Ethereum is PERMISSIONLESS
Ethereum is OPEN SOURCE
Ethereum is ANTIFRAGILE
Ethereum is ENERGY-EFFICIENT
Ethereum is GLOBAL
Ethereum is BUDGET-SECURE
Ethereum is UNCESORABLE
Ethereum is a SOCIAL MOUVEMENT
Ethereum is HOPE
Ethereum is FREEDOM
ETHEREUM IS NOT A COMPANY
I think ETH is starting to look really uniquely positioned from a macro perspective. A few thoughts:
1) Store-of-valueness + quantum: Quantum is a real long-term threat. Maybe not “next 10 years,” but markets are forward-looking. If you want an asset you can set-and-forget for 20+ years, you want quantum on the roadmap. The Ethereum Foundation making it a priority matters a lot for ETH’s SOV credibility.
2) AI makes “immutable forever” a tougher sell: With LLMs cranking out code (and finding bugs) at insane speed, the idea that any complex system can be perfectly safe and never need upgrades is getting harder to believe. Better tooling will mean better software, but also faster vulnerability discovery.
3) ETH has the cleanest monetary policy in crypto: No obvious long-term security budget problem, and it’s not running ~5% annual inflation like SOL (or most L1s). Net inflation has been ~0.8% over the last 30 days and ~0.21% since the Merge. Gold’s historical supply growth is ~1.5%/yr.
4) From an energy & infrastructure perspective: ETH also doesn’t compete with AI data centers for power or capital, it’s not exposed to the same security-budget pressure that will come as AI spend intensifies. That structural separation matters and will only become more important over time.
5) Upside optionality: ETH’s economics look sustainable even with historically low fees and without “native/based rollups” yet. If stablecoins + tokenized assets + agentic payments really scale, fee burn could ramp and ETH could go deflationary again. That’s a pretty unique macro setup.
ETH’s use as pristine censorship-resistant collateral is much more important than its consistent use as a medium of exchange
like an order of magnitude more important
Roger Federer broke the internet with one statistic that will change how you see every setback in your life.
1,526 singles matches.
Won almost 80% of them.
20 Grand Slams. 103 titles.
Now answer honestly:
What percentage of total points do you think he won across his entire career?
70%? 65%? 60%?
Try … 54%.
He lost literally almost EVERY SECOND POINT he ever played for 24 years.
And still became one of the greatest of all time.
Watch him explain it himself (2:07 of pure life-changing wisdom):
“In tennis, perfection is impossible… When you lose every second point on average, you teach yourself to say:
‘Okay, I double-faulted — it’s only one point.’
‘Okay I got passed at the net — it’s only one point.’
Even a screaming overhead smash that ends up on SportsCenter Top 10… still just one point.
So when you’re playing your point, it has to be the most important thing in the world.
The moment it’s over — it’s behind you.
That mindset frees you to attack the next point, and the next, and the next with absolute intensity and clarity.”
Then he looked at the crowd and said the line that hit a billion people in the soul:
“The real sign of a champion is not that they win every point.
It’s that they lose again and again and again… and have learned how to deal with it.
Negative energy is wasted energy.
Cry it out if you have to. Then force a smile.
Move on. Be relentless. Adapt. Grow.
Work harder — and work smarter.”
Save this post.
The next time you lose a deal, bomb a presentation, get ghosted, miss a deadline, or just have “one of those days” — come back here and read it again.
You’re not falling behind.
You’re just in the 46%.
And the 46% is exactly where every single legend has spent most of their career.
Keep playing the next point.
(full 2:07 clip — sound on)
Tomorrow: Fusaka
Ethereum’s second major upgrade this year.
→ Feature highlight: PeerDAS - Unlocking up to 8x data throughput. For rollups, this means cheaper blob fees and more space to grow.
Learn more.
https://t.co/3TOda5KjY2
1/ On Losing Faith
Is it over?
Was it all a fever dream?
Have we run out of steam?
Is it time to pivot to AI for real this time?
2/ Everything is dead?
BTC: DAT premiums down, nobody cares
ETH: Stablecoin
Alts: Crushed
NFTs: Right click saved
Meme coins: As expected tbh
Zcash: Pumping! which ofc means "cycle is over"
3/ This is the worst cryptotwitter timeline I have ever seen relative to the environment.
Nobody is attacking us, USA is being reasonable and rational, no CEX has run away with our money, and yet, dead, dead, dead.
No narrative, no spark, nothing.
4/ Why?
I read the timeline and it tells me:
a/"nobody owns BTC" (odd, I mean someone has to own BTC, there is a ton of BTC)
and
b/ "the gamblers have liquidated themselves (again)" - true, but it was always like this
5/ This TL feels different. This does not feel like
"fuck I got liquidated", it feels like malaise, tiredness.
Like boredom, to be honest.
I know you think it is the price action but the price action is obviously downstream from psychology.
6/ I have a different view of what is going on.
I think almost everyone forgot what matters, chased after things that did not matter and, we are in the process of discovering they don't matter.
7/ What matters? Only decentralization, only permissionlessness. Nothing else matters at all.
Everything else about crypto is WORSE than a centralized database and always will be because that is how computers work.
8/ In my view, basically everyone "major" except vitalik has strayed from the light on this.
Let's start with Team BTC which USED to be very interested in how to build a network that become nation-state resistant.
This was the BTC of Antonopoulos, of Lopp
9/ We are 5 years into the BTC of Saylor and that BTC is 100% about driving price action.
It is about driving flows to BTC, about getting fully integrated with the USA financial system.
10/ It sounds nice, it sounds better than the system beating us with a big stick, but the net effect is that more and more BTC ends up in Coinbase Custody in New York State
Nothing wrong with that, but none of that BTC is nation-state resistant.
It is 100% non-resistant to the US government specifically.
11/ The problem with this is that with permissionlessness off the table, the only thing left to drive purchases of BTC is FOMO.
"there are only 21M, they are going to run out, you need to buy some before others do and it goes exponential"
12/ I mean, maybe that is true.
I am not making price predictions, I still own BTC and always will I think.
But it is cringe, and it is wrong.
13/ You can think about this by taking it to the extreme case and trying to understand which of the two scenarios adds value to the world.
14/
Scenario A: Blackrock owns all 21M BTC, everyone on planet earth owns shares in the Blackrock ETF and Brian Armstrong is in charge of making sure we don't lose Our Precious
Scenario B: Everyone on earth has their own BTC wallet and BTC is distributed in several billion places around the world and it is literally impossible for any government to stop BTC
15/ In Scenario A, BTC is a complete and utter failure. It is just a pet rock. Yes it is "rare" but it is also "100% seize-able by the USA government"
At which point, it might as well be an IOU from the USA government that it pinky-swears is rare
16/ "but it is not like this because other nation-states are accumulating and game theory blah blah blah"
No my brothers and sisters.
The exact scenario where your BTC get seized is a) centralized and b) hyperbitcoinization
Maybe the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is happening and it is your ETF and $STRATEGY (TM) capital stack all along (thank you for your contribution to our national security)
17/ To be clear, nobody is seizing your BTC (let alone your ETH) now because it is not important enough yet.
But, if it was, I dunno, I would not trust those centralized vehicles.
CEO, Board, shareholders, SEC, US government, state government, custody firm, their regulators all have an angle of attack on a DAT.
18/ If USA seizes BTC, other countries won't save you:
EU: "Thank god our dreams have come true, we can ban it also"
UAE: "grumble grumble, but fine we will go along"
China: "ban. unban. ban. unban. anyway so long as currency is not free-floating, BTC won't be free here"
Russia: "someone falls out of a window"
19/ Of course, BTC in ETFs is by no means the worst of it. The "crypto's main use is a casino" crowd is the worst.
This is not a zero-sum game, it is a negative sum game because it is rigged.
20/ "what about the JPGs huh?" -> I still love them.
The best ones are the best tokens in the world by far, rare, suffused with meaning, with no external dependencies and great to hold on-chain.
And beyond the art JPGs, I think that NFTs can do many more things, but this is on me to "show, not tell"
21/ I want to circle back to BTC because it is the easiest to reason about.
When people explained to me time and time again that it was a ponzi, I had a simple explanation of why it is not.
21/ BTC lets you do some things better than the existing system. "be sovereign over your money" or "send money to anyone on the planet within minutes" or "maintain an insurance policy against the existing financial system"
22/ I could not tell you how much value this had, but I knew it was not zero.
In fact, the value went up the more people used it, the bigger the network was, the more people you could transact with, the more resilient it was to government censorship.
These are the economics of a network system, not of a ponzi.
23/ If you take this away, if you stop building a network but instead just, at the extreme, just sell everyone shares of the ETF, well there is no network, there is no incremental network value being generated by the next buyer.
24/ In this model, BTC becomes more ponzi-like.
If a new participant does not make the network stronger by joining, they are not adding value, therefore there is a fixed pie and it is just value transfer to an existing holder.
25/ Again, take it to the extreme other direction -> assume we managed to move the whole economy to decentralized rails.
I think that world would be better, it would make better decisions, it would take advantage of the wisdom of crowds, there would be more transparency, less rent-seeking and the aggregate value of the world goes up because it is more productive.
Some % of the improved value of the world will get captured by the early participants to the network (which is normal and fair) but some % will be captured by everyone (as a late participant or consumer).
26/ But if we don't make the world better, if the world is exactly what it is, but also we play with a pet rock, this will not happen and, well, eventually playing with pet rocks gets very boring
27/ So what to do?
The same things you always should do:
a/ push yourself, and by extension, the world an inch, a foot, a mile down the pathway of decentralization.
many ways to do this, it is a journey, start today.
b/ remember, you, yes, you in the mirror have no business trading perps or day-trading stupid coins.
you are bad at it and your future self will be mad at your current self.
28/ If you must do it, carve out a budget and test how great you are across the cycle with your budget (1%, 5%, 10%, 20% of your portfolio, not all of it)
I am of course a dinosaur, but my total portfolio % of "putting money into stupid coins I have been FOMOed into it" is less than 1%. It has gone about as well as you might expect.
29/ Other than that, own some BTC, some ETH, some NFTs (good ones, that you like) in a self-custodial wallet, a small number of your favorite alts if you must.
And keep your job. Earn money, don't try to be a pro crypto trader, this is an imaginary job that only cobie and like 5 other people are qualified for.
I have always worked, every single day of my adult life. You should too.
30/ Crypto is a bad way to get rich quick, but a decent way to get rich slowly. In any case, you should have some stake in the decentralized world, in the digital world.
31/ I think in the end, "it" will be OK but "it" it not everything, it is not most things. As it always was, most coins will go to zero, most NFTs will go to zero. These are the rules of the game.
32/ Most of you are young. You have time, you have time into the ASI world, you have the greatest gift and wealth of all. You will be ok.
33/ Don't mope. It does not help anything. If you are bummed out, sad about your outcomes, there is only one sure thing that helps.
Get back to working.
34/ Even if you are young, life is short, your life is the important thing, money is just a game, just a tool, just an information system.
Don't anchor to your wealth, don't anchor to your ATH, it is not real, my ATH wealth has gone down 90% multiple times. Note it and just keep going.
If you are healthy, in a decent country, in a half-decent economic situation, you are better off than almost anyone who has ever lived
35/ If you have an opinion (even a dumb one) about Monad or Grifters, you are in the 0.001% most forward thinking people in the world.
Did you make a "mistake"?
Who cares, everyone makes mistakes - keep going, keep trying, keep making mistakes, eventually you will find your way, you will get a win.
This is how it goes.
36/ use a hardware wallet and even better a SAFE
37/ and to close again with the most important thing. decentralization is the only thing that matters.
if you go in that direction, if we go in that direction, in the end, it will be ok.
i have no doubt about this, i have never had any doubts about this, it matters so much more than you think it does.
/the end
This will go down in history as the Great Shakeout of 2025, and I'd like to offer some perspective, some positivity and hope for people in the crypto market here.
Lots of people are clearly hurting now, we've been delivered multiple punches recently and lots of people are showing signs of losing faith, some partially and some altogether. Losing money is painful and it is without doubt an emotional game.
Do bare in mind that everything is only ever a paper win or loss until you have actually sold.
The greatest victims in this market are those who think they can outsmart or guess where the market is going by leveraging and longing or shorting the market.
Trading with leverage in the crypto market is financial suicide - just stop it, it is the fastest way for people to destroy their chances within what is the greatest wealth accumulation opportunity of all time.
I have always remembered Raoul Pal's ( @RaoulGMI ) position on it, leveraging has always been a key part of his @RealVision's "Don't Fuck This Up" thesis, and today those words couldn't be more abundantly clear.
Lots of people are crying about market manipulation, yet they are out there placing leverage, long or short positions. Is this not a bit like playing poker and letting everyone know what your cards are before they lay their hands?
All we are doing here is allowing the exchanges, the market makers, the institutions and the whales to enter the market with far greater financial power to counter positions and liquidate them, which is what is repeatedly happening. I've no idea how people do not recognise this.
For everyone who are shouting the market is over, or are sitting there fearing as much, just take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
We are on the verge of a solid rate cutting cycle. Trillions of dollars of debt across the world needs to be refinanced. QT is about to end which will be followed buy QE, massive liquidity is going to be flooding in. The entire global monetary system is in the process of being migrated on-chain. No bear market has ever been born out of fear, it comes from peak euphoria, which we clearly haven't even touched. We have key regulatory acts that are on the cusp of being announced. Financial institutions are buying crypto. Actual countries are buying cryptos. ETF's are being approved. We are in the glorious position of being able to take part in what is the greatest financial revolution of all time - let that sink in.
The reality is the crypto space has never, ever looked this bullish before and what we are seeing now will go down as the greatest shakeout. Don't become a victim of it.
I have always said that the key to maximising the gains in this market is to buy solid utility projects with real fundamentals that will attract real adoption. Buy with conviction, hold and do nothing. Shut out the noise, and simply do nothing. It is also the key to riding the multiple drawdowns that are characteristic within every bull cycle, and now is no different.
Crypto isn't for the faint-hearted, you have to program yourself differently when navigating this market.
Those who overestimate their own intelligence, who are constantly buying in and selling out, changing lanes, thinking they can predict the market, taking long and short positions and chasing dick-driven greed through insane leveraging will invariably become the fallen soldiers of the market, and will ruin their chances in the greatest wealth accumulation opportunity of all time. And those who buy, hold, shut out the noise, and do nothing, will most likely achieve the success they set out to achieve.
I can't emphasise this enough but for anyone who is looking to educate themselves and to gain an advantage in navigating the crypto space, and who want to develop an understanding of the things that truly drives asset prices, take a look at joining Real Vision @RealVision, it is by far the best thing I ever did.
The team are incredible and it has a fantastic community for you to connect with. The information and insights they part with is pound-for-pound the most valuable alpha and intelligence that you could possibly absorb. The intelligence and understanding you will gain will help you to sail through these shit storms with a far greater calmness, to take a step back from the chaos and shut out the noise.
As always, stay calm and don't fuck this up.
Holders will outperform traders.