David

[David @shift_ftw]

And to think these maniacs took it to 3.6x (NTM) just a couple months ago.

[Velina Tchakarova @vtchakarova]

https://t.co/2yBGaiFZGu

[David @shift_ftw]

This was 4 days ago on the WSJ, gets em everytime.

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

🚨 "An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed..." - President Donald J. Trump

[David @shift_ftw]

@hikingtheglobe0 Vancouver

[David @shift_ftw]

We're at this stage in SSD markets

[Dylan Patel @dylan522p]

Claude Code spend had gotten to $10.95M runrate peak at SemiAnalysis
But then Opus 4.7 saved me.
More token effecient for tasks, smarter, and no fast mode.
Thank you @AnthropicAI
You saved me from bankruptcy

[David @shift_ftw]

Just when you thought "they can't keep getting away with this!!!"

[Milton W Berg CFA @BergMilton]

NASDAQ gained in price for 11 days straight, and the SOX index gained >20% in 10 days. This momentum combination occurred twice before. It was followed by gains of +26.84% in 154 days and +27.58% in 190 days. In both instances there was 0.00% pullback in the S&P 500 index.

[David @shift_ftw]

Crazy times were living in where we need to test AI models' ability to refuse launching bow weapons.

[Alexandr Wang @alexandr_wang]

4/ we conducted extensive safety evaluations before deployment, both before and after applying mitigations across frontier risk categories, behavioral alignment, and adversarial robustness. we found muse spark demonstrated strong refusal behavior across high-risk domains such as biological and chemical weapons.

[David @shift_ftw]

Kospi.. more like 코피. 🩸

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Kospi -6%, bigger drop than Liberation day, worst day since August 2024 carry trade unwind

[David @shift_ftw]

Kospi.. more like 코피 as we enter the nosebleed section.

[Mac10 @SuburbanDrone]

Korean stock market FOMO risks crash:
https://t.co/VEwjqHECsk
"The Bank of Korea noted rising market volatility and investor anxiety, with VKOSPI spiking to levels typical of market crashes"

It's very unusual for implied options volatility to rise during a rally unless there is extreme reach for call options. Normally volatility spikes at the lows not the highs.

Imagine what volatility will be like at these lows:

[David @shift_ftw]

"The system turned out to be one long daisy chain of correlated bets on white-collar productivity growth."

[Citrini @citrini]

JUNE 2028.

The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation.

What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

https://t.co/JzzwCrbJgS

[BuccoCapital Bloke @buccocapital]

For 50 yrs we treated the supremacy of asset-light businesses as a permanent economic law

But if AI commoditizes asset-light businesses, we’d just be reverting to the historical mean where value accrued to atoms, infrastructure, energy

It would be a 50 year blip. An anomaly

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Waller dissented for a cut and noted significant downside risks to labor as many of his contacts suggested upcoming layoffs. Looks like he may be right.

[Citrini @citrini]

How tall is Kevin Warsh?

[David @shift_ftw]

@yuriymatso Generous severance packages?

[Boris Cherny @bcherny]

As always, a very thoughtful and well reasoned take. I read till the end.

I think the Claude Code team itself might be an indicator of where things are headed. We have directional answers for some (not all) of the prompts:

1. We hire mostly generalists. We have a mix of senior engineers and less senior since not all of the things people learned in the past translate to coding with LLMs. As you said, the model can fill in the details. 10x engineers definitely exist, and they often span across multiple areas — product and design, product and business, product and infra (@jarredsumner is a great example of the latter. Yes, he’s blushing).
2. Pretty much 100% of our code is written by Claude Code + Opus 4.5. For me personally it has been 100% for two+ months now, I don’t even make small edits by hand. I shipped 22 PRs yesterday and 27 the day before, each one 100% written by Claude. Some were written from a CLI, some from the iOS app; others on the team code largely with the Claude Code app Slack or with the Desktop app. I think most of the industry will see similar stats in the coming months — it will take more time for some vs others. We will then start seeing similar stats for non-coding computer work also.
3. The code quality problems you listed are real: the model over-complicates things, it leaves dead code around, it doesn’t like to refactor when it should. These will continue improve as the model improves, and our code quality bar will go up even more as a result. My bet is that there will be no slopcopolypse because the model will become better at writing less sloppy code and at fixing existing code issues; I think 4.5 is already quite good at these and it will continue to get better. In the meantime, what helps is also having the model code review its code using a fresh context window; at Anthropic we use claude -p for this on every PR and it catches and fixes many issues.

Overall your ideas very much resonate. Thanks again for sharing. ✌️

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

A few random notes from claude coding quite a bit last few weeks.

Coding workflow. Given the latest lift in LLM coding capability, like many others I rapidly went from about 80% manual+autocomplete coding and 20% agents in November to 80% agent coding and 20% edits+touchups in December. i.e. I really am mostly programming in English now, a bit sheepishly telling the LLM what code to write... in words. It hurts the ego a bit but the power to operate over software in large "code actions" is just too net useful, especially once you adapt to it, configure it, learn to use it, and wrap your head around what it can and cannot do. This is easily the biggest change to my basic coding workflow in ~2 decades of programming and it happened over the course of a few weeks. I'd expect something similar to be happening to well into double digit percent of engineers out there, while the awareness of it in the general population feels well into low single digit percent.

IDEs/agent swarms/fallability. Both the "no need for IDE anymore" hype and the "agent swarm" hype is imo too much for right now. The models definitely still make mistakes and if you have any code you actually care about I would watch them like a hawk, in a nice large IDE on the side. The mistakes have changed a lot - they are not simple syntax errors anymore, they are subtle conceptual errors that a slightly sloppy, hasty junior dev might do. The most common category is that the models make wrong assumptions on your behalf and just run along with them without checking. They also don't manage their confusion, they don't seek clarifications, they don't surface inconsistencies, they don't present tradeoffs, they don't push back when they should, and they are still a little too sycophantic. Things get better in plan mode, but there is some need for a lightweight inline plan mode. They also really like to overcomplicate code and APIs, they bloat abstractions, they don't clean up dead code after themselves, etc. They will implement an inefficient, bloated, brittle construction over 1000 lines of code and it's up to you to be like "umm couldn't you just do this instead?" and they will be like "of course!" and immediately cut it down to 100 lines. They still sometimes change/remove comments and code they don't like or don't sufficiently understand as side effects, even if it is orthogonal to the task at hand. All of this happens despite a few simple attempts to fix it via instructions in CLAUDE . md. Despite all these issues, it is still a net huge improvement and it's very difficult to imagine going back to manual coding. TLDR everyone has their developing flow, my current is a small few CC sessions on the left in ghostty windows/tabs and an IDE on the right for viewing the code + manual edits.

Tenacity. It's so interesting to watch an agent relentlessly work at something. They never get tired, they never get demoralized, they just keep going and trying things where a person would have given up long ago to fight another day. It's a "feel the AGI" moment to watch it struggle with something for a long time just to come out victorious 30 minutes later. You realize that stamina is a core bottleneck to work and that with LLMs in hand it has been dramatically increased.

Speedups. It's not clear how to measure the "speedup" of LLM assistance. Certainly I feel net way faster at what I was going to do, but the main effect is that I do a lot more than I was going to do because 1) I can code up all kinds of things that just wouldn't have been worth coding before and 2) I can approach code that I couldn't work on before because of knowledge/skill issue. So certainly it's speedup, but it's possibly a lot more an expansion.

Leverage. LLMs are exceptionally good at looping until they meet specific goals and this is where most of the "feel the AGI" magic is to be found. Don't tell it what to do, give it success criteria and watch it go. Get it to write tests first and then pass them. Put it in the loop with a browser MCP. Write the naive algorithm that is very likely correct first, then ask it to optimize it while preserving correctness. Change your approach from imperative to declarative to get the agents looping longer and gain leverage.

Fun. I didn't anticipate that with agents programming feels *more* fun because a lot of the fill in the blanks drudgery is removed and what remains is the creative part. I also feel less blocked/stuck (which is not fun) and I experience a lot more courage because there's almost always a way to work hand in hand with it to make some positive progress. I have seen the opposite sentiment from other people too; LLM coding will split up engineers based on those who primarily liked coding and those who primarily liked building.

Atrophy. I've already noticed that I am slowly starting to atrophy my ability to write code manually. Generation (writing code) and discrimination (reading code) are different capabilities in the brain. Largely due to all the little mostly syntactic details involved in programming, you can review code just fine even if you struggle to write it.

Slopacolypse. I am bracing for 2026 as the year of the slopacolypse across all of github, substack, arxiv, X/instagram, and generally all digital media. We're also going to see a lot more AI hype productivity theater (is that even possible?), on the side of actual, real improvements.

Questions. A few of the questions on my mind:
- What happens to the "10X engineer" - the ratio of productivity between the mean and the max engineer? It's quite possible that this grows *a lot*.
- Armed with LLMs, do generalists increasingly outperform specialists? LLMs are a lot better at fill in the blanks (the micro) than grand strategy (the macro).
- What does LLM coding feel like in the future? Is it like playing StarCraft? Playing Factorio? Playing music?
- How much of society is bottlenecked by digital knowledge work?

TLDR Where does this leave us? LLM agent capabilities (Claude & Codex especially) have crossed some kind of threshold of coherence around December 2025 and caused a phase shift in software engineering and closely related. The intelligence part suddenly feels quite a bit ahead of all the rest of it - integrations (tools, knowledge), the necessity for new organizational workflows, processes, diffusion more generally. 2026 is going to be a high energy year as the industry metabolizes the new capability.

[Citrini @citrini]

https://t.co/BWlBJctAqB

[David @shift_ftw]

It is sneaky. Though it’s still more than your next best general cash back card (2%). So if you look at it from a percentage standpoint it is 50% more but redemption is 30% less so net it’s still about 15% more to redeem as credit to your statement. But as others have pointed out, you can redeem it fully if you transfer to your Robinhood brokerage account.