we’ve been hard at work shaping what we think is the future of live interactive sports. super excited to share what y’all will see in @turfsports_ season 1 🏈.
a few prediction markets social apps on my radar right now and all different shapes, all worth a try
the pattern they share: they're financial products where the social graph is the core primitive
> @sharexyz is the cleanest example where polymarket trades become a feed. you follow wallets the same way you follow accounts + copy-trading with profit-sharing on top (really impressive ui/ux + branding)
> @TradeOnsight is a polymarket client built for traders. visible positions, mutuals' calls in your feed, payouts tied to being right
> @hivy_alpha prediction markets become group activity. shared positions, collective alpha, rewards for participation not just pnl. closer to a discord trade channel than a market interface.
> @useperminal (underrated) does it on @HyperliquidX. social prediction feed, one-tap copy, you get paid every time someone copies your call or a referral trades.
+apple pay in, crypto out
> @turfsports_ is using a very interesting approach. they're partnering with polymarket to turn fan takes into priced positions, and they shipped sdk markets on base: a parimutuel toolkit where any community can spin up markets on anything, resolved by AI oracles that scrape ESPN, sleeper, X, podcast transcripts, whatever.
every group chat becomes a potential market.
some more thoughts on my side:
in theory, the best distribution layer for this right now seems to be @base (for onchain). it's the only ecosystem treating consumer as the actual thesis
~550k daily active addresses and the part that matters most for consumer apps: 9.3m monthly active coinbase trading users sitting one tap away
we're getting there
hot take: polymarket and kalshi are impressive but they are not fun
they have the liquidity, the backing, and the infrastructure but nobody opens them for fun on a tuesday night
the emerging prediction markets that figure out how to make the experience genuinely addictive are going to catch velocity faster than most expect. not because of better infra but because people actually want to open them
the gap is wider than you think it is
5 things @farzatv does differently
> never checks email (his agent does it)
> takes analog notes at the gym, turns them into apps
> uses screenshots and songs as inspiration
> built a personal wikipedia of his own life
> never scrolls X, uses @grok instead
I'm building wits - a personal assistant for capturing my brain dumps and sorting them into something that makes sense.
Here's my favorite interaction in the app so far 😃