Simen Munter

Large scale human process expert, Lean geek, loves digital innovation, Robotics, Big Data, AI and a passion for tractors.

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

@BojanRadojici10 Would want the template.

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

@BojanRadojici10 Would be great to see how you suggest using Claude for finance.

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

@BojanRadojici10 Sounds very interesting with Claude & Excel

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

@TheReclamare

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

I think the largest strategic failure of EU over the last decades was its failure to include Turkey - mainly based on fears about a rapidly growing muslim population. This excellent piece by @JesusFerna7026 illustrate that Turkey is rapidly converting to the European average.

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

Yesterday, I argued that Turkey’s TFR was 1.48 in 2024, well below replacement level, and has been falling fast since 2014.

Today, I want to highlight a few additional points.

First: Turkey has the highest within-country TFR variance I’m aware of.

In Şanlıurfa, TFR was 3.28 in 2024 (comparable to Kenya). In Bartın and Eskişehir, it was 1.12 (comparable to Spain). The ratio between them is nearly 3 to 1.

By comparison, in the U.S., the highest TFR is in South Dakota (2.0), the lowest in Vermont (1.3), a ratio of 1.5.

These differences in TFR reflect significant differences between Eastern and Western Turkey (in terms of economy, society, culture, and ethnicity) and will impact Turkey’s future. Yet even with those divides, TFR is falling everywhere.

TFR in 2014:

Şanlıurfa: 4.57.
Bartın: 1.69.
Eskişehir: 1.57.

Even more striking is Şırnak. In 2000, it had a TFR of 7.06, comparable to Chad or Mali, and among the highest in the world. In 2024, it dropped to 2.62, roughly Turkey’s national level in 1998. That’s a 63% drop in 24 years. I struggle to find any other example in global demographic history of such a rapid decline in fertility.

And remember: TFR is not the crude birth rate. TFR = expected births per woman, not per population. Migration flows don’t affect it (unless those who migrate are the most fertile per woman, which would increase TFRs in the destination provinces).

As a whole, TFR in Southeast Anatolia went from 3.63 (2014) to 2.87 (2024). At this pace, the region will fall below replacement by 2030.

In other words, Turkey’s national TFR still has much room to fall, as the east continues to decline from high levels, and we may soon see Turkey’s TFR fall below the EU average, something I wouldn’t have predicted even a decade ago.

Second: Turkey is a textbook case of what @NezihGuner, @mattd_econ, and I have called “demographic contagion”:

📄 https://t.co/sVkLjYGy9a

The fall in TFR in one region is strongly influenced by previous declines in adjacent regions, even controlling for income.

In Turkey, if you map provincial TFRs over time, you see an unstoppable tidal wave moving eastward, rarely skipping or leaving provinces untouched. That dynamic, to me, is crucial.

Third: there’s little evidence this drop in TFR is driven by timing. Yes, completed fertility may end up a bit higher than current TFR estimates, but that’s a second-order difference.

Fourth (and finally): as in many countries, the 2024 UN WPP numbers for Turkey are hard to reconcile with national data.

Turkish Statistical Institute: TFR = 1.48, Births = 937,559.

UN WPP 2024: TFR = 1.85, Births = 1,196,000.

The UN does not project Turkey’s TFR to fall to 1.48 at any point before 2100 (the end of its projections). And yet it already has, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute.

This is a serious issue. Many rely on the 2024 UN WPP, but the numbers diverge massively from national statistical agencies and almost always in the same direction: UN projections show much higher TFRs and births. Why?

I could discuss the demographic future of Turkey in much more detail, but I will stop here.

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

Interessant lesning - en av de nye nobelprisvinnerne i Økonomi har funnet ut at når et selskap ansetter økonomer så faller lønningene for de ansatte med 6% både i USA og Danmark. Kanskje også i Norge?

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

@VTS_sor Noen grunn til at dere ikke vil ha noen til Risør?

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

Interessant at LO er ute og pusher kredittkort nå på sommeren - og å en måte som gjør det uklart om LO nå har begynt med kredittkort dispute handling. Eller har bare LO gitt helt frie hender til bankene de samarbeider med?

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

Nei, ikke noe spesielt å se i bank næringen 😉

Hvordan blir bankene sterkere når de deler ut disse windfall gevinstene i utbytte?

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

Dette er en av de mer oppløftende meldinger fra ECB på lang tid.

[European Central Bank @ecb]

Roses are red
Violets are blue
We're nearing our target
And we will reach 2

#ValentinesDay

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

@MacroAlf Switzerland is the riskiest? Switzerland? Makes no sense to look at debt levels in isolation without considering also the asset side of the balance sheet.

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

Veldig bra innlegg - hvorfor har det blitt normalisert å prisdiskriminere på det største finansielle instrumentet for de fleste? #huslån

[Endre Jo Reite @privatokonom1]

Stopp å henvise bankkunder til å prute på boligrenten, men rydd heller opp i prisdiskrimineringen hvor samme bank gir like kunder ulik rente - enten basert på om de pruter, eller basert på hvilke app de bruker https://t.co/bSUEc2MCzf via @LinkedIn

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

Sannsynligvis ikke så veldig forskjellig i Norge - spesielt i storbyene.

[Randy Olson @randal_olson]

#UK housing is currently the most unaffordable since Victorian times. #HousingCrisis #dataviz

Source: https://t.co/P2ARhBFqmd

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

@Michael_Balle TPS is a huge inspiration and one of the biggest inventions last century. Many are applying TPS thinking in services without reflecting on the difference in processing physical goods and processing data. Data can be reused and repurposed in ways which physical goods can’t.

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

@VidarHelgesen Det som er vanskelig å forstå er hvordan #energimeldingen vil fikse at vi har gått fra å ha nord Europas billigste til dyreste #strøm?

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

@ulf_huse Bra du startet i 1822 og stoppet i 2017 - ikke like bra story etter det.

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

Really good #leadetship advice - independent leadership should leverage the skills of your leader, not only your co-workers. #lean #agile

[Jean-Michel Lemieux @jmwind]

Another common question I’m answering working with scaling tech companies is…

Q. What’s the worst leadership advice you’ve heard?

A. By far the worst is “Hire great people and get out of their way”.

Let me explain… 🧵 (1/32)

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

This is completely right, the answer to complexity must not increase overall system complexity. #lean #SAF #agile

[Gabrielle Benefield @gbenefield]

If you need a heavyweight framework to manage complexity, perhaps you have too much complexity. Better bandaids won't stop the bleeding if you really need stitches.

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

@Giljen @singstaen @Statnett @NVE @EnergiNorge Prisen blir ikke satt av produsentene, i et fritt marked blir prisen satt av de konsumentene som er villig til å betale mest sk 'marginalprising'. Ved at vi har koblet sør Norge til UK så setter de marginalprisen også for oss.

[Simen Munter @SimenMunter]

@kariekas @EnergiNorge Helt enige med @kariekas - @energinorge må uttale seg mot bedre vitende - eller rett og slett at de ikke vet hva de snakker om. Dette er ikke et IT problem - det er en beslutningsproblem. Tid for å ta en pause og gjøre noe smartere. #nettleie #strømpris