The market's down over 6,000 points today, a little more than 3%...
This one has a real trigger behind it, the US put the naval blockade back on Iran and added a 20% levy on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz...
Pakistan feels this harder than most. Around 80% of our crude comes in through Hormuz, and Qatar plus the UAE are basically our entire LNG supply. There's no back door on this one.
The chain from there is simple. Hormuz gets squeezed, global oil spikes, our import bill balloons, the rupee wears the pressure, and imported inflation creeps back right when it was finally cooling to 11%. Some estimates put inflation at 15-17% if the disruption turns severe.
That's the real fear the tape is pricing, not just a scary headline
The sectors bleeding most make sense, OMCs, autos, cement, power, fertilizer, anything that runs on imported energy or a steady rupee.
The part I'm sitting with:
Panic and priced-in risk aren't the same thing, a blockade that gets negotiated down in a week is a completely different animal from one that holds for months, and nobody knows which one this is on day one. So I'm not adding into the fear, just watching whether this is a headline or a trend. 24 ghantay ka rule, let the story survive a day before you trade it
If Argentina 🇦🇷 defeats Switzerland 🇨🇭 today they will become the 1st nation in World Cup history to reach the semifinals without facing a single top 15 ranked opponent.
Five-time champions 🇧🇷 Brazil: Knocked out in round of 16
Four-time champions 🇩🇪 Germany: Knocked out in round of 32
Four-time champions 🇮🇹 Italy: Did not qualify for the World Cup
Amreeka mein load shedding? Due to extreme temperatures in the US largest power grid of the country PJM says it is no longer able to provide expected energy requirements