Brent pushed above 110 and tagged 112 earlier this week after Houthi attacks on Saudi sites, including the Shaybah oilfield and Dammam airport. The move did not hold, and price is now back around 108 on the 4H chart.
Markets priced in the supply risk, but with no confirmed loss of Saudi output the premium faded quickly. Threats around the Strait of Hormuz were also part of the backdrop.
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CPI came in hot, and then PPI landed far above what the market was expecting, which is the kind of data that makes everyone turn to the Fed for answers.
The Fed said very little, and when its next move was left unsignalled at the IMF event, the market clearly wanted more. Traders are now looking for confirmation around an October rate hike, with pricing already leaning toward a much higher chance of one in December.
@BC_Richfield walks through the strange part of the story, because after all that hot inflation, yields actually fell, as investors went looking for an escape in defensive assets.
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$STRK pumped, so what now? After a sharp move like that, most traders ask the same question.
@BC_Richfield walks through what he looks at once the move is over, starting with how price came back to a former resistance and how it reacted when it retested that area.
He also checks a nearby demand zone to see whether buyers are still showing up there, which says a lot about how the chart is behaving.
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WTI crude is trading just above $100, up from early-October lows around $87.
On the 4H chart, price has moved above the $100 area after a rounded recovery from the $87 zone, the same area that capped price in late August.
Middle East supply risks and geopolitical tensions keep oil elevated. Higher oil keeps inflation concerns in focus, which bonds and rate expectations are sensitive to.
Nasdaq fell 4.5% last week, ending 4 weeks of gains.
Investors sold AI and chip stocks hard. They worry companies are spending too much on AI infrastructure and may not get returns fast enough.
Hotter inflation and higher oil prices added pressure, raising fears of more rate hikes.
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Europeโs gas benchmark hit 85-87 EUR per MWh, its highest level in nearly 4 years.
Storage at about 74% and Middle East supply risks are keeping prices elevated.
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Hands are among the hardest components to build, so this is a part of the supply chain worth watching as the humanoid race develops.