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$BTC: Falling wedge + bullish divergence.
We are getting dangerously close to what could be the bear market bottom.
Can it still go lower? Absolutely.
Can it fake everyone out first? Also yes.
Divergences take time to develop. 2022 already taught that lesson.
Everyoneβs hyping βvibe codedβ apps and screaming βcoding has no futureβ π₯
Yet nobodyβs talking about the elephant in the room: almost no one is actually vibe coded apps.
People still prefer quality over quantity.
Real engineering always wins.
π― Market Outlook
BTC defended the 200-week SMA on the weekly close, USDT Dominance rejected hard at that 8.78% weekly resistance, and the entire market ripped off the lows. The catalyst was the war finally ending, with the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to solidify the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and open a 60-day window for nuclear talks, brokered by Pakistan. A formal signing ceremony is set for Friday in Switzerland. Crude has continued bleeding lower on the de-escalation, which is the disinflationary signal the Fed wanted right before its decision.
Today we're seeing everything consolidate after yesterday's gains, basically flat ahead of the main event, which is the FOMC rate decision tomorrow, with Warsh's first statement as Fed Chair. With that said, I wouldn't expect a cut. This week's hot inflation prints took 2026 cuts off the table (for now). But the oil pullback has quieted the rate-hike talks, so a measured hold is the base case. The real fuel here was de-risking the single biggest macro overhang of the year (the war), not the Fed. Fear & Greed is climbing off extreme fear but we're not euphoric yet, which is healthy. I'm still expecting tomorrow to mark the local lows if there's any negative catalyst. Now we wait.
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π° Key News Events
- US housing starts fell 15.4% in May to their lowest level since May 2020, as the war-driven rate environment is finally being priced in.
- Iran's FM warned that continued Israeli presence or strikes in southern Lebanon would violate the emerging understanding. Israel said troops stay, stating bluntly that "Trump's agreement does not bind us", the one live thread that could still unravel this.
- The Bank of Japan delivered a rate hike overnight and Australia's central bank also moved with global central-bank divergence as the Fed sits down.
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π Upcoming Events
- Jun 17th - FOMC meeting, Warsh's first as Fed Chair.
- Jun 19th - US-Iran MOU signing ceremony in Switzerland.
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π BTC Analysis
BTC did exactly what it needed to, defended the 200-week SMA near 61k and ripped back through 65.4k, which now flips to support. It's pressing the 67.7kk resistance with the RSI recovering from oversold, but the StochRSI is now overbought, which could lead to a short-term pullback. A daily close above 68.3k opens 70.8k and then the 73.6k zone, especially if a dovish Fed lands tomorrow. Lose 65.4k on a retest and we're back to chopping between 62.8k and 65.4k while the base builds.
Support: 65.4k, 62.8k, 61k, 60k, 58.2k
Resistance: 65.9k, 68.3k, 70.8k, 73.6k
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π ETH Analysis
ETH is finally above the 1720-1760 resistance but is stalling just below its weekly trendline resistance. The RSI is recovering but the StochRSI is now overbought, which would likely mean a retest into the 1720-1760 support zone. A daily close above 1830 confirms the breakout, while a rejection there and our support zone gets retested, with 1540-1580 as the bid zone if it fails.
Support: 1720-1760, 1540-1580, 1390
Resistance: 1830, 1940, 2000
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π SOL Analysis
SOL has been the strongest of the majors, as it reclaimed the 68-70 zone (now support) and is pressing toward 76-78. The SpaceX tokenization and staked-ETF catalysts are giving it real relative strength compared to most. The RSI is recovering but the StochRSI is now overbought, combined with the resistance zone + 50D EMA, means we could be in for some consolidation until we confirm a daily close above. Until then, manage risk accordingly, as these cascades resume fast if the FOMC disappoints or the Lebanon thread flares back up.
Support: 68-70, 61-63, 57, 47
Resistance: 76-78, 81-83 <@&1422455572967456778>
Iβll say it again, please Renault make this a production vehicle. Youβll sell out. Become very very popular again.
Anyone at Renault, slide into my dms