So many of these F2 investors are whiny babies. There will be an announcement one day before the end of Trump's presidency that F2 is going public/uplist and the stock with then 5x overnight. Whether that happens today or in 2 years, it will happen. Stop crying about each day's price swings and non-news stories. $FNMA $FMCC
So putting the pieces together, @BillAckman raised ~$5 billion on his recent IPO. He says that, within weeks, he will have invested much of those proceeds into companies that he already owns. And he called $FNMA and $FMCC his best investment ideas for 2026. You do the math! Massive F2 purchases incoming! 🚀🚀🚀
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are stronger than ever before. In 2026, they will build on this strength to levels never seen before. They are safer, sounder, and more adept than ever!
Hate Israel all you want but one thing is absolutely, abundantly clear after the rescue of the American pilots and as this war has proceeded:
No other ally in the world today actively assists the US as Israel does. They are the truest ally in every sense of the word.
NATO won't even let the US fly through their airspace. Israel? They'll put their own pilots in the line of fire to rescue an American. That's allyship.
The math on Fannie and Freddie is so dislocated it looks like a pricing error.
Fannie printed $14.4 billion in net income last year. Freddie printed $10.7 billion. Combined market cap on the pink sheets right now: ~$12 billion. The market is pricing $25 billion in annual earnings at a 0.48x multiple. Find me another 0.48x earnings multiple anywhere in American finance. It doesn't exist.
The dilution fear is the reason the stock is cheap and the reason the stock is wrong. Treasury put in $187 billion. The GSEs have swept back over $300 billion since 2012. That's an 11.6% IRR. If Treasury exercises its 79.9% warrants at today's price, the government's stake is worth ~$9.6 billion. If it exercises post-relist at 10x earnings, that stake is worth $200 billion. The difference is $190 billion. Washington doesn't leave $190 billion on the table to spite penny stock holders.
Capital requirements look scary until you do the arithmetic. The ERCF says $334 billion. They have $179 billion. The FHFA can lower Tier 1 to 2.5% without Congress. New target: ~$190 billion. Gap: $11 billion. One IPO closes it. One year of retained earnings closes it twice.
G-fees are already at 65 bps. Pre-crisis they were 20. The GSEs have been charging privatized pricing inside a conservatorship for 14 years. Credit losses outside of 2008 average under 5 bps. The margin is so fat that mortgage rates don't move at all on release.
So what are you actually buying at $5? A royalty on the American mortgage system. 65 bps on $7.5 trillion in outstanding MBS. $48 billion in gross annual revenue. Under 5 bps in historical losses. The most predictable spread in finance, backstopped by a guarantee both parties have publicly committed to preserving.
JPMorgan trades at 13x and takes real credit risk. Utilities trade at 15x with half the visibility. These two trade at 0.48x collecting tolls on other people's risk.
The second those warrants convert and the NYSE listing goes live, every index fund and pension fund with a financial sector mandate has to buy. Two of the ten most profitable companies in America, sitting on the pink sheets, waiting for one signature.
To compliment the @BillAckman accurate description of the Net Worth Sweep of 100% of Fannie and Freddie profits, one must also look at how the Obama Treasury forced F2 to cook their books.
Then Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner continued the Hank Paulson large bailout plan that exacerbated the mortgage market crisis and extended credit losses beyond the sand States. Geithner hired both Blackrock and Blackstone to direct F2 to find as many write downs as they could to justify the $100B each bailout that protected F2 bondholders.
When F2 internal models were stressed they each could not come close to $100B in losses.
Paulson and Geithner wrongly compared street private label mortgage losses to the relatively safer book of GSE mortgages failing to recognize that GSEs had strong first loss cover in private mortgage insurance and in bank legal obligations to repurchase fraudulent and defectively underwritten mortgages.
Obama Treasury forced F2 to cook their books and zero out all PMI ($43B of trapped liquid claims paying ability) and all lender recourse (another $61B of liquid bank assets - $20B alone with BofA) that provided F2 legally obligated claims paying ability.
Treasury ignored that first loss liquidity forcing F2 to post large credit provisions in 2008-2010.
The policy was extend and pretend for the banks and PMIs but to force F2 into conservatorship.
Yet the PMI and recourse funds were being collected while bad loan repurchases mushroomed.
F2 also tightened the credit box and doubled GFees during this period. It was a total double standard to target F2 investors. In hindsight F2 never needed the bailouts for cash flow because the credit loss provisions and other valuation allowances were non-cash. The bailouts were optics done for mostly foreign bondholders. American homeowners and F2 shareholders were the victims of that failure.
Then with the high non cash credit losses F2 each wrote off $31B and and $21B of Deferred Tax Assets in 2008 respectively. In 2009-2011 another $29B Fannie and $8B Freddie DTA write downs for a total of $89B.
Combining the $104B non-cash credit losses with the $89B DTA write downs coincidentally equalled the amount of Treasury F2 bailout in Senior Preferred.
Yet in 2010 and 2011 F2 were collecting the PMI, lender recourse, the higher GFees and trends started to look good for home price recovery.
Treasury knew ahead of the NWS taking that F2 would be rolling in profits. Nonetheless F2 kept loan loss allowances high and gave no model value to the liquid PMI first loss claim receipts. They all knew ahead of 2012 that the DTAs and loan loss provisions would appear anomalous.
Facing obvious valuation allowance reversals, Treasury rushed to implement the 2012 NWS.
Smart folks inside witnessed the accounting and loan loss committee gimmickry - with some still working at F2.
Tucker Carlson is now saying there isn’t a single thriving city in the West and that the Islamic countries in the Middle East are better than the West.
He is basically a Muslim now. He’s also praising Sharia Law again.
He has lost his mind.
Trump has stated it explicitly. Bessent has stated it explicitly. Lutnick has stated it explicitly. Pulte has stated it explicitly. Ackman has stated it explicitly. We are fine. $FNMA $FMCC