Simon Mueller Stansbury

Trying to walk the fine line between the Cartesian and the Poetic life. Author of The Decision Maker's Playbook. Co-founder @thefuturesoc.

[Simon Mueller Stansbury @sim0nmueller]

I'm joining the ranks of many who found John Vervaeke's (@vervaeke_john) 50 hour lecture series "Awakening from the Meaning Crisis" to be truly transformative.

My most profound takeaways and mental models of that course (jargon trigger warning): 🧵 I / II

[Simon Mueller Stansbury @sim0nmueller]

Redistribution is key

[Alex Tabarrok @ATabarrok]

Imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 40% unemployment rate. Sounds catastrophic. Now imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 3-day working week. Sounds wonderful.

Yet to a first approximation these are the same thing. https://t.co/Dc8tdi6WtM

[Simon Mueller Stansbury @sim0nmueller]

This

[Benjamin Todd @ben_j_todd]

Many don't appreciate that several more years of AI progress is already baked in, as compute that *has already been purchased* comes online.

So *at a minimum* we should expect agents that can complete multiweek coding projects, with superhuman hacking and near frontier scientific & mathematical abilities, are significantly better at much real world knowledge work, pretty good at designing bioweapons etc.

While there could be a financial crash, I don't see a realistic scenario where AI isn't a huge deal.

In fact, deployment seems far behind what's already possible with the current tech, so even if progress stopped completely here, AI would be far more widespread two years from now.

[Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @Noahpinion]

The heads of the big AI labs continue to insist that their products are going to take all your jobs, and also pose various catastrophic risks

[etherret🐾 @witchof0x20]

every time i think about LessWrong's reaction system I smile. this is what peak communication looks like

[Ajeya Cotra @ajeya_cotra]

New post: on Jan 14, I predicted that SWE time horizon by EOY would be ~24 hours. Now I think it'll be >100 hours, and maybe unbounded. For the first time, I don't see solid evidence against AI R&D automation *this year.* Link below.

[Simon Mueller Stansbury @sim0nmueller]

pristine theatrics

[Simon Mueller Stansbury @sim0nmueller]

if the theory 'Trump's foreign policy is influenced by TV cycles/prime-time ready showdowns' i.e. Maduro capture, Iran bombing is right — why are we seeing pixelated cellphone footage of explosions, not shots of higher production value?

[Simon Mueller Stansbury @sim0nmueller]

Most difficult was managing the paradox: wanting to stay in Jhana, and the effort of 'tuning,' were exactly what kept pushing me out (too much craving/clinging). But over-relaxing meant slipping out too. It's walking a very tight rope

[Simon Mueller Stansbury @sim0nmueller]

I think I entered my first Jhana — typically described as MDMA-like bliss. Here's what actually worked for me after 8 days of self-guided retreat w(~6hrs/day meditating)

[Simon Mueller Stansbury @sim0nmueller]

I found this image to be useful: tuning a radio to my 'feeling frequency' until hitting resonance .. tapping into the self-reinforcing feedback loop of bliss, like the squeal when a mic gets too close to its speaker.

[Oliver Habryka @ohabryka]

Announcing our collaborating writers for the Inkhaven Residency! They'll be visiting throughout November to provide feedback & mentorship.

@a_m_mastroianni, @mold_time, @Aella_Girl, @andy_matuschak, @alexanderwales, @clarabcollier, @sashachapin

Apply by September 30!

[Robin Hanson @robinhanson]

"over 5,000 cities" across the [US] use … automated license plate readers [that] "photograph every vehicle that drives by … stored in a massive database … officials can search the database for any vehicle they wish, all without a warrant." https://t.co/Mlkg03wWbS

[Guildfather @tasshinfogleman]

it can be helpful to discuss with your friends which energies specifically are being exchanged in relationship, what you each are giving and receiving, how that feels, and what, if anything, wants to be shifted

[Simon Mueller Stansbury @sim0nmueller]

download the PDFs here: https://t.co/uAMDhMP3od

[Simon Mueller Stansbury @sim0nmueller]

Scott Alexander (@slatestarcodex )'s non-book reviews have been a source of fascination/inspiration for a number of weeks now.

[i've cut the three long google-docs into separate PDFs to read on @matter]

in awe of the community he's built

https://t.co/1vWUfrN3ck