Novice and aspiring market speculators think the magic is found in trade identification.
The "what" and "when" components of trading -- while necessary -- represent only about 5% of a trader's "edge."
Yet aspiring traders spend 80% of their time, energy, hopes and fears on trade identification and the next trade.
The real landmine in trading is self-sabotage. Dealing with human emotions is the battle line that matters.
You want to know yourself, I mean really know yourself -- the good, the bad and the ugly?
Become a trader.
This is why all the trading services who talk about their last trade (made 250% on XYZ) is such an absolute joke.
Trading services who talk about their winners are trading services you must avoid at all costs.
The real enemy in trading is self.
You want to know your biggest enemy to trading success? Well, just look in a mirror. It is you, not what you know or don't know, that keeps you from gaining traction in trading.
After three to five years of experience a person should know what they need to do to be profitable. The challenge is actually doing what you know you must do.
The task is overcoming self.
@PeterLBrandt The text was excellent. Learning to read the market is extremely difficult. two steps forward and one step back. After developing a trading system, the real journey is just beginning: gaining the ability to execute that system consistently and a deeper understanding of yourself.
A harsh reality
Are you out to turn a little into a lot in a hurry?
Look folks, there has been tons of research done on the success rate of retail traders. By exchanges, regulatory agencies, brokerage houses, trading platforms, academic researchers and the like.
The numbers are in and you are a fool to begin with if you think your are an outlier -- although all retail traders think they are outliers (and they usually are on the left side of the bell curve distribution).
Expectations and eagerness to trade for the sake of money are inversely correlated with success. Sorry, but true (of course except for in your dream world).
You want to turn $50k into $5 million in five years? Well, go for it if you that is your dream. But know that professional career traders in zero-sum markets (like futures, day trading anything and crypto) plead with you to trade their asset class. Please, I beg you to trade futures (my asset class).
Fresh meat is always welcomed.
Maybe you are among the 2 in 1,000 that can with a few years of experience achieve back-to-back-to back-100% years. I do not want to do anything to prevent your effort. I wish you well. In 50 years I've witnessed many try.
Or, do you have realistic profit expectations and want to become excellent in some niche of market speculation?
Then you have a chance.
But your chance depends on your ability to protect your capital and avoid big losses.
Here is the reality folks -- the real world where 99% of us live.
Pick your asset class. Now have adequate capital (the amt is disputable but I use the figure of $50k). Next know that no matter what you do it will take three to five years to even pick up the scent of where your excellence might be hiding.
Your challenge will be to develop some scheme or system or approach that is repeatable. Every successful trader has a different method. No exceptions. You cannot copy anyone. There are reasons why I won't go into.
You might have to try a few different approaches to find what methods are suitable to you.
But here is the HUGE challenge you face.
You will have to keep your capital intact (relatively speaking) or have deep pockets to get through the three to five years of the steep learning curve.
You will also need to avoid the fast talkers who want you to believe they have your answers.
Following are appeals I received via email in just the past week from "reputable" trading services (these are verbatim):
-$10,000 into $30,417. 14 out of 20 trades doubled
-that's a 1,004% return in 6 days, turning a $605 bet into $6,684
-1004% on UMAC
- +100% on BBAI in a day
-See how stock flips could have made $92,000 in one year!
-Soured 1,025% in just six months
-convinced this could be this year's next 1,000%
You fall for these lines, you are done for. Another reality is that not everyone is made for crazy success in trading. Most people would be better off living frugally and putting as much money as they can into a 50% SPY, 30% fixed income, 10% energy and 10% precious metals portfolio and let it work over time. Then pursue a day job that excites you.
So, don't be conned by the circus acts that promise you the moon. Trading is hard work. Tedious. Boring often. Stressful.
My standard recommendation to most young people is to get an education in a field that you like and where jobs are available. Like welding. Or supply chain management. Or engineering.
98% of you young folks will thank me for this advice someday.
Happy Bitcoin Pizza Day! 🍕
In celebration, we are giving away 10,000 $S to one lucky winner.
To enter, you must:
- RT this post
- Comment your favorite pizza order
Winner will be announced in 24 hours.
Goodluck!
@PeterLBrandt You can have a profitable strategy and a real edge, yet still break your own rules in certain moments. The strange part is that while it’s happening, you don’t even realize you’re losing awareness until the damage is already done. 😐
@AndreCronjeTech Fucking scammers. Andre and his team scammed billions out of @SonicLabs holders and they intend to scam a lot of people with the new @flyingtulip_ project
@AndreCronjeTech Fucking scammers. Andre and his team scammed billions out of @SonicLabs holders and they intend to scam a lot of people with the new @flyingtulip_ project
@AndreCronjeTech Fucking scammers. Andre and his team scammed billions out of @SonicLabs holders and they intend to scam a lot of people with the new FT project
@AndreCronjeTech Fucking scammers. Andre and his team scammed billions out of @SonicLabs holders and they intend to scam a lot of people with the new FT project
@AndreCronjeTech@sealaunch_ Fucking scammers. Andre and his team scammed billions out of @SonicLabs holders and they intend to scam a lot of people with the new FT project
@flyingtulip_ Fucking scammers. Andre and his team scammed billions out of @SonicLabs holders and they intend to scam a lot of people with the new FT project
@AndreCronjeTech Fucking scammers. Andre and his team scammed billions out of @SonicLabs holders and they intend to scam a lot of people with the new FT project
@AndreCronjeTech Fucking scammers. Andre and his team scsmmed billions out of @SonicLabs holders and they intend to scam a lot of people with the new FT project
Happy New Year, everyone! 🥂
To celebrate, we’re giving 1,500 USDC to one lucky member of the community.
To enter:
- Like and retweet this post
- Share your most ambitious goal for 2026 in the comments
Good luck! 🤝