Warsh has signaled he wants to change the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
The Fed has used Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, as its benchmark since 2000. Warsh favors Trimmed Mean PCE, which removes the most extreme price movements each month instead of excluding whole categories.
The practical difference: Trimmed Mean PCE currently reads 2.36%, well below the 3.20% reading on Core PCE. Depending on which measure the Fed follows, the case for rate cuts looks very different.
This is not a minor procedural change. The metric the Fed uses to gauge inflation directly determines when it judges the economy to be at target.
If Warsh moves the committee toward Trimmed Mean PCE, he is mathematically moving the Fed closer to a declared victory on inflation, which creates runway for rate cuts even as headline readings stay elevated.
You’d think with 400+ Ph.D. economists and 500+ researchers on the payroll, the Fed would run the most sophisticated macro forecasting operation on the planet, leaving Bloomberg and every major hedge fund in the dust. Not even close. When the data doesn’t cooperate, just change the data.
Same thing I saw in the Army when time or weather worked against higher leadership, and we would quietly move the goalposts rather than admit the standard couldn’t be met. Can you tell why I didn’t stick around for the full 20 years?
Looks like the real trade as a local is either getting out of NYC/US over the summer (if I can afford it), or becoming an Uber driver in NJ during this World Cup.
그냥 본다. 충분히 본다. 그리고 사라지게 둔다. 기억에 남으면 남는 것이고, 희미해지면 희미해지는 것이다. 뇌가 중요하다고 판단한 것만 남기고 나머지는 흘려보낸다. 그것이 내 몸이 선택한 것이다. 뇌가 선택한 것이다. 그 선택을 나는 신뢰한다. 신뢰하지 않아도 어쩔 수 없다.
삶은 통과하는 것이다.
아무것도 저장할 수 없다. 언젠가 죽을 것이다. 갤러리의 사진들은 아무 의미가 없다. 내가 찍어두지 못한 장면들, 내 손의 추위, 어느 저녁의 냄새, 한 번 스쳐간 사람의 표정. 그것들도 나와 함께 사라질 것이다.
그러면 된다.
나는 그것들을 잘 통과했다. 직접 몸으로 받아냈다.
그것으로 충분하다.