Shraddhs

Integrating Geopolitics with Business Strategy.
De-mystifying Gulf politics
Bullish on Middle East-Africa corridor.
Ex-Banker, serial entrepreneur

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

I’m going to stick my neck out and say we’re now at the end of the war - or at least at the beginning of an actual, implementable deal that will reshape the Middle East.

If Donald Trump goes to meet Xi Jinping next week (unless it’s postponed), that’s the signal that larger goals are being delivered.

Because just a year ago, when Trump–Xi met, it looked like China had won - rare earths, manufacturing, green energy. But in a year, the US through its corporates and system control, has taken the nerve center of global energy choke points. It’s shown it’s the only stable LNG and oil supplier; everything else, if geographically concentrated, can be disrupted in conflict.

Makes two contenders equally placed in leverage, which is much more conducive to an actual deal.

Now layer the macro: once oil and commodity prices stabilize, that opens the window for rate cuts. And behold….Fed has a new chief replacing ‘higher rates for longer’ Powell.
But for that, the war has to wind down first.

At the same time, the global energy map has already shifted. Saudi Aramco (Motiva, potential Venezuela, MidOcean), Mubadala Energy (Thailand, Indonesia), QatarEnergy (Golden Pass and beyond), XRG (Rio Grande) - the Gulf is hedging across the Western Hemisphere and globally.

On the ground, proxies and the IRGC were the key risk and they’re being contained: Hezbollah is degraded, Houthis haven’t meaningfully intervened (deal with Saudis seems to have held), Hamas has honoured the ceasefire. Lebanon still needs closure. IRGC seems more moderated:)

In Israel, pressure is building on Benjamin Netanyahu from Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Even globally, alignments are shifting - look at Viktor Orbán ousting, the last major supporter of Netanyahu.

Add to this a gradual shift from permanent US bases to a lighter, flexible footprint and economies like Syria reopening, with players like Emaar stepping in.

Very possible something concrete materializes soon - whether it will be preceded by a closing violent act.. we will have to see.

Smaller theatres may continue, but the larger reset seems to be in motion. Consequences for the world order are however just beginning.

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

I think Trump, Netanyahu & Iran all agreed to the ceasefire when UAE retaliated within Iranian territory & Saudis took on Iran supported Iraqi militias. Everyone understood then that all hell can break loose if Gulf starts heavy retaliation.

And despite the rhetoric - a wider regional escalation is everyone’s Red line.

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

I wonder if after all this is over - handles that spread fake news again & again, called for increased escalation and applauded when countries’ hit each other’s civilian targets- will be held to task.
It is one thing to have ideological issues with a country, quite another to call for large scale murder & mayhem.

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

Does it also mean that after the leverage China has on US’s bond markets because of the treasuries they hold,

They can also impact the US stock market by simple revealing better, lower cost, lower compute and less energy guzzling companies in AI and potentially robotics?

😳😕

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

To all the market experts out there...please help me understand

Anthropic is reportedly chasing a near-$1 trillion valuation (per S-1 filing data). OpenAI isn't far behind.
DeepSeek, despite shaking up the AI world this year, is reportedly valued at just $20–45 billion.
So what exactly are investors seeing in US AI companies that they don't see in Chinese ones?
Is it trust? Access to capital? Better business models? Concerns about transparency? Or are markets simply betting that US firms will capture most of the profits?
Because if DeepSeek's claims about achieving similar results with far less compute (in open source) are even partly true, then one of two things is a fact:
Either Chinese AI companies are massively undervalued, OR
The market is massively overestimating how much infrastructure and capital are actually needed to win the AI race.

Which one is it....?

#SpaceX #OpenAI #Anthropic #Deepseek

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

@DailyMail Somebody please tell Daily Mail that Hitler’s ‘noble truth’ concept does not work anymore. That if you repeat an untruth, half truth or manipulation many times, people will start believing it.

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

Is there any country in the world that no one hates? The caveat is that it should be prominent in global affairs. Looking at the social media vitriolic discourse, I can’t think of any. 😕🤔

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

@iranidaturan And then there are effects on higher mortgage rates which is real terms are over 7 percent. For an already over leveraged US consumer - that is the end of house and consumer products buying capacity.

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

The biggest obstacle to war in Iran is US's bond and equity markets and massive debt...not immediate energy needs:

War pushes oil higher → Oil above $110–115 reignites inflation across the global economy.
Higher inflation pushes Treasury yields higher → The US is already refinancing trillions in debt; yields above 5% sharply increase borrowing costs.
Many oil-importing countries facing large deficits are selling their Treasuries →further creating pressure on the Fed to intervene through renewed liquidity measures or asset purchases (money they just don't have)
Plus, higher bond yields drain liquidity from stocks → Capital flows into bonds, pressuring equities and making major IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic harder to absorb.
At some point, markets will force de-escalation → The combination of expensive oil, expensive debt, and tighter liquidity is something that President Trump cannot manage. That's why he TACOs every 5 days.

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

@AndreasSteno But hey maybe IRGC & Trump have other plans 🤣🤦🏻‍♀️

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

The Houthis are the smartest & most independent of Iran’s proxy. They are gunning for leadership positions in the new Yemeni transitional govt. I personally think the Saudi-UAE conflagration in Yemen was partly about promising post war spoils to Houthis.

So long story short - I don’t think Houthis will shut the Barb el Mandeb, unless it is the final act to bring everyone to a final deal. And then too with Saudi blessing.

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

There has to be a three-sided victory narrative for this war to formally end:
- Iran needs to look like it has humbled the US - Check
- The US needs to claim victory for getting Iran to the table and sorting out Iranian nuclear and proxy issues once and for all - In progress
- Israel needs to at least get Hezbollah out. Or maybe not - since Netanyahu will anyway be out in October 2026.
Another round of escalation to de-escalate, or is there room within negotiations? And before you jump on my throat, it doesn't matter what is true or not - only the perception matters.

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

@omgsidewalks Universal High Income....maybe

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

The world will be a much more analytical and non-judgmental place if people actually visit the Gulf countries before forming stereotypes based on media and some Middle Eastern diaspora (that still deploy the 1970s lens) portrayals. And worse, acting on them as if they are the gospel truth.

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

And lo and behold, you have the new government of a first-time politician, but a businessman plenty of times, Ali Al Zaidi, in Iraq, after the US President Trump intervened forcefully against the selection of the veteran Nouri-al-Maliki. I am sure if we dig deeper - there is some Gulf link somewhere.

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

The Syrian President Envoy, in addition to Tom Barrack's Turkey portfolio, makes sense. Syria is arguably the first prototype of the new Middle East: Turkish influence, KSA's support, Gulf capital, American and Chinese commercial interests - all converging around reconstruction, trade routes, real estate and minerals rather than ideology.

The more interesting addition is Iraq - will Iraq become the second case study with dynamics driven less by ideological fault lines and more by economic logic, regional connectivity and pragmatic statecraft? The challenges are daunting....

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

@Alinavisooo I think everyone should convert to vegetarianism to avoid conflicts in food 😂🤪🤣

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

@MENAUnleashed I am curious - Just DP World has 80 ports and container terminals they control around the world. More if you add Abu Dhabi Ports. Even Jabel Ali is now operational, so is Fujeriah and Khorfakkan. So which ports are you talking about?

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

Stock markets up while your economy is in doldrums has become a natural phenomena of our financial system. Look at the US (trillions of debt), Israel (a big privatisation drive of distressed assets), South Korea (driven by a couple of chip stocks while the real economy shrinks).

I don’t know follow the Iranian stock market - is the stock market really reflecting economic strength or is it about trading and capital controls, data manipulation or an anticipated investments awaiting a normalisation deal.

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

@ShaykhSulaiman We have a saying in India - golmal hain bhai, Sab golmal hain roughly translating into…
It’s all a scam….

[Shraddhs @shraddhs]

@ShaykhSulaiman Were they complaining to the US about UAE’s role in striking Iran while they were covertly striking Iran as well as per Reuters and many others? 🤔

https://t.co/GYEKgV1j9C