Once people have to pay the true costs of running LLMs, usage is going to drop off a cliff. We’ve already passed peak AI in terms of fundamental capabilities.
It’s all downhill from here.
openAI is working overtime to shift the narrative from 'AGI will take your job' to 'AI will empower people'. meanwhile, talk to the researchers and they just look at you like this and say you have two years of employment left, tops
Pousser un peuple à se soulever, l'abandonner au massacre, puis pactiser avec ses bourreaux : connaît-on escroquerie morale plus achevée dans l'histoire diplomatique ?
Finally, a big name has the courage to tell it: we are nowhere near AGI.
Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind and Nobel laureate for AlphaFold, put it neat and clear:
"Today's systems are nowhere near [AGI]. Doesn't matter how many Erdős problems you solve… I think it's far, far from what a true invention, or someone like Ramanujan, would have been able to do."
This is the elephant in the room that many AI enthusiasts prefer not to see, or are actively trying to hide.
Erdős problems are well defined, often combinatorial, on finite spaces. They are exactly the kind of problems on which current AI can achieve spectacular performance with a lot of compute and knowledge.
A neural network can search a huge graph of possibilities. It can recombine existing knowledge at unprecedented scale. It can discover surprising solutions inside an already defined conceptual space.
But true invention is something else.
True invention is not only solving a problem.
It is inventing new objects, new dimensions, new connections. It is inventing new problems.
From resolving to inventing there is a discontinuity that we don't know how to bridge.
We are making extraordinary tools.
But we are nowhere close to AGI.
So the US policy of taking Russia’s side and trying to force Ukraine to surrender to occupation and slaughter has stagnated thanks to the fierce resistance of Ukrainians and their allies in Europe. Good.
As I’ve said since that first Trump term, we may never know why Trump is so loyal to Putin. Bribery? Blackmail? Affinity for dictators & oligarchs? KGB asset? All of the above? More important is stopping him, because if he were a Russian agent, what would he do differently?
Whatever you think of this war, if this doesn’t give you goosebumps, you have never experienced tyranny and the universal euphoria a promise of freedom holds.
All can still go very wrong but the joy and power of hope can be reality-shifting.
As usual, a dictator's people celebrate his demise, his long-suffering victims dance in the streets, and Western pols and pundits who have never known repression or hardship, let alone torture, criticize for partisan reasons of their own.
People are celebrating Khamenei's death in Tehran.
Chants and whistles are heard.
Javid Shah, Long live the King!
Khamenei, the oppressor, we toppled you!