RogerRabbit

I wanna be the guy that goes around and helps humans learn how to effectively use their new Robot slaves.
Is that a thing? I think it will be a thing.

[Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter]

The US just crossed a line it has never crossed in peacetime.

Federal interest costs hit a record $1 trillion. Debt held by the public is heading past 115% of GDP, set to break the 1946 wartime record by 2030, and net interest eats a record share of GDP. Higher debt plus higher rates is a snowball: interest forces more borrowing, which lifts rates, which lifts interest.

There is one politically easy exit, and it runs through the printing press. That is the real tail risk for the dollar.

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Anthropic offers Blackstone more than 10% yield in exchange for a $60 billion chip debt package

[Christopher David @Tazerface16]

The biggest IPO in history has a junk credit rating.

[Peter Zeihan @PeterZeihan]

The release of my first fiction novel, Acceptable Range, is fast approaching. Pre-order today and receive one free month of Patreon access!

Order here ➡️ https://t.co/v9rAzVTlln

[RogerRabbit @signalintelguy]

@JUST_KAWS As a %, compared to prior quarters, that rate of growth in revs has contuied to climb. Until this quarter, and worse, their guidance shows even less of a rate. Plus guidance show margin shrinking too. Margin drop = end of all prior memory cycles. $mu dumps 2morro.

[RogerRabbit @signalintelguy]

@zerohedge Not really.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

GOOLSBEE: RESTORING PRICE STABILITY ’WON’T BE PAINLESS’

[Jukan @jukan05]

MICRON TO DOUBLE HBM PRODUCTION CAPACITY, NARROWING GAP WITH SAMSUNG AND SK HYNIX

U.S. memory maker Micron plans to double its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production capacity from last year. Through aggressive capital spending by year-end, the company aims to strengthen its supply capabilities for 12-high HBM4, the latest generation of HBM. The move is intended to increase its market share by expanding its HBM capacity, which currently trails that of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

According to industry sources on September 3, Micron plans to add up to 60,000 wafers per month of HBM production capacity by the end of this year. The net addition would exceed the company’s HBM production level of roughly 40,000–50,000 wafers per month last year.

“Micron is making substantial investments in equipment to rapidly ramp up its HBM4 production capacity,” said an industry source familiar with the matter. “By the end of this year, it will have secured HBM production capacity of approximately 100,000 wafers per month.”

To achieve this expansion, Micron is increasing purchase orders (POs) with multiple HBM equipment suppliers. Equipment deliveries are understood to be ongoing at its HBM manufacturing sites in Taiwan and Singapore.

The share of 12-high HBM4 in Micron’s production mix is expected to rise significantly. Currently, 12-high HBM3E accounts for most of its HBM output. As recently as early this year, 12-high HBM4 represented only 20–30% of the total, but that share is reportedly set to reach as much as 50% by year-end.

Twelve-high HBM4 will be used in Vera Rubin, the latest AI accelerator from NVIDIA, the world’s largest AI chip company. Micron began mass production of its 12-high HBM4 products in the second quarter of this year.

During Micron’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings announcement in June, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said, “We are ramping up 12-high HBM4 production at roughly twice the pace of 12-high HBM3E,” adding that “cumulative revenue from HBM4 shipments has exceeded $1 billion.”

Although Micron is one of the world’s three major HBM manufacturers, its production capacity falls short of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Industry estimates put each Korean company’s HBM capacity at approximately 150,000–200,000 wafers per month—three to four times Micron’s level. Unless Micron catches up with their production capacity, it will struggle to escape its position as a perennial third-place player.

If Micron meets its capacity target this year, it could roughly halve its production gap with Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

Micron’s HBM capacity expansion also underscores the strength of demand for AI memory. Supply continues to fall short of demand as AI chipmakers, led by NVIDIA, seek large volumes of HBM. In this environment, maximizing HBM earnings requires the ability to supply more products—in other words, sufficient production capacity.

Micron is investing in HBM manufacturing facilities around the world. In addition to its investments in the United States, the company carries out HBM packaging at its Tongluo fab in Taiwan and Woodlands fab in Singapore, and is preparing equipment investments in Hiroshima, Japan.

According to Counterpoint Research, SK hynix led the global HBM market with a 50% share in the second quarter of this year, followed by Samsung Electronics at 32% and Micron at 18%.

$MU

[Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter]

Every time we see an inverted yield curve paired with a flattening Fed funds rate, the U.S. economy is heading into a recession.

When the Fed starts cutting rates and the yield curve flips positive, we're on the brink of a recession and a major market crash.

This market currently has an 85% correlation to the summer of 2007.

This time is no different.

[Jukan @jukan05]

SAMSUNG MEMORY ALLOCATES ~70% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY THROUGH 2031 TO LTA COMMITMENTS

SAMSUNG DS CONSIDERS CONVERTING PYEONGTAEK S5 FOUNDRY LINE INTO MEMORY CAPACITY AS EARLY AS NEXT YEAR

SK HYNIX EXPLORES FURTHER CAPACITY EXPANSION IN YONGIN AND HONAM, AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL JV FAB WITH A JAPANESE PARTNER IN JAPAN

[Jukan @jukan05]

SemiAnalysis:

SK hynix and Micron have struggled to achieve the highest HBM4 speeds. In particular, SK hynix had to redesign its base die, delaying HBM4 shipments for NVIDIA’s Rubin platform.

Samsung currently has the best HBM4 technology.

Broadcom has traditionally relied heavily on Samsung for its HBM supply. Samsung’s underperformance in the HBM3E generation made this a disadvantage for Broadcom’s ASICs. However, now that Samsung has pulled ahead of its competitors with HBM4, the same sourcing relationship has become an advantage for Jalapeño.

[RogerRabbit @signalintelguy]

@Ross__Hendricks $nvda quarterly revs:
$30.0B - 15.34%
$35.1B - 16.78%
$39.3B - 12.11%
$44.1B - 12.03%
$46.7B - 6.08%
$57.0B - 21.96%
$68.1B - 19.51%
$81.6B - 19.80%
$96.1 - 17.7%
$108 - 12.3% - guide

Memory cost up 15% going forward

Reported today
Margin down 1%
Inv up 5%
Channel stuffing

[RogerRabbit @signalintelguy]

$nvda revenue growth won't be enough, and stock tanks to $190s this week.

Not enough supplies in the supply chain.

Q: What did the Janitor say, when he came out of the closet?

A: "SUPPLIES!!"

$AMD $INTL $SOXL

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

Update on Hormuz tanker vessel crossings (note: traffic is still in single digits)

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

The Fed Owns Over 50% Of All Bonds Maturing Between 10 And 15 Years From Now https://t.co/DoYzQsrnok

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

TRUMP SAYS THE SEC AND CFTC ARE WORKING TO CREATE A LEGAL PATH FOR HYPERLIQUID $PURR TO OPERATE IN THE U.S.

[RogerRabbit @signalintelguy]

@GasBuddyGuy ? But are they really? I guess sort of but certainly not 97%...

US Crude inputs to refineries, per EIA TODAY, are only 16.250 kpbd

Down from 17,000ish avg last week....

So.....

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

*UAE SAYS ALL TRADE, FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS WITH IRAN HALTED

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

India’s July Crude Oil Imports Jump Most in Over 4 Years

India’s crude oil imports in July rose 13.3% y/y, up the most since July 2022, to 21.4 million tons, according to provisional data published by the oil ministry’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell. (Bloomberg)

[RogerRabbit @signalintelguy]

Fact:
Since 1990 the S&P has dropped @ least 7% from August to October in every midterm year, except 2006.

$vix $uco $soxl $dxy $kospi $oott $wti $usoil $oil