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[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

Want to get better at fantasy football?

Signals is the intelligence layer for your fantasy league. The Signals engine reads 50+ data signals per player and turns them into rankings and then puts you in the driver's seat. Adjust your own player rankings to your liking and then every draft tool, trade verdict, and league value is tuned to your rankings and each league's exact scoring and rosters.

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And a built in Fantasy AI Assistant that knows your rankings, the market rankings, and your league to help you make data-driven decisions.

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Full tour in the thread 🧵

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

@BFlashyy 100% right on this, we think that thin receiver room concentrates targets and Achane is the back who can absorb them. That receiving role is why we're still ahead of market on Achane, even in a Miami offense nobody is excited about.

https://t.co/Eq6UWOWAUs

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

We're seeing the Achane fade everywhere right now. The argument is that Willis takes carries and targets, Miami will be bad, and the touchdowns dry up. We can even agree about the offense.

But we looked at every back on a bottom six scoring offense since 2021, and the ones who caught passes finished about eleven spots better than the ones who did not. Ashton Jeanty just did it on the worst offense in football, catching 55 balls on the way to RB13. That is the profile Achane already has.

So our model still has him RB7, ahead of consensus and four spots clear of where he goes on Underdog.

The case against Achane doesn't add up to us:

- On 8 rushing touchdowns last season, 5 of them were explosive runs from 20 yards or more.
- Only one came from inside the 5 yard line.
- Achane had 5 carries inside the five all year. Ollie Gordon had 6.
- Achane was the second most targeted player on the roster, and the leading target earner has left the building.

And the discount is already applied. We apply efficiency and touchdown regression to his line, and he lands at RB7 anyway. So you are mostly buying the version where things go wrong.

Then the upside comes free:

- Willis is better than expected and the Dolphins are not a bottom 4 offense.
- Achane absorbs a significant share of Waddle's 100 targets, which may not be replaced.
- The new coaching staff uses Achane at the goal line more than Gordon.

This is what the model tells us rather than a promise. But if you are fading him on the red zone math and receiving regression, it may be worth another look.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

We like this framing since it is more careful than most schedule content this week. But it's important to know that defense is highly variable year to year. 44% of bottom-5 fantasy defenses jump to the top half the next year, so even if a tiebreak leans on last season, and we think schedule earns its keep once defenses normalize mid season.

https://t.co/3BbZamuZZ8

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

There are a lot of strength of schedule posts going around right now, telling you which players to target and fade based on the defenses they will face. We get the appeal, so we checked it, and we think you should see what we found.

We pulled ten years of fantasy points allowed and asked one question: how often does a defense stay what it was?

• Top-5 fantasy defenses stayed top-5 the next season only 31% of the time
• Bottom-5 defenses stayed bottom-5 only 24% of the time
• 44% of bottom-5 defenses jumped all the way to the top half the next year
• Year over year, the rank correlation is just +0.24

Last season is a good example. The Jets went from the 3rd toughest fantasy matchup in 2024 all the way down to 30th in 2025. Over those same two years the Vikings climbed from 17th to 1st, and Carolina went from dead last to 12th. Side note, but this is why you should never pay up for a "top" defense in D/ST required formats.

Some of it you can feel good about. Houston will probably be tough again, Dallas probably will not be. But the extremes are where preseason schedule takes get made, and the extremes are exactly where they fall apart.

We tested this on our own model instead of assuming it, and when we applied a full season schedule multiplier to our preseason projections, our positional rank accuracy got worse at all four positions.

Here is the part we are excited about. Once the season starts, defense stops being a guess. By around week 5 this year's defensive data tells you more than last year's did, and it becomes genuinely predictive at three of your four primary offensive positions. So we automatically wire that into our rest of season projections for you.

So enjoy the schedule content, we do too. But just be careful about drafting around it. Feel confident in taking the better player and let the season tell you who the defenses really are when matchups start being worth your time later in the season.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

Maybe it’s an overreaction but I don’t think you can just ignore what the coaches are saying either. I think that this is a combination of both what we’re seeing in preseason action plus Kubiak’s comments. They’re in the building and see these guys together every day, so unless they’re just lying, I think there’s reason to believe Washington will have a legitimate workload which was our original point.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

We don’t want to make a big judgement on Jeanty last year, he had a historically bad yards before contact which is a product of his offensive line. We still think Jeanty will be good once he’s healthy, but no doubt Washington can carve out a role as the freak athlete which could limit Jeanty’s upside.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

@pomodoro414 @SleeperNFL @TheCakFF @ryanmcfadden_ @SleeperRaiders @RaidersLead I don’t think anyone would argue he would be taking over the backfield. But Washington carving out a role as 1-2 punch as Kubiak said in his quote could be enough to limit Jeanty’s ceiling in the cohort of RBs he currently goes around in drafts.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

@LaBarDallas @SleeperNFL @TheCakFF @ryanmcfadden_ @SleeperRaiders @RaidersLead I don’t think Charbonnet has ever looked as explosive as a runner as Washington has this preseason. Very different profiles but I’m not sure how you could watch Washington and say that he doesn’t merit a role in the offense.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

@SMcCormick_FF @RyanJ_Heath 100% - the explosive runs can’t be ignored. Which does also give us promise for Jeanty can also deliver similar explosives. But if he’s not the bellcow like the other RBs in his range, his ceiling could be capped.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

Don’t worry, we would absolutely never say that Mike Washington is better than Ashton Jeanty. But it’s very possible that if Washington is good enough to provide a 1-2 punch like Kubiak himself says, then that could be enough to limit Jeanty’s fantasy upside. Just like Walker/Charbonnet in Seattle.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

Perhaps, but Mike Washington has proven that he’s legit NFL RB that can generate explosives which is the original intent of the quote. That could merit a non inconsequential workload for him that could cap Jeanty’s upside.

Also I’m not sure we have enough reliable intel on Kubiak’s historical coach speak to know how true or false this could be, @CoachspeakIndex would have to weigh in on that.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

100% - this is why if we can’t explain via data or at least some external factors why we’re high/low on a guy, the post never goes out. In our opinion, there’s a lot of accounts that just follow the wind from Underdog ADP and betting odds, which is just piggybacking from others doing the homework.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

@RN4L9416 @SleeperNFL @TheCakFF @ryanmcfadden_ @SleeperRaiders @RaidersLead And he did so by capping the touches of his best RB in the regular season while giving not insignificant volume to an inferior backup. All so that his best RB could be fresh for a playoff run. The fantasy streets cried while the Seahawks lifted a trophy.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

@Gingeball @SleeperNFL @TheCakFF @ryanmcfadden_ @SleeperRaiders @RaidersLead We’re just talking about his fantasy upside here. If Mike Washington ever eats into Jeanty’s regular season role at the expense of Jeanty leading the Raiders to the Super Bowl, Kubiak will get a statue while the fantasy streets will moan, just like what happened in Seattle.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

@LaBarDallas @SleeperNFL @TheCakFF @ryanmcfadden_ @SleeperRaiders @RaidersLead No doubt Charbonnet/Walker had different strengths. But I would also argue that Mike Washington has looked legitimately explosive and better than Charbonnet ever did too. He may just demand carries because of his explosive runs, not because Jeanty did anything wrong.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

@ryanmcfadden_ From the coach that brought you Zach Charbonnet limiting Kenneth Walker. This might not be just coach speak. Proceed with caution on Jeanty.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

@rotoworld_fb From the coach that brought you Zach Charbonnet limiting Kenneth Walker. This might not be just coach speak. Proceed with caution on Jeanty.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

@UnderdogNFL @samwarren83 From the coach that brought you Zach Charbonnet limiting Kenneth Walker. This might not be just coach speak. Proceed with caution on Jeanty.

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

From the coach that brought you Zach Charbonnet limiting Kenneth Walker. This might not be just coach speak. Proceed with caution on Jeanty.

[SleeperNFL @SleeperNFL]

Raiders rookie RB Mike Washington has reportedly "changed the staff's perspective of the RB room," per @ryanmcfadden_

HC Klint Kubiak previously talked about using Ashton Jeanty as a bell cow, but it now looks like the backfield could become more of a "1-2 punch."

[Signals Fantasy @SignalsFantasy]

@draftrumble @SleeperNFL