Opened $CMCL yesterday.
Caledonia Mining — profitable gold producer, dividend payer, ~10x earnings. Gold is ripping. Nobody's talking about this one.
Why cheap? Zimbabwe country risk + Q1 production miss. That's the dislocation. Country risk is real — but it's already in the price.
T1: $30 → T2: $38 → T3: $48–52 (only if Bilboes financing clears)
This is the most asymmetric setup in the portfolio right now. Watching Bilboes closely.
Opened $TASK yesterday.
Market has priced in full AI disruption.
Fundamentals haven't confirmed it.
7–8x FCF, 100% analyst buy ratings, Blackstone sniffed a take-private once.
Stop: $5.00 | Earnings May 11 — lots of room upward.
Japan literally made stock investing tax-free for its citizens (NISA).
0% capital gains.
0% dividend tax.
Simple. Permanent. Accessible.
Meanwhile, the U.S. taxes gains, restricts access, and buries investors in rules.
One country is engineering a permanent equity bid.
The other is coasting.
Why have I never heard of this until now?
$NWL is a classic hated value name with asymmetric upside. At ~0.2–0.3x sales, ~6x EV/EBITDA, and ~5–6x P/FCF, the market is pricing Newell like a melting ice cube despite a portfolio of durable brands (Sharpie, Rubbermaid, Yankee Candle).
Management is deep into a multi-year turnaround: headcount reductions, SKU rationalization, cost cuts targeting $110–130M annually, and improving margin discipline. Operating cash flow is guided positive and stabilizing.
Leverage is the bear case, but they’ve begun reducing net debt and improving interest coverage. If the business normalizes and re-rates even to 1x sales or a low-teens earnings multiple, the upside becomes a realistic 5x+ from a $3–4 base.
High risk, but this is where deep value lives: ugly chart, real brands, real cash flow, and a turnaround the market has already priced for dead.