I also agree that the Trump administration will do everything to avoid int. Rate hikes and consequently higher yields. But I'm sure that if inflation heats up again, the Fed will have to follow their independent status. If they resist to hike in Sep., they'll have to do it in Oct
Despite the manipulation, the price of oil was on average higher in August than in July. Diesel and gasoline are at ATH. There is a high probability that the Ag. CPI will reverse the trend and increase.
Fed Will have to hike. The question Will be Sep or Ocb. (1/2)
Warsh will inflate the debt away.
It was clear in February.... and it’s even clearer now.
Back in February, there was speculation about a partnership between Bessent and Warsh to synchronize the Fed’s balance sheet with Treasury financing.
A few months later, Bessent called up Warsh to print USD and provide them to the BoJ so they wouldn’t have to keep dumping USTs.
Both are in favor of yield curve control.
- This means pegging US interest rates at an artificially low level
- The Fed commits to buying enough USTs to keep yields below that cap
This would be reminiscent of the WWII period.
Back then, US debt-to-GDP was at similarly extreme levels. YCC enabled the government to borrow vast amounts without blowing out interest expenses.
Those costs were pushed onto citizens via inflation.
From 1945 to 1980, the US gradually brought debt-to-GDP down to roughly 30%, which later gave Volcker enough room to raise rates toward 20% and crush inflation.
This increasingly looks like Warsh’s and Bessent’s playbook.
The idea that Trump would nominate someone more hawkish than Powell, after attacking Powell for over a year for being too hawkish, was ridiculous to begin with.
Inflating the debt away was always the plan...
Needless to say, hard assets outperform during inflationary periods.
FED main goal is to tame inflation. If they dont do this, their credibility Will be gone.
May. CPI: 4.2%
June. 3.5%
July. 3.4%
If the August CPI comes in at 3.6% (perfectly possible given inflation in refined products and food), then a Hike will have to happen. (2/2).
$RKLB this happened 16 years ago. Enjoy this look into the past - the humble beginnings of a future space empire.
I reflected on this video today after watching @MollySOShea wrap up her tour of the @RocketLab factory - thinking about where all of this began and where it is today gave me chills.
Might be hard to imagine, but these guys are just getting started.
@Peter_J_Beck is 1/1.
The uranium market is structurally broken.
Nearly 60% of global production comes from just two countries:
- Canada: ~15%
- Kazakhstan: ~43%
The problem...
Kazakhstan alone is expected to lose ~80% of production over the next 20 years from existing mines, exactly as global demand doubles.
- Supply is shrinking.
- Demand is surging
Uranium remains a high-conviction, long-term winner.
That's a wrap on our latest checkouts for Neutron's reusable Hungry Hippo fairing ✅ The Hippo is now back inside its hangar where it will be integrated with Neutron's interstage once it arrives to the Eastern Shore.
BREAKING: Inside Rocket Lab ( $RKLB ) w/ Sir Peter Beck
FULL INTERVIEW (Part I)
We sat down with @Peter_J_Beck Founder & CEO of @RocketLab after another record quarter, $234M in revenue & $2.36B in backlog
"The lawyers hate me saying it, but global domination is definitely part of the plan."
"I didn't want to build a space company that just lives for the lifetime that I'm running it. It needed to be multi-generational."
We go deeper into Iridium, Neutron, the $397M Space Force contract to build + launch "Flatellites," & how 81% of revenue last quarter was outside of launch.
Covering:
› Why the fix for a 9-month lead time was buying the supplier
› The $8B Iridium acquisition & why he was surprised nobody saw it coming
› Why the Neutron question should be about the 10th rocket, not the 1st
› The 24-hour turnaround constraint that produced Hungry Hippo
› Flatellites, building satellites for volume rather than one at a time
Plus: building a launch industry in New Zealand from zero suppliers & no regulation, staying out of broadband to play in L-band, going public before SpaceX, GHOST & the launch site that ships in a container, & why the Archimedes engines are painted black.
𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒
(00:00) Sir Peter Beck, Founder & CEO at Rocket Lab
(00:59) Rocket Lab's biggest quarter
(02:53) The competitive edge in Space
(04:10) Rocket Lab's Acquisition Strategy
(05:04) Reason behind the Iridium Deal
(06:13) Competing with Blue Origin & SpaceX
(09:56) Rocket Lab's Global Domination
(11:19) Building a Launch Monopoly in New Zealand
(12:33) Is this why Peter got Knighted?
(16:42) Beating SpaceX to the Public Markets
(20:05) Why Neutron is still facing delays
(24:24) The reality of running a Rocket Company
(27:38) Rocket Lab's latest contract wins
(29:04) How defense became a prime mover for Rocket Lab
(30:39) Ghost: Rocket Lab's portable launch pad
(31:30) Has he seen Aliens?
(33:18) What's next for Rocket Lab?
(34:30) Where does Peter draw his inspiration?
(36:12) Why he's never read a Business book
(37:31) Why their Engine is painted black
$RKLB upside really starts when Neutron works because that’s what turns Rocket Lab into a much larger end-to-end space platform.
Piper Sandler models Neutron scaling from zero launches today to 11 annually by 2030 helping drive revenue to ~$2.5B with 31% EBITDA margins which shows how much earnings leverage comes with getting that rocket to scale.
I actually think the bigger opportunity is what comes after launch because Space Systems still remains the larger business throughout the forecast while Neutron gives Rocket Lab a lower-cost way to deploy its own constellations and eventually move deeper into the much larger space services market.