Simon Johansen

👨🏽‍💻 Full-time EV Model developer. Former player with CS B.S🎓 9000+ bets / ROI 112.7% / 2000u+ profit all time. Follow my bets:

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

🚨If you're interested in tailing all my bets:

My group is launching again with the new season. This is where I'll post all my bets from the mathematical models. Capped group with SERIOUS BETTORS only. More details about the service, bookies, markets and general info can be viewed in the bot below.

Been working on a lot of new projects and improvements over the summer, and have been posting bets to past members in August while getting the group ready for September. Since the last update to the models on August 9th:

Total Summary:
106 bets
📈 ROI% 121.3
💰+17.86u
15/19 days in profit

All-time Group Stats (2021-)
📊 11,178 bets
💰+747.28u
📈 ROI% 110.5
1u= £25= +£18,682
1u= £50 = +£37,364
1u = £100 = +£74,728

Spots have now been opened up: first-come first-served principle counts. Once the group is filled, the bot will close. You can join and view a lot more info here:
https://t.co/7hTUoNICXF

Feel free to ask any questions. I'll continue to post occasional free bets to those who want to wait before joining my group!

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

@Kaz_cbk "Hey ChatGPT, give me the best bets for today and combine them in a parlay that will guarantee a win"

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

Finding it hard to make money on sports betting?

If you don't have the time, why do it yourself? Never been easier to find a quality service that does all the work for you, all you do is sit back and tail the bets. Or, find a great statistics site that can save you time on your analysis. There are many talented people in this field.

With more competition in the markets, you need to spend time analyzing and understanding data/markets to be profitable long term. The most basic analysis is already incorporated into the odds in most markets, because data is more available and more people are involved in sports betting. Which means the edge isn't there, and that's why you're losing.

However, when evaluating the service. Consider everything and figure out what's best for you. If you don't have many accounts, don't choose a service that bets days before matchday, uses softbooks, and plays tiny markets. You won't last. Always remember, betting is a marathon, not a sprint. You'll just get limited and that's your journey done on that bookie. Got tons of accounts? Then you can recycle and pull a lot of money from these markets of course. Focus on bigger markets and bigger leagues, account longevity is so valuable these days. But remember, it's harder to make a ton of profit here because it's a bigger market. A 5-8 ROI% IS IMPRESSIVE. You are not going to achieve a 10-15 ROI% on a big market unless you have access to data or information that 90% of the market doesn't have.

But along with the growing talent, there's also an increasing number of services that are basically just marketing schemes to lure you into subscribing. That's how they make their money, not from betting.

The very first thing you should check: is there a public spreadsheet? If it doesn't exist, there should be a ton of questions going on in your head. Why doesn't a person claiming to be profitable publicly display their results? Maybe because they are trying to hide something and it's not really what it seems to be. Ask them a question, and they block you or don't respond? Well there you go, that's your answer. It's so easy to seem like a winner these days. You just post your winning bets and not your losses, and your account looks like you are constantly winning. Marketing scheme. Completely avoid. Also make sure they post daily/monthly summaries.

I could write a book about everything I know about this field. I've been involved in it for 10 years now and I've seen how it's changed. There are many great services out there, just make sure you get familiar with their work, make sure they are transparent and figure out if that service is for you.

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

The amount of AI slop betting pages commenting on my posts or DM'ing me now is so dumb. Not just me, but all popular tipsters' posts too.

Automation and AI bring some degenerate content to the betting world, it's getting ridiculous. What happened to originality and creativity?

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

Great start to the November group!

📊23 bets
✅ Wins 15 | ✖︎ Loss 8
⚖️ AvgStake 0.99u
📈 ROI% 29.3
💰+8.71u

Continuing the good form.

More bookies/markets/leagues coming soon to the service too after more backtesting on newer models.

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

Seeing a lot of pages post tips like this:

X has won in last 3/3 games
X has won in last 4/5 games
X has won in last 9/12 games
X has won in last 6/8 games
...

By constantly changing the sample size, you create the illusion of strong trends, when you're really just selecting whichever historical window makes each statistic look the most impressive.

That's how you introduce selection bias.

If you can freely choose between the last 3, 5, 8, 12, 15 or 20 games, you're much more likely to find a window that supports whatever narrative you're trying to sell.

A team or player line might have won 4 of its last 5 games, but only 4 of its last 15. By selecting the last 5, you turn an otherwise unimpressive record into an apparent 80% hit rate.

You'll quickly realize you are overfitting your predictions. And in the long term, I'll guarantee this is not +EV.

This looks appealing to recreational bettors, but all of us who work with statistics know that this does not beat the market.

At the very least, zoom out the picture as well. Look at rates or averages over longer periods and you'll get more stable results. You can find value in the short term, but make sure you separate randomness from genuine changes, such as a player playing in a different position etc.

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

Winners selected at random:

@Jannekofot & @kasper_ottosen

Congrats🥳 Send me a DM to claim your spots.

To the rest, look out for another giveaway!

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

🎁 Giveaway:

Interested in my group but haven't joined yet? Try to get a spot for free:

I'll be giving away two spots in my Main group for free in November.

To join, simply:
♥️ Like this post
👤 Follow me

Good luck🍀 Winners will be picked in 2 days.

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

Good luck to all tipsters in November🤝

Except for the ones:
• Who claim they are profitable with no public spreadsheet
• Only post winning slips
• Uses fake or edited betslips
• Copies other tipsters bets
• Claiming their bets are rigged or "sure bets"
• Deletes losing bets after posting them
• Claims every loss was a robbery
• Posts bets days in advance on soft books (except bigger markets ofc)
• Says "double your stake to recover yesterday's loss"
• Blames every losing month on "variance" but every winning month on "skill"
• Doesn't understand what CLV is

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

Last chance to get a spot for free in my group!

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

🎁 Giveaway:

Interested in my group but haven't joined yet? Try to get a spot for free:

I'll be giving away two spots in my Main group for free in November.

To join, simply:
♥️ Like this post
👤 Follow me

Good luck🍀 Winners will be picked in 2 days.

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

First bets in the November group:

Total Summary:
12 bets
📈 ROI% 2.3
💰+0.3u

Mistake on Londrina v America, where the models missed that both teams were already relegated to Serie C. This might have caused the low tempo, but we still finished in the green.

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

@brysonbonus 29 bets, not 29 units staked. Total units were 25u with +1.98u.

(1.98/25)*100 = 7.91

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

October Group results:

Total Summary:
📊332 bets
✅ Wins 192 | ✖︎ Loss 140
⚖️ AvgStake 0.89u
📈 ROI% 8.47
💰+24.97u
+£2,497 (£100 unit)

Solid month overall with healthy profit. ROI% ran a bit lower than expected because of that one bad day we had on the 24th, but steady profit throughout the month.

Volume is slowly picking up, and there is still much more to come. I am just overwhelmed with tasks and projects at the moment, but expecting volume to rise even more in the next months when more markets are introduced. This is still results from team shots only(!) more markets and bookies should come in November.

Current results since the last update to the models on August 9th:
Total Summary:
578 bets
📈 ROI% 108.3
💰+39.68u

Lets keep it going!

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

Unlucky with the free bet again. Weird curse on those recently, but a few select bets can have a lot of variance. My group finished the day in the green though! (all bets posted in the image):

Total Summary:
29 bets
📈 ROI% 107.9
💰+1.98u

October summary coming up!

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

Free bet (KO in ~1 hour):

🇦🇷 Deportivo Riestra v Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba Over 11.5 Shots @ 1.83 (1.25u)

Think the market is underestimating Talleres here. My models have their expected shots at 13.2821. Ideally want Riestra to take the lead.

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

Free bet (KO in ~1 hour):

🇦🇷 Deportivo Riestra v Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba Over 11.5 Shots @ 1.83 (1.25u)

Think the market is underestimating Talleres here. My models have their expected shots at 13.2821. Ideally want Riestra to take the lead.

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

🎁 Giveaway:

Interested in my group but haven't joined yet? Try to get a spot for free:

I'll be giving away two spots in my Main group for free in November.

To join, simply:
♥️ Like this post
👤 Follow me

Good luck🍀 Winners will be picked in 2 days.

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

Thursday in my group:

Total Summary:
3 bets
📈 ROI% 133.6
💰+0.93u

Good return. Needed a few more shots from Atalanta, the rest was clear.

A few more days before we round off October.

Look out for more free bets and a giveaway coming soon!

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

✖︎ Ends on 6 shots. Tijuana ended up scoring early, and Club America couldn’t score. Some unexpected scenarios with the free bets. Shifted quickly to 10.5 though.

Private group ends in a profit (bets in image):
Total Summary:
10 bets
📈 ROI% 103.5
💰+0.3u

October is currently at +18.33u. 289 bets.

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

One Free bet for later today:

🇲🇽Club America v Tijuana
Tijuana Over 9.5 Shots @ 1.8 (1u)

Bet365 like usual.

Club America has been letting in more shots under Guillermo Almada. Also liking Tijuana's numbers recently.

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

One Free bet for later today:

🇲🇽Club America v Tijuana
Tijuana Over 9.5 Shots @ 1.8 (1u)

Bet365 like usual.

Club America has been letting in more shots under Guillermo Almada. Also liking Tijuana's numbers recently.

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

@pherinho Crazy to think it's been 6 years now, a true pleasure mate! Haha, only the OG's will remember FoTBets😂

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

Throwback to the golden profit era of props ~2016-2021

Where lines from the bookies were horribly inaccurate, we had unders for all player props in all countries, limits were way better, odds lasted longer, and only a handful of successful tipsters were competing.

Wild times. In the current market, I don't think I'll ever achieve the results I had back then:

📊1582 bets
💰+1 132.94u
📈 ROI% 17.87

No surprise Bet365/Kambi had to make a lot of changes to reduce their losses. They've improved their internal models, reduced liquidity to make lines sharper, removed unders, cracked down on tipster groups and made odds shift quickly, and limitation risks are higher than ever.

Meanwhile, the number of tipster groups and the availability of data analysis tools have increased competition.

Still, always a new way to find an edge in today's markets, but definitely not as easy as it was back then. You could have built a very basic model and beaten the market by a mile😅

[Simon Johansen @simonjbets]

TODAY🆘

✅Pukki U2.5 shots
✅Pukki U1.5 SOT
✅Bowen O1.5 shots
✅Bur U7.5 shots
✅Wood U1.5 shots
✅U19.5 fouls
✅Che U15.5 shots
✅U25.5 shots
✅She +3 SOT
✅Jorg O79.5 passes
✅She +0 cards
✅Che U1.5 cards
✅Bri U2.5 SOT
✅Bri U16.5 TI
✖️Wat U13.5 shot

ROI% 166.7
💰 +38.7U