shivie @shivie123 - Twitter Profile

shivie @shivie123

8 months ago

@meta_alchemist 0x1968102dd2426ce6975931390bb51fc5bfb58237

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shivie @shivie123

8 months ago

Just unlocked my Gas ID via ETHGas 🪪 I'm a Legendary Jack with 23.0187 ETH spent on gas since Beacon Chain - now fueling my climb to the Gasless Future and earned 4000 Beans already. Reveal yours at https://t.co/3zACAOkKIh

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shivie @shivie123

8 months ago

Just unlocked my Gas ID via ETHGas 🪪 I'm a Legendary Jack with 23.0187 ETH spent on gas since Beacon Chain - now fueling my climb to the Gasless Future and earned 4000 Beans already. Reveal yours at https://t.co/3zACAOkcSJ

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shivie @shivie123

10 months ago

Can we stop pretending like this isnt straight AI copy and paste and completely larp? Anyone with half a brain can tell you trump has very little chance of making it into the top 5 and zohran at 6% is laughable here - dyor before believing shit like this

gemchanger

@gemchange_ltd

11 months ago

The $1.7M Google Search Arbitrage Nobody's Talking About I spent 72 hours straight building a probabilistic model for Google's Top 5 Most Searched People in 2025. The results were so extreme I ran the simulations again. Then again. Then 10,000 more times. The answer kept coming back the same: The market is wrong by a factor of 3x on multiple outcomes. This isn't about having an opinion. This is about math vs. mob psychology. Let me show you the data. https://t.co/4Z5gajLrxW The Setup The core question: Who will rank among Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in 2025? The money in volume spread across twelve candidates, but the market is badly mispriced, driven by narratives, not numbers. To test it, I compiled two decades of Google Year in Search data (2004-2024), analyzed decay rates from over 200 major global events, built a Monte Carlo model with 47 independent variables, and ran 10,000 simulations. The outcome was consistent: three positions are undervalued by 2-3x, one is an 8x short. Pope Leo XIV Market: 82% | Model: 92% | Volume: $170K Everyone assumes a papal election guarantees massive coverage, but few notice that May 2025, the expected election month, shifts the entire probability curve. Historically, popes elected earlier in the year have longer coverage windows, Francis (March 2013) ranked #2 globally; Benedict XVI (April 2005) hit #3; John Paul II’s death in April 2005 reached #1. Leo XIV’s projected timeline covers nearly eight months of continuous attention: election, first tours, speeches, and retrospectives. Papal elections have a 100% Top 5 hit rate in the modern search era. An 82% market price is too low; mathematically, this should trade near 90%+. Donald Trump Market: 44% | Model: 70% | Volume: $606K This volume tells the story. Over a third of total market money traded on one man. Someone is flipping hardly. January 20, 2025 marks Trump’s second inauguration. In 2017, he ranked #1 globally that week, #2 for the month, and stayed Top 3 through Q1. Add to that the “compound interest” effect, Trump generates consistent spikes through controversies, legal updates, policy drops, and summits. He dominates Q1 (inauguration), shares Q2 spotlight with the new Pope, then sustains Q3-Q4 through global and domestic events. For Trump to miss Top 5, he’d need no controversies, minimal coverage, and global media restraint, conditions with less than 15% probability. The model’s 70% vs. market’s 44% creates a 1.6x edge. Taylor Swift Market: 15% | Model: 48% | Volume: $89K This is the biggest inefficiency. The market is anchored to her “quiet” 2024, ignoring that 2025 is a stacked year. February brings the Super Bowl, Kelce on the field, Swift in the stands, global cameras fixed on her. October closes the Eras Tour in Vancouver, likely followed by a film or documentary. Add the high chance (55%) of an engagement or breakup, and an 85% probability of a new album release, the timing is perfect for sustained attention through Q4. To miss the Top 5, every catalyst above would have to fail. Statistically, that’s under 10%. Her fair value sits near 48%, not 15%. This is the trade of the year. Zohran Mamdani Market: 48% | Model: 6% | Volume: $57K The market has lost its mind here. No U.S. mayor has ever entered Google’s global Top 50 - not even New York’s. Giuliani’s 2001 ranking came only after 9/11. Mamdani’s odds imply global recognition from a city of eight million, 0.1% of the world’s population- overtaking presidents, popes, and megastars. Even if he wins, media coverage remains local. This short is as close to free money as it gets. The Supporting Field Kendrick Lamar (38% - fair 22%) = Only one major event (Super Bowl). Not enough sustained volume. Elon Musk (41% - fair 28%) = 2025 brings fatigue, not frenzy. Bianca Censori (65% - fair 18%) = Overhyped tabloid figure. Even Kim Kardashian never hit Top 5. Jimmy Kimmel (38% - fair 8%) = Late-night hosts have zero precedent in Top 10. NFA DYOR

gemchange_ltd's tweet photo. The $1.7M Google Search Arbitrage Nobody's Talking About

I spent 72 hours straight building a probabilistic model for Google's Top 5 Most Searched People in 2025. The results were so extreme I ran the simulations again. Then again. Then 10,000 more times. The answer kept coming back the same: The market is wrong by a factor of 3x on multiple outcomes.

This isn't about having an opinion. This is about math vs. mob psychology. Let me show you the data.

https://t.co/4Z5gajLrxW

The Setup

The core question: Who will rank among Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in 2025?

The money in volume spread across twelve candidates, but the market is badly mispriced, driven by narratives, not numbers. To test it, I compiled two decades of Google Year in Search data (2004-2024), analyzed decay rates from over 200 major global events, built a Monte Carlo model with 47 independent variables, and ran 10,000 simulations. The outcome was consistent: three positions are undervalued by 2-3x, one is an 8x short.

Pope Leo XIV

Market: 82% | Model: 92% | Volume: $170K

Everyone assumes a papal election guarantees massive coverage, but few notice that May 2025, the expected election month, shifts the entire probability curve. Historically, popes elected earlier in the year have longer coverage windows, Francis (March 2013) ranked #2 globally; Benedict XVI (April 2005) hit #3; John Paul II’s death in April 2005 reached #1.

Leo XIV’s projected timeline covers nearly eight months of continuous attention: election, first tours, speeches, and retrospectives. Papal elections have a 100% Top 5 hit rate in the modern search era. An 82% market price is too low; mathematically, this should trade near 90%+.

Donald Trump

Market: 44% | Model: 70% | Volume: $606K

This volume tells the story. Over a third of total market money traded on one man. Someone is flipping hardly.

January 20, 2025 marks Trump’s second inauguration. In 2017, he ranked #1 globally that week, #2 for the month, and stayed Top 3 through Q1. Add to that the “compound interest” effect, Trump generates consistent spikes through controversies, legal updates, policy drops, and summits.

He dominates Q1 (inauguration), shares Q2 spotlight with the new Pope, then sustains Q3-Q4 through global and domestic events. For Trump to miss Top 5, he’d need no controversies, minimal coverage, and global media restraint, conditions with less than 15% probability. The model’s 70% vs. market’s 44% creates a 1.6x edge.

Taylor Swift

Market: 15% | Model: 48% | Volume: $89K

This is the biggest inefficiency. The market is anchored to her “quiet” 2024, ignoring that 2025 is a stacked year.

February brings the Super Bowl, Kelce on the field, Swift in the stands, global cameras fixed on her. October closes the Eras Tour in Vancouver, likely followed by a film or documentary. Add the high chance (55%) of an engagement or breakup, and an 85% probability of a new album release, the timing is perfect for sustained attention through Q4.

To miss the Top 5, every catalyst above would have to fail. Statistically, that’s under 10%. Her fair value sits near 48%, not 15%. This is the trade of the year.

Zohran Mamdani

Market: 48% | Model: 6% | Volume: $57K

The market has lost its mind here. No U.S. mayor has ever entered Google’s global Top 50 - not even New York’s. Giuliani’s 2001 ranking came only after 9/11. Mamdani’s odds imply global recognition from a city of eight million, 0.1% of the world’s population- overtaking presidents, popes, and megastars. Even if he wins, media coverage remains local. This short is as close to free money as it gets.

The Supporting Field
Kendrick Lamar (38% - fair 22%) = Only one major event (Super Bowl). Not enough sustained volume.
Elon Musk (41% - fair 28%) = 2025 brings fatigue, not frenzy.
Bianca Censori (65% - fair 18%) = Overhyped tabloid figure. Even Kim Kardashian never hit Top 5.
Jimmy Kimmel (38% - fair 8%) = Late-night hosts have zero precedent in Top 10.

NFA DYOR

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shivie @shivie123

10 months ago

@eBay_UK Please respond to my DM its urgent about my account

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shivie @shivie123

10 months ago

@Wise Please respond to my DM

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shivie @shivie123

10 months ago

It makes no sense for MSTR to sell any of their BTC holdings unless its a last resort. I bet no here at 79c but it was possible to get in at 70. Some FUD going around caused No to dump for a nice get in. https://t.co/6NieQEO3uK $MSTR knows the implications that them selling BTC will have - Tank of the BTC market price and tank of their share price. And no, they can't just "Buy the dip" - Their buying power drastically decreases as BTC goes down. Follow for more @Polymarket plays

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shivie @shivie123

11 months ago

Is it really different this time? $ZEC

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shivie @shivie123

11 months ago

Wondering why wild Polymarket bets like "China invades Taiwan" (49%), "Bitcoin hits $1M" (47%), and "Jesus Christ returns" (47%) are priced so high in the "What will happen before GTA VI?" markets? It's all about GTA 6's delay to Nov. 19, 2026 - pushing it past the July 31, 2026 cutoff. Resolution rules: Event before GTA 6? Yes (100%). GTA 6 first? No (0%). Neither by cutoff? 50-50 split. With GTA 6 now post-cutoff, these "ridiculous" events auto-resolve at 50% if nothing happens by July making "Yes" shares under 50¢ a smart arb play. Traders piled in, spiking odds. Smart Traders instantly flocked to these markets - buying anything under 50c #GTA6 #Polymarket https://t.co/rWhhnFTsit