Affordable housing finance companies had around 10% share of total HFC loan books in 2021 & has now moved closer to 18%, with around ₹1.55 lakh crore of AUM. More than 60% of borrowers in this segment are self employed or come from informal income categories.
Many of these borrowers are small businessmen, shop owners, traders or self employed people whose actual cash flow may be much better than what shows up in formal income documents. Banks (specially the lather sized ones) are generally more comfortable with salaried borrowers and standard income proofs. Affordable HFCs rely more on local underwriting, cash flow assessment, property value and actually understanding the customer. The 5 listed companies are the major players in the same broad space, but the growth, margins & valuations are very different. Let's dive into the finer details for each of them.
✨️ Home First Finance:
Management is targeting around 22 to 25% AUM growth and RoA is above 3.6%. Its digital underwriting model has helped it scale well, including among self employed borrowers. At around ₹1,200 levels HomeFirst is near 2.6x FY27 adjusted book & 2.3x FY28. The business and growth are clearly visible but you are paying up for that quality.
✨️Aavas Financiers: At around ₹1,400 levels, Aavas trades closer to 2x FY27 adjusted book and 1.8x FY28. Management is targeting around 17 to 18% AUM growth while keeping credit costs below 25 bps, with RoA around 3.3 to 3.5%. The business quality is already well known and the valuation looks more comfortable than some peers.
✨️ Aadhar Housing Finance: Aadhar has scale and a wide branch network across smaller towns and semi urban markets. Management is targeting around 20 to 22% AUM growth. At around ₹500 levels Aadhar stock trades near 2.4x FY27 adjusted book and 2x FY28. Its size can help on funding costs and distribution. But with a large branch network, maintaining the same underwriting standards everywhere becomes equally important.
✨️India Shelter Finance: India Shelter stands out on growth, with management targeting 25% plus AUM growth while expanding into South India. At around ₹640 levels, it trades near 2x FY27 adjusted book and 1.8x FY28. That is an interesting combination if they can deliver it but the real test will be keeping asset quality clean as newer markets become a bigger part of the loan book.
✨️Aptus Value Housing: Aptus has built strong economics in South India. NIM is close to 12%, collections are largely managed in house and management continues to talk about 20% plus growth. At around ₹250 levels, valuation is roughly 2.2x FY27 adjusted book and 1.9x FY28. Yes the margins are excellent but as competition increases in South India, defending them will be the real test.
One important thing I tend to track across the sector is Loan Against Property. LAP is becoming a bigger part of the product mix and in some cases can move towards 30% or more. It gives better yields, but the risk is not exactly the same as a normal home loan. If lenders start pushing LAP mainly to protect margins, I would look more carefully at what is actually happening.
For now, balance sheets still look comfortable. Debt to equity is around 3x for many players and gross Stage 3 assets remain below roughly 1.2%. Funding costs have also become more stable, which should help margins.
The sector looks attractive because mortgage penetration is still low, the borrower base is large and these companies cater to customers banks often find harder to lend to.
Personally speaking 'Home First' looks strongest on quality and growth, 'India Shelter' on growth versus valuation.
Aavas I belive looks decent on valuation comfort Aadhar definitely is big on scale and Aptus has its hold on strong margins.
In the next few years who grows AUM fastest in one particular year is not where we need to focus. But it will be more all about who can keep doing it without loosening underwriting or losing too much on spreads !
Mr. Coxon is right.
The very people building this technology admit that it could threaten the future of humanity.
That is why I will soon be introducing legislation to ban superintelligence and pause AI development.
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
GOODBYE, ASTROLOGERS.
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Bringing young blood into government bodies and public administrative.
#Multibagger series
Here is our no. 22 multibagger
CMP-54
Target- 65, 75, 95..
SL- 28
Time frame- 11-12 Months
No 23 Multibagger will be posted tomorrow
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#WATCH | Munnar, Kerala: After a wait of nearly 12 years, the rare Neelakurinji flowers have bloomed in large numbers across the Korandakadu hills near Mattupetty in Munnar.
#Multibagger series
Here is our 20th multibagger
CMP-72
Target- 100, 155
SL- 30
Time frame- 22 Months
Next Multibagger will be posted tomorrow
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#Multibagger series
Here is our 19tn multibagger
CMP-31
Target- 35, 55, 50 , 60
SL- 20
Time frame- 8-12 Months
20th Multibagger will be posted tomorrow
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