danh

[Magic hat 🎩 @themagic_tophat]

⚖️ 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗽𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘀𝗵𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲

Here are the arguments that I expect the PL legal team will make for why the Independent Commission must apply the most severe punishments possible.

1) 𝙋𝙤𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙨 𝙙𝙚𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙧𝙚𝙡𝙚𝙜𝙖𝙩𝙚

The typical points deduction baseline for a regular PSR breach is 6 points for the breach and a further point for every £5m over the limit. These are then varied for mitigating and aggravating circumstances.

By my calculations, Man City breached PSR by at least £120-140m each year over 2015/16-2017/18. In aggregate, that would mean a baseline of 96 points deducted. But this was not a regular PSR breach either. It was historic, hidden, the platform for all success and future growth and what’s more, they then sought to evade / fight justice for years.

So the points deduction should probably be larger than 96. The simple reality is they must go down.
Anything less would be egregious (when viewed alongside precedent) and subject to not only appeal, but almost certainly Section X arbitration and judidical review on the basis it was a perverse outcome.

2) 𝙃𝙪𝙜𝙚 𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙞𝙢𝙥𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨, 𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙈𝙖𝙣 𝘾𝙞𝙩𝙮’𝙨 𝙛𝙪𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 𝙨𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜

Given precedent of other fines applied by Commissions, the scale of the offences, and the length of time taken from discovery to sanction (mostly due to Man City’s non-cooperation), Man City can expect the largest ever fine in football history.

I will do a more detailed thread on this soon, but I suspect a fine of up to £100m (justified on the basis of damage to the PL brand) and compensation claims to the 4 clubs of more than £1bn in total.

Normally, fines and compensation claims are not counted when assessing FFP / PSR because to include them would be considered “double punishment”. However, excluding them might be considered unfair in this specific case.

Man City smuggled in more than £800m of equity, disguised as sponsor income. In today’s prices, that would be worth billions. They have built an empire on the cheating and still benefit from it to this day. Their valuable squad (which they can sell to raise funds) exists because of it. It’s why their “net spend” isn’t that high. What’s more, valuable long-term commercial deals only exist because of it too.

The sanctions must also “make good” the damage that Man City cause but they must also mitigate for any undue sporting advantage they have gained. As such, that massive spending power that they gained through cheating must be restricted to compensate. Including the fines or compensation would not achieve this In the PL now that the rules are SCR-based rather than PSR-based. As such, I suspect the Panel will be asked to achieve this by applying a mark-down to their SCR allowance. Uefa may be asked to include the fines and comp claims in any assessment of their Football Earnings (I doubt they’ll comply).

3) 𝙏𝙞𝙩𝙡𝙚 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙥𝙥𝙞𝙣𝙜

Every single major player acquisition from the summer of 2011 onwards can be tied to the illicit funds. Directly or indirectly. These players were absolutely critical to their ill-gotten success. It is impossible to argue that they would have won their titles without them. As such, there is a strong argument for why titles should be stripped. It is also a needed outcome for the purposes of deterrent against future cheating by other parties.

And even through they only breaached PSR from 2015/16 onwards (they breached Uefa FFP two years rules earlier), they started getting the benefit of their scheme much earlier than that. Had they not devised it, with the intention to defraud the league, then they likely would not have spent nearly as much as they did on players in Summer 2011 onwards.

So there is an argument that everything they won from 2011/12 onwards is tainted (i.e., all of it). That is the argument I would make. All of it must be stripped.

The counter-argument is that only titles won from the first PSR breach (in 2015/16) should be stripped by suggesting that sporting advantage did not apply until that year. I feel this argument is weaker but this is subjective. The Panel could go either way.

4) 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙘𝙚𝙙 𝙨𝙖𝙡𝙚 𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙪𝙡𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣

The cheating was on a massive scale. But what’s worse is how it was undertaken. It required a hidden criminal conspiracy on an enormous scale. What’s even worse is when it was discovered, the owner and club execs did everything they could to deny justice. They refused to comply with the investigation, dragging it out for years. They supplied false documentation and committed perjury at CAS, as well as having eminent business leaders do the same. They demonstrated a total disregard for the rules and the league’s integrity. They demonstrated a clear belief that they are above any and all rules.

The rule breaches were only discoverable due to an email hack that will likely never be possible again (all malign actors will be more careful now). And they have so much power to falsify records, silence whilstblowers and force individuals to lie. They are an existential threat to the league.

You simply cannot allow individuals like that to remain in a competition if you want it to maintain integrity. They pose too great a threat.

The Panel cannot expel the club directly but it can recommend that the clubs vote to do so. But I suspect no-one will want to destroy the club. That is unfair to many employees and fans. They would rather just excise the ownership instead. As such, the Panel should recommend that the club be expelled if it is not sold to completely unassociated parties within a year, with a sale likely undertaken on a competitive basis and managed by an independent third party (similar to Chelsea’s).

[Magic hat 🎩 @themagic_tophat]

For those thinking Man City will get a lenient punishment like Chelsea did, that simply won’t be the case.

The PL convinced an IC Panel that Chelsea (a) did not gain any Sporting Advantage, (b) they were no longer owned/run by the perpetrators, and (c) they were very compliant (even self-reporting).

Man City’s case is the opposite of those 3 factors.

1) They gained a monstrous sporting advantage. Hundreds upon hundreds of millions over PSR limits.

2) They are still owned / run by the people that did it.

3) They have gone to extreme lengths to avoid justice. They hid it all (only an email hack caught them - the rules could not).
They refused to comply with the investigation.
They committed perjury at CAS.

I’ll do a fuller post later tonight but the reality is the punishments will be as serious as they come.

My pinned post says it all.

[Max Scott @maxbscott]

A seismic day for English football.

This ruling is incomparable to Everton, Forest and even Chelsea (who largely self-reported their breaches).

Manchester City appear to be guilty of what is essentially corperate fraud on a mammoth scale, cheating the system by inflating commercial revenue/sponsorship payments, allowing them to become the club they are today.

Its calls into question the integrity of one of the most significant and dominant Premier League champions we’ve ever seen.

[T G J @thatguysjokes]

Man City’s lawyer winning 1 out of the 115 charges

[danh @shxxdanh]

@htomufc hi bro, just want to say that I love ur videos and the only thing missed is an English subtitle for some foreigners like me. it would be much better.

[AI @nonewthing]

These players have frames & running power Saka is missing.

Saka is currently missing

—Frame power
—Contact power
—Running power

He has to specialize in a contact-less free role & use his intelligence to combine & arrive in finishing situations.

Just think Florian Wirtz.

[Jhay_ @Jhay__01]

Football fans,

Please tell me the difference between a 'false 9' and a 'second striker'
If you can back it up with examples, it'd be nice.

[AM’ @AM10FCB]

I was looking at the underlying numbers from United vs Fulham and it represents a consistent pattern that’s been showing in most of their games this season. High volume of shots taken, which indicates good progression between the thirds but very low xG and hence shot quality.

1/

[Spencer Mossman @fc_mossman]

I find the two talking points of:

- Manchester United needs to do more running, they're not robust enough to compete at the top of the league
- Florian Wirtz is a flop, numerically he is one of the hardest working players in the league but he lacks output

to be contradictory.

[danh @shxxdanh]

@Vrdfr_ Well I guess Godts isn't even as good as Bahoya, who is the one that I want for big clubs

[Michael Cox @Zonal_Marking]

Manchester United are rather immobile...but it's also refreshing to see a side not hooked on relentless man-marking in midfield. This is how football looked for a long time. It was good! It means you can play technical midfielders instead of runners! ⬇️
https://t.co/eddElVzK6h

[norf$ide flacko @kodeine_papi]

real madrid & utd have a similar problem: no true focal point.

but the reason they suffer from it, and what that absence does to their attacks, is completely different.

it comes down to one thing people often overlook: profile interaction.

🧵

[SilvaOB. @Silvakn0ws]

in-possession, Carrick improved our capacity to build-up and progress through the thirds, but we have, since his start, suffered an inability to create & score against settled defenses.

and he has not shown understanding of this flaw, talk less of improving it.

[norf$ide flacko @kodeine_papi]

carrick’s utd don’t defend the way they did when he first took over.

they’ve gone from compact mid-block + selective pressing to a much more aggressive high press + counterpress.

same transition DNA. much higher risk.

here’s what changed 🧵

[The Game Changer English @TGC_english]

Brighton's man-oriented press against Arsenal.

[Adroit Cadet @Adroit_Cadet]

People are overreacting. @Carras16 may have been sold horrendously short in the transfer market, and while his playing model may not be perfect, his United team can still be, imo, very fun this season

Give them some time

A thread:

[Lionel Lingard 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 @Lionel_Lingard]

Andrey Santos and Youri Tielemans' pairing will never work against a high-intensity team. Against a low-intensity team, it can work.

Why?

Because everyone Tielemans has paired with this season, from Mainoo to Andrey Santos, has always had to carry him.

He doesn't have legs, he's too slow. He can't tackle. He gets dribbled past easily. Can't run. Can't recover balls. Can't defend.

When he's on the field with Mainoo, Mainoo does all the work.

When he's on the field with Santos does Santos does all the work.

This is why our midfield has been getting exposed every time.

We saw how the Mason Mount and Andrey Santos pairing worked during the pre-season, it's because they complemented each other. Mount covered ground for Santos. Santos covered ground for Mount and the result was a balanced midfield.

We saw how the Mainoo and Mount pairing worked against Brighton last season.

Michael Carrick has tried different pairings with Mainoo except Andrey Santos.

He keeps running away from it when it is the pairing that will bring stability to our midfield until Carlos Baleba is back.

Andrey Santos is strong, agile, technical, can win tackles, can pass the ball, can recover the ball, and can win possession.

Kobbie Mainoo is strong, creative, agile, and press-resistant. technical, can win tackles, win possession, anchor games, and is a great ball carrier.

These two players are young and energetic and they will complement each other so well.

Why Michael Carrick has refused to give both of them a run of games together is what I will never understand.

[⭐️⭐️ @CompsJeune]

Its a joke part 2 😭😭

[' @ftblnatt]

This ain't downing tools it's reflection of neglected conditioning of players since Barreira's departure, stark drop in intensity.
Late to recover 2nd balls, late to arrive in box, limited selfless off ball movements which makes play stale & proximity without movements is futile.

[danh @shxxdanh]

@Vrdfr_ Vic what’s ur thought on Yoro right now and what’s type of LB u think is suitable for Yanited? Tks a lot!