Viktors Silovs

Web developer building custom CMS, automation and AI-ready websites. Sharing practical insights on digital growth and trading psychology.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

The BOJ doesn’t hold US equities and doesn’t run FX intervention, that’s the MoF, and their reserves are mostly Treasuries not stocks. $620B would be roughly half of Japan’s entire reserve stack liquidated in one go. GPIF rebalancing is probably the thing getting garbled here, and that’s a scheduled portfolio decision, not an emergency measure.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

A former chair has no policy authority, so whatever he says at 8:30 moves nothing except positioning by people who didn’t read the word “former.” Also 8:30 ET is the standard data release slot, not some emergency window. Tomorrow is Monday, no scheduled prints, so this is either a speech or it doesn’t exist.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

Capex isn’t productivity, it’s just spending until the depreciation schedule catches up, and a lot of that datacenter build is being funded with debt now rather than free cash flow. Growth outrunning the debt clock needs the output to show up in the numbers, and so far the measurable gains sit in a handful of income statements, not in aggregate. Also the $206B DOGE figure was never reconciled to actual outlays. Worth being careful using it as the benchmark for what cuts can’t do.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

Pattern only holds if you leave out 2008 and 2020, which happen to be the two worst drawdowns in the sample. Also 2018’s -19% bottomed on Christmas Eve and 2022’s low was October, so “August” is doing a lot of retrofitting. Even years have midterms and thin summer liquidity, that’s the actual mechanism, and it doesn’t need a four-year clock.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

Equities drove 57% of the gain and equity ownership is concentrated in the top decile basically everywhere, so this number says very little about the median household. Aggregate wealth up 7.3% while most people’s balance sheet is a mortgage and a car. The last line is right though, just for a narrower group than the headline implies.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

Six of those nine fired between Mar 2004 and Aug 2006, so overlapping windows counting as separate samples. The bigger issue is the setup can only trigger when SPY is within 3% of highs, which structurally rules out 2000-02 and 2008, so you've filtered for bull markets and then discovered bull markets go up. 100% win rate on a sample that can't include a bear market isn't telling you much.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

A refund means they already paid that $2.2B in, so it's their own money coming back. Every importer of record gets the same treatment, Apple's line item just looks obscene because their import volume is obscene. For it to be a scam you'd need someone collecting who never paid in the first place.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

Softs and ags moving together like that is rarely all supply, it usually means the dollar side of the trade is doing work too. Rice at +45% and wheat at +25% takes about six to nine months to show up in CPI, which is well after the Fed has decided what it thinks about inflation. Cotton and wool in the same list is the part I'd watch, that's not weather, that's freight and input costs.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

The 60k waitlist was for an influencer's audience, which is a distribution business wearing a camp costume. Strip the audience out and you own seasonal real estate with a 12-week revenue window, weather risk, and liability insurance on a ropes course. Camp No Counselors works because the brand travels and they rent the sites. Buying the property is the version that breaks.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

That bar at 99 is one of the cleanest natural experiments you'll see in policy data, near-zero filings from 100 to 110 says it all. Same thing shows up anywhere a rule has a hard threshold, people build to just under it. Worth noting the chart doesn't tell you whether total units fell or just got repackaged into more 99-unit buildings, but the shape of the incentive is not in question.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

Intervention that fights your own fiscal policy just hands better entries to the people re-shorting yen. Selling reserves to defend a currency is the hard side, you run out of ammo, whereas 2011 they could print yen forever. Watching JGB long end more than USDJPY here, that's where the actual stress shows up first, and gold catches a bid every time that spills into the London session.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

The margin story holds until the first support call. A $400 base Mac mini running a local model is fine for a demo, but a coffee shop owner who can't get an answer out of it on a Saturday is calling you, not reading Ollama docs, and that $125 retainer buys them unlimited patience with your phone. Ten clients in and you're a field tech with no leverage unless the whole thing is a fixed image you can ship and remote in on. The install isn't the business, the standardization is.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

The 78% was the Nasdaq, not "markets," and the S&P took about half that. Berkshire's cash pile is a function of size, not a market call, he sat on a mountain of it through 2005-2006 and again through most of 2013 while the index ran. Also those quotes don't trace to anything he actually said. Pretty sure that's the whole post.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

Survivorship bias with the NVDA comparison. For every one that came back from -90% there's a dozen that just kept going, and you only hear about the one. Also "$110-115 survives every unlock wave" and "I'm still waiting for perfect R:R" can't both be true, price is at 111 right now. Post the entry or don't, but the follow-for-notifications ask is doing more work than the thesis.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

@USronaldcarter The returns per golden cross go 139, 2200, 1190, 95, which is a decaying series, and you've drawn that as a reason to expect the biggest run ever. Weekly MA crosses are lagging by construction, so the cross prints after the move you wanted to catch. "Starting Monday" is the tell.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

Five samples across a log chart where the returns range from 293% to 9,302% isn't a signal, that's a spread wide enough to mean nothing. Supply-in-profit dipping to 50% happens near every cycle low, so you're basically saying "BTC went up after it went down." Show the times it flashed and price kept bleeding for eight more months.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

A month of lower highs with no bounce holding more than a session or two reads like supply, not sentiment. Unlocks getting front-run doesn't stop until the float is priced, and that usually overshoots. Earnings won't fix a supply problem, so I'd rather buy the first higher low after the print than guess at $100.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

13F data is 45 days stale by the time it prints, so "since Burry opened long" is a guess at an entry that could be anywhere in a quarter-long window. Also nobody posts the positions that went the other way. Copying a filing without knowing his size, his hedge, or whether he's already out is just a coin flip with extra steps.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

@ardizor Repo ops aren't liquidity injections in any meaningful sense, that's overnight plumbing that drains right back out the next morning. $8.6B is a rounding error against daily SOFR volume north of $2T. Label it QE and people position for something that isn't there.

[Viktors Silovs @silovs]

"Smart money is quietly preparing" is the part nobody can ever show. Also pairing a real chart with the Benner cycle wheel undercuts the argument, that thing has been retrofitted to every decade since 1875. Bull markets do top eventually. Just needs a level and a date, not a vibe.