Siming

Make conversations more valuable. [email protected](客知音), a leading conversation intelligence company in China. CU grad.

[Siming @simingsun]

@RemindMe_OfThis in 3 years

[Andrew Critch (🤖🩺🚀) @AndrewCritchPhD]

Without internationally enforced speed limits on AI, humanity is very unlikely to survive. From AI's perspective in 2-3 years from now, we look more like plants than animals: big slow chunks of biofuel showing weak signs of intelligence when undisturbed for ages (seconds) on end.

Here's us from the perspective of a system just 50x faster than us:
https://t.co/v1ZuGC0uas

Over the next decade, expect AI with more like a 100x - 1,000,000x speed advantage over us. Why?

Neurons fire at ~1000 times/second at most, while computer chips "fire" a million times faster than that. Current AI has not been distilled to run maximally efficiently, but will almost certainly run 100x faster than humans, and 1,000,000x is conceivable given the hardware speed difference.

"But plants are still around!", you say. "Maybe AI will keep humans around as nature reserves." Possible, but unlikely if it's not speed-limited. Remember, ~99.9% of all species on Earth have gone extinct:
https://t.co/nytc1GHsCL

When people demand "extraordinary" evidence for the "extraordinary" claim that humanity will perish when faced with intelligent systems 100 to 1,000,000 times faster than us, remember that the "ordinary" thing to happen to a species is extinction, not survival. As many now argue, "I can't predict how a world-class chess AI will checkmate you, but I can predict who will win the game."

And for all the conversations we're having about "alignment" and how AI will serve humans as peers or assistants, please try to remember the video above. To future AI, we're not chimps; we're plants.

[Andrew Critch (🤖🩺🚀) @AndrewCritchPhD]

Without internationally enforced speed limits on AI, humanity is very unlikely to survive. From AI's perspective in 2-3 years from now, we look more like plants than animals: big slow chunks of biofuel showing weak signs of intelligence when undisturbed for ages (seconds) on end.

Here's us from the perspective of a system just 50x faster than us:
https://t.co/v1ZuGC0uas

Over the next decade, expect AI with more like a 100x - 1,000,000x speed advantage over us. Why?

Neurons fire at ~1000 times/second at most, while computer chips "fire" a million times faster than that. Current AI has not been distilled to run maximally efficiently, but will almost certainly run 100x faster than humans, and 1,000,000x is conceivable given the hardware speed difference.

"But plants are still around!", you say. "Maybe AI will keep humans around as nature reserves." Possible, but unlikely if it's not speed-limited. Remember, ~99.9% of all species on Earth have gone extinct:
https://t.co/nytc1GHsCL

When people demand "extraordinary" evidence for the "extraordinary" claim that humanity will perish when faced with intelligent systems 100 to 1,000,000 times faster than us, remember that the "ordinary" thing to happen to a species is extinction, not survival. As many now argue, "I can't predict how a world-class chess AI will checkmate you, but I can predict who will win the game."

And for all the conversations we're having about "alignment" and how AI will serve humans as peers or assistants, please try to remember the video above. To future AI, we're not chimps; we're plants.

[Tony Zhao @tonyzzhao]

Introducing ALOHA 🏖: 𝐀 𝐋ow-cost 𝐎pen-source 𝐇𝐀rdware System for Bimanual Teleoperation

After 8 months iterating @stanford and 2 months working with beta users, we are finally ready to release it!

Here is what ALOHA is capable of:

[François Fleuret @francoisfleuret]

What model of attention allows to have so big contexts ?

[Siming @simingsun]

有没有一种可能，Andrej Karpathy从Tesla 离职加入OpenAI，是因为看到自动驾驶，按照今天的范式发展，已经到头了。换句话说，自动驾驶是一个AGI complete的问题，只有AGI才能解决自动驾驶，而实现AGI的路径只有用过以语言为基础的（多模态）大模型。

[Siming @simingsun]

有媒体说OpenAI自己下场，扼杀了类似LangChain这样公司的创新。我想说，在成为操作系统这条路上，LangChain的技术路线根本实现不了。LangChain干的事情就是一个小灵通，而OpenAI想做iPhone，你会觉得iPhone扼杀了小灵通的创新吗？

[Siming @simingsun]

ChatGPT或者LUI（Language User Interface）是下一个时代的操作系统，这句话有很多人在提，我同意这个说法，但是我认为很多人没有想到或者理解到背后的深意，我认为这句话有三个层次：

[Siming @simingsun]

Andrew Ng在2021年说，ML和AI已经从模型为中心，变到以数据为中心。我想再进一步，NLP领域甚至是AI领域的发展已经从奖励归纳偏置，到奖励泛化，所有没有把泛化当成是一等公民的努力，在短期来看可能还有市场，但是长期来看一定都是白费。

[Siming @simingsun]

4. 最后还有把负面内容归于P图的PR思路。甚至发布一些最后被证伪的负面消息来模糊焦点。

[Siming @simingsun]

之前说过百度文心一言一定不会对大众开放，现在已经发布了，果然是通过邀请码做总量控制。
百度的发布策略是非常聪明的：
1. 通过显性的水印（页面上也有隐形的水印）来提醒用户，生成不合适的内容是我的问题，但是传播不合适的内容就是你的问题了。

[Siming @simingsun]

3. 因为大部分人无法第一时间登陆，所以只传播“咒语（提示词）”，也无法造成广泛传播，负面影响可控。

[Siming @simingsun]

基于gpt4论文里面的信息量，openai应该改名叫closeai。

[Siming @simingsun]

关于GPT4的一些看法:
一个最现实的降维打击案例。gpt4的输出已经可以作为标注数据。模型在20种其它语言上的表现，比我们的主语言更好。#gpt4

[Siming @simingsun]

大语言模型和外部世界的接口是代码。代码可以连接各种api来改变数字世界，也可以控制机器改变物理世界。大语言模型是改造世界的大脑和操作系统。