simplex

go for the jugular

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

Good take

My guess is
- demand for intelligence is near infinite
- but 80% of workloads will be running on 99% cheaper models within 12-18 months
- 20% of workloads will still run on latest gen models where IQ maxing is important (scientific breakthroughs, higher level ochestrator agents?)
- rough analogy might be what % of macbooks or gaming PCs sold have the maxed out specs for CPU/GPU, prices are falling much faster than Moore's law here though
- this leads me to think the limiting factor will be energy and compute, not better models

At Coinbase we're working hard on routing prompts to cheaper models where appropriate, and in some cases have been able to keep costs roughly flat, while token usage continues to grow exponentially.

[simplex @simplexmethod]

What’s begun is half done.

[simplex @simplexmethod]

@BoringBiz_ I don't think it's model vs app layer. It's whether the app needs frontier intelligence or a "good enough" model. Labs eat the first bucket (e.g. coding, cyber). App layer takes the rest (e.g. customer support), where cost and speed dominate.