game, and (2) JSN got hurt during the game and Seattle was in no rush to put him back on the field and risk further injury. Overall, JSN made the optimal lineup in 85% of his games last season and 25% of the time he was the Captain.

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

Here are my top two picks for tonight's #DraftKings Showdown CPT Mode contest 🧵

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

1. Hunter Henry, TE (NE) | $4800 DK

Henry's been Maye's safety asset for two years, and with an entire new receiving core, I anticipate Maye to rely on a familiar teammate. Henry only saw 5 targets against this same Seahawks defense in the Super Bowl, catching 3 for 31 yards. I personally believe this was a huge miss by New England as they hardly looked his way in the Super Bowl. Especially against a Seattle defense who allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in the 2025 season (largely a byproduct of their pass rush forcing checkdowns). Henry was hit or miss all of last season but he has a lot of potential in this matchup tonight.

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

I am assuming Christian Gonzales will play in the opener despite all of the contract distractions.

However, if he does not play expect JSN to have a field day.

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

Key Offensive Roster Changes:
#Seahawks vs. #NEPats, Week 1

Additions:
- AJ Brown (NE)
- Romeo Doubs (NE)
- Jadarian Price (SEA): Drafted, 1st round

Departures:
- Kenneth Walker III (SEA): Left for Kansas City
- Stefon Diggs (NE): Left for WAS

Injuries:
- Zach Charbonnet (SEA): PUP, out 4 weeks
- Jake Bobo (SEA) — IR
- Treyveon Henderson (NE) — Questionable

#NFL #DFS

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

@AdamSchefter @MikeReiss Hopefully they'll target Hunter Henry like they should've done in the Super Bowl.

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

And this week, that same matchup runs it back. NE @ SEA in Week 1.

None of this means chalk always wins. It means WR and RB carry the highest historical floor, but DST has already shown it can hit at the highest level, on this exact matchup.

Full rankings for Week 1: https://t.co/qIH3UghqfH

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

I tracked every Captain selection in winning DraftKings Showdown lineups for the 2025 season.

The position breakdown might change how you build your lineup this week🧵

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

Here's the irony.

Of that 5% of games where DST was the CPT in the winning lineup, the Super Bowl was one of them.

Seahawks DST at CPT was part of the winning lineup in Super Bowl LX.

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

@SleeperNFL @SleeperBears Just make sure you have Monangai on your bench

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

Week 1 DFS: Anytime TD Value Picks

Two names worth a closer look from a pure value perspective this week.

Bucky Irving is projected at a 45% likelihood to score against a Cincinnati defense that remains vulnerable, even after offseason improvements. Having moved past his 2025 injuries and no longer splitting touches with Rachaad White, our model sees real value here relative to the market (40%).

Michael Wilson carries similar upside. He scored at least one TD in each of his final 5 games last season, and despite a tougher matchup against the Chargers, our model has him at a 41% likelihood to find the end zone in Week 1, relative to the market (24%).

Neither is a lock, but both project considerably higher than a player like Gibbs, whose market implied probability sits at 76%.

See the full TD prop board:
https://t.co/9Ibo8ZUz5d

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

Rams get an extra day of rest after this game with a Week 2 MNF game against the Giants.

That's about the only break. Then it's:

Week 3: at Denver, on a short week.
Week 4: at Philadelphia.
Week 5: home vs. Buffalo, Primetime.

Might see better Super Bowl odds by Week 6 for the Rams.

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

@MarkMcClune @azfamily @AZFamilySports Both these guys seem to be striving with Kyler out of the picture😅

[Kyle Shea @shea_analytics]

@Underdog Are we sure this is Malik Willis and not Ricky Williams pictured?