![DarioCpx's tweet photo. #JustDarioDaily
🚨 $NVDA - THE (FRAUD) SMOKING GUN?🚨
As I write, $NVDA is up 8.56% in After Hours trading after releasing their "monster" Q4-23 results. Compared to the Q3-23 report, there isn't much change in all the red flags 🚩 I highlighted before [Post Below], but while I was comparing the two, my eye caught something strange.
Before I go forward, in case you don’t know, I would like to flag that $NVDA's Q4 is shifted 1 month forward compared to the majority of listed companies. Hence, it runs from the 1st of November till the end of January of the next year.
Alright, time to grab your 🍿 now.
1 - In the last report, $NVDA declared that they repurchased a total of 21m shares, paying $9.7bn throughout their latest fiscal year. What’s interesting about this? Unusually, since companies always report shares bought in the quarter and in YTD in intermediate earnings reports, $NVDA doesn’t mention how many shares were bought back during the last quarter 🚩 (Picture 1).
Odd, isn’t it? 🤔
2 - Alright, Jensen, let’s go figure this out. As we can see in Picture 2 from the Q3-23 report, up until the last quarter, $NVDA repurchased 15.9m shares, paying $7.01bn. Applying some quick math, we can figure out $NVDA bought back 5.1m shares in the last quarter, paying $2.69bn. Alright, what’s wrong with this?
🔫 💨- Applying some easy math again, we can quickly figure out that the average price $NVDA paid in Q4 was $527. Do you know what was the average price of $NVDA shares during Q4 overall? As a simple average, $492; as an average weighted by the trading volumes, $502.
In the Q3-23 report, $NVDA kindly provided us with an extra piece of information: "From October 30, 2023, through November 17, 2023, we repurchased 0.8m shares for $366m pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan."
Alright, that means that in the first ~20% of the quarter, $NVDA repurchased ~20% of the shares. Nothing uncommon here. It's actually pretty normal for companies to run buybacks at regular schedules. Otherwise, they might easily breach SEC insider trading rules if caught in actively manipulating their #stocks prices 😅
Considering what I said, $NVDA should then continue its share buyback program regularly for the remaining 80% of the quarter, right?
Now, if we exclude the 800k shares repurchased for $366m, then $NVDA would have been left with 4.3m shares to repurchase for $2.324bn, right? That means the average price for that buyback is $540.47. What was $NVDA's average price between November 17, 2023, and January 29, 2024? $510.9 the simple average, or $513.7 the volume-weighted average.
🚩 Putting it all together, $NVDA overpaid ~6.9% to repurchase its own shares in Q4, equivalent to $187m. Now, please have a look at the line "Unsettled Share Repurchases" in Picture 3. What’s the amount? $187m!
Now, as everyone familiar with buybacks knows, shares repurchased are settled immediately through your custodian. What about call options though? Well… that actually fits in the category of "Unsettled Share Repurchases"! 😉
I will end with a question: What do you think are the chances $NVDA is overpaying its #stocks buybacks so someone else can, on their behalf, use that money to play the OTM call options gamma squeeze game on $NVDA stock?
THE END 🙇🏻♂️](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GG58TQIagAEc7_g.jpg)
![DarioCpx's tweet photo. #JustDarioDaily
🚨 $NVDA - THE (FRAUD) SMOKING GUN?🚨
As I write, $NVDA is up 8.56% in After Hours trading after releasing their "monster" Q4-23 results. Compared to the Q3-23 report, there isn't much change in all the red flags 🚩 I highlighted before [Post Below], but while I was comparing the two, my eye caught something strange.
Before I go forward, in case you don’t know, I would like to flag that $NVDA's Q4 is shifted 1 month forward compared to the majority of listed companies. Hence, it runs from the 1st of November till the end of January of the next year.
Alright, time to grab your 🍿 now.
1 - In the last report, $NVDA declared that they repurchased a total of 21m shares, paying $9.7bn throughout their latest fiscal year. What’s interesting about this? Unusually, since companies always report shares bought in the quarter and in YTD in intermediate earnings reports, $NVDA doesn’t mention how many shares were bought back during the last quarter 🚩 (Picture 1).
Odd, isn’t it? 🤔
2 - Alright, Jensen, let’s go figure this out. As we can see in Picture 2 from the Q3-23 report, up until the last quarter, $NVDA repurchased 15.9m shares, paying $7.01bn. Applying some quick math, we can figure out $NVDA bought back 5.1m shares in the last quarter, paying $2.69bn. Alright, what’s wrong with this?
🔫 💨- Applying some easy math again, we can quickly figure out that the average price $NVDA paid in Q4 was $527. Do you know what was the average price of $NVDA shares during Q4 overall? As a simple average, $492; as an average weighted by the trading volumes, $502.
In the Q3-23 report, $NVDA kindly provided us with an extra piece of information: "From October 30, 2023, through November 17, 2023, we repurchased 0.8m shares for $366m pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan."
Alright, that means that in the first ~20% of the quarter, $NVDA repurchased ~20% of the shares. Nothing uncommon here. It's actually pretty normal for companies to run buybacks at regular schedules. Otherwise, they might easily breach SEC insider trading rules if caught in actively manipulating their #stocks prices 😅
Considering what I said, $NVDA should then continue its share buyback program regularly for the remaining 80% of the quarter, right?
Now, if we exclude the 800k shares repurchased for $366m, then $NVDA would have been left with 4.3m shares to repurchase for $2.324bn, right? That means the average price for that buyback is $540.47. What was $NVDA's average price between November 17, 2023, and January 29, 2024? $510.9 the simple average, or $513.7 the volume-weighted average.
🚩 Putting it all together, $NVDA overpaid ~6.9% to repurchase its own shares in Q4, equivalent to $187m. Now, please have a look at the line "Unsettled Share Repurchases" in Picture 3. What’s the amount? $187m!
Now, as everyone familiar with buybacks knows, shares repurchased are settled immediately through your custodian. What about call options though? Well… that actually fits in the category of "Unsettled Share Repurchases"! 😉
I will end with a question: What do you think are the chances $NVDA is overpaying its #stocks buybacks so someone else can, on their behalf, use that money to play the OTM call options gamma squeeze game on $NVDA stock?
THE END 🙇🏻♂️](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GG58TQGbIAAwqxC.jpg)
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🚨 $NVDA - THE (FRAUD) SMOKING GUN?🚨
As I write, $NVDA is up 8.56% in After Hours trading after releasing their "monster" Q4-23 results. Compared to the Q3-23 report, there isn't much change in all the red flags 🚩 I highlighted before [Post Below], but while I was comparing the two, my eye caught something strange.
Before I go forward, in case you don’t know, I would like to flag that $NVDA's Q4 is shifted 1 month forward compared to the majority of listed companies. Hence, it runs from the 1st of November till the end of January of the next year.
Alright, time to grab your 🍿 now.
1 - In the last report, $NVDA declared that they repurchased a total of 21m shares, paying $9.7bn throughout their latest fiscal year. What’s interesting about this? Unusually, since companies always report shares bought in the quarter and in YTD in intermediate earnings reports, $NVDA doesn’t mention how many shares were bought back during the last quarter 🚩 (Picture 1).
Odd, isn’t it? 🤔
2 - Alright, Jensen, let’s go figure this out. As we can see in Picture 2 from the Q3-23 report, up until the last quarter, $NVDA repurchased 15.9m shares, paying $7.01bn. Applying some quick math, we can figure out $NVDA bought back 5.1m shares in the last quarter, paying $2.69bn. Alright, what’s wrong with this?
🔫 💨- Applying some easy math again, we can quickly figure out that the average price $NVDA paid in Q4 was $527. Do you know what was the average price of $NVDA shares during Q4 overall? As a simple average, $492; as an average weighted by the trading volumes, $502.
In the Q3-23 report, $NVDA kindly provided us with an extra piece of information: "From October 30, 2023, through November 17, 2023, we repurchased 0.8m shares for $366m pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan."
Alright, that means that in the first ~20% of the quarter, $NVDA repurchased ~20% of the shares. Nothing uncommon here. It's actually pretty normal for companies to run buybacks at regular schedules. Otherwise, they might easily breach SEC insider trading rules if caught in actively manipulating their #stocks prices 😅
Considering what I said, $NVDA should then continue its share buyback program regularly for the remaining 80% of the quarter, right?
Now, if we exclude the 800k shares repurchased for $366m, then $NVDA would have been left with 4.3m shares to repurchase for $2.324bn, right? That means the average price for that buyback is $540.47. What was $NVDA's average price between November 17, 2023, and January 29, 2024? $510.9 the simple average, or $513.7 the volume-weighted average.
🚩 Putting it all together, $NVDA overpaid ~6.9% to repurchase its own shares in Q4, equivalent to $187m. Now, please have a look at the line "Unsettled Share Repurchases" in Picture 3. What’s the amount? $187m!
Now, as everyone familiar with buybacks knows, shares repurchased are settled immediately through your custodian. What about call options though? Well… that actually fits in the category of "Unsettled Share Repurchases"! 😉
I will end with a question: What do you think are the chances $NVDA is overpaying its #stocks buybacks so someone else can, on their behalf, use that money to play the OTM call options gamma squeeze game on $NVDA stock?
THE END 🙇🏻♂️
![DarioCpx's tweet photo. #JustDarioDaily
🚨 $NVDA - THE (FRAUD) SMOKING GUN?🚨
As I write, $NVDA is up 8.56% in After Hours trading after releasing their "monster" Q4-23 results. Compared to the Q3-23 report, there isn't much change in all the red flags 🚩 I highlighted before [Post Below], but while I was comparing the two, my eye caught something strange.
Before I go forward, in case you don’t know, I would like to flag that $NVDA's Q4 is shifted 1 month forward compared to the majority of listed companies. Hence, it runs from the 1st of November till the end of January of the next year.
Alright, time to grab your 🍿 now.
1 - In the last report, $NVDA declared that they repurchased a total of 21m shares, paying $9.7bn throughout their latest fiscal year. What’s interesting about this? Unusually, since companies always report shares bought in the quarter and in YTD in intermediate earnings reports, $NVDA doesn’t mention how many shares were bought back during the last quarter 🚩 (Picture 1).
Odd, isn’t it? 🤔
2 - Alright, Jensen, let’s go figure this out. As we can see in Picture 2 from the Q3-23 report, up until the last quarter, $NVDA repurchased 15.9m shares, paying $7.01bn. Applying some quick math, we can figure out $NVDA bought back 5.1m shares in the last quarter, paying $2.69bn. Alright, what’s wrong with this?
🔫 💨- Applying some easy math again, we can quickly figure out that the average price $NVDA paid in Q4 was $527. Do you know what was the average price of $NVDA shares during Q4 overall? As a simple average, $492; as an average weighted by the trading volumes, $502.
In the Q3-23 report, $NVDA kindly provided us with an extra piece of information: "From October 30, 2023, through November 17, 2023, we repurchased 0.8m shares for $366m pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan."
Alright, that means that in the first ~20% of the quarter, $NVDA repurchased ~20% of the shares. Nothing uncommon here. It's actually pretty normal for companies to run buybacks at regular schedules. Otherwise, they might easily breach SEC insider trading rules if caught in actively manipulating their #stocks prices 😅
Considering what I said, $NVDA should then continue its share buyback program regularly for the remaining 80% of the quarter, right?
Now, if we exclude the 800k shares repurchased for $366m, then $NVDA would have been left with 4.3m shares to repurchase for $2.324bn, right? That means the average price for that buyback is $540.47. What was $NVDA's average price between November 17, 2023, and January 29, 2024? $510.9 the simple average, or $513.7 the volume-weighted average.
🚩 Putting it all together, $NVDA overpaid ~6.9% to repurchase its own shares in Q4, equivalent to $187m. Now, please have a look at the line "Unsettled Share Repurchases" in Picture 3. What’s the amount? $187m!
Now, as everyone familiar with buybacks knows, shares repurchased are settled immediately through your custodian. What about call options though? Well… that actually fits in the category of "Unsettled Share Repurchases"! 😉
I will end with a question: What do you think are the chances $NVDA is overpaying its #stocks buybacks so someone else can, on their behalf, use that money to play the OTM call options gamma squeeze game on $NVDA stock?
THE END 🙇🏻♂️](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GG58TQKawAApx4w.jpg)
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