S i N C E 93

Une mer calme ne forme pas de marins d'expérience...

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

L’intro $SPCX marque le pivot de la Tech US...

✅️fin du cycle cash positif
(1 800 Md$ buybacks/ 10 ans).

❌️Début du cycle cashburn
(5000 Md$ de Capex/ 5 ans)

🎰 CA cible du business ia:
(A valo constante )
🏁2500Md$/ an...

#thereisnofreelunch

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

@Meteovilles J’́aurais aimé avoir votre avis éclairé, en vous remerciant

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

@Meteovilles @infoclimat Bonjour Guillaume, certains comptes X ( que j’estime ne pas avoir l'expertise et le serieux du vôtre) évoquent déjà un possible blocage en Omega en juillet lors d’un 2eme épisode caniculaire très rapproché.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

Big Tech's $1 trillion AI moat just got DESTROYED by a free Chinese download.

Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are pouring fortunes into chips and data centers because they have been told that whoever builds the biggest model wins, and that lead becomes a fortress no one can cross.

Last week a lab called Zhipu - it trades in Hong Kong as Knowledge Atlas Technology - released a model called GLM-5.2 and destroyed that idea in a single afternoon.

It's open weights under an MIT license, which means anyone on earth can download it and build on it for free. On the coding and design benchmarks that actually matter, it went toe to toe with the best models America has - matching even Anthropic's Mythos-class work and beating OpenAI's flagship outright on the coding test everyone watches. And it does the work at roughly one-sixth the price.

ONE-SIXTH

And barely a year and a half ago a model called DeepSeek did the same thing and wiped the better part of $600 billion off Nvidia in a single session.

This was only the first chapter.

You cannot dig a moat around something your competitor is happy to give away. If 95% of frontier capability is free, open, and runs at a fraction of the cost, then the hundreds of billions being spent to defend the last 5% is NOT a moat.

And now for the irony:

The company that just proved the moat is worthless is itself the single most absurd valuation I have seen in a long career of watching absurd valuations.

Zhipu did about $105 million in revenue last year and lost more than 4x what it took in. This week the market handed it a value of roughly $128 billion - at the peak, north of a 1,000x sales - on a float so thin that barely 4% of the stock actually trades.

THINK about this...

A company drowning in losses, doing 9 figures of revenue, priced like it does hundreds of billions, with almost nothing available to sell.

So we now have a bubble in China detonating the entire justification for a bubble in America. Two manias pointed straight at each other.

This is the lesson I've spent 45 years trying to beat into people.

You can ignore valuation for a long time but you cannot ignore it forever.

A moat story sold a trillion dollars of spending, a free download just exposed it, and the company that exposed it is priced for a fantasy of its own.

When the picks-and-shovels crowd loses its monopoly on the picks, you want to be very careful what you are paying for the shovels.

Numbers don't lie.

Shoutout to @LimitlessFT - they were onto this story before almost anyone on Wall Street. One of the sharpest AI shows out there.

[IsoBourse @IsoBourse]

Edenred vs Stellantis : Pourquoi le modèle valide l'un et écarte l'autre
https://t.co/ROQBUHR1r4

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔Vanguard published its annual retirement report based on nearly 5 million accounts. The average 401k balance hit a record $167,970, up 13% from last year. The median balance is $44,115. Hardship withdrawals hit 6% of participants in 2025, triple the pre-pandemic rate and the sixth straight annual increase. The median hardship withdrawal was $1,900.

My Take
The average gets the headlines because it hit a record high, up 13%. But the median describes what most people actually have, and that number is $44,115. At a 4% withdrawal rate that's $147 a month. Nobody retires on that.

The retirement system in this country works for people who have access to a good plan with auto-enrollment and a company match. Vanguard's own data proves it. Those workers save. But millions of Americans have no employer plan at all, and the ones who do drain what they've saved just to get through the month. Six straight years of hardship withdrawal increases. The median pull was $1,900. That's a car repair or a medical bill, and now the retirement account is smaller and the problem compounds.

Hedgie🤗

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

@fuckthedip Marc que le marché estime que la hausse du gasoil pèse sur les marges je veux bien.
Mais en fait ce n’est pas le cas il y a une surcharge gasoil qui est indexée automatiquement.
STEF l’applique, les chargeurs paient...
Les rares transporteurs poussés a ne pas le faire ferment.

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

L’intro $SPCX marque le pivot de la Tech US...

✅️fin du cycle cash positif
(1 800 Md$ buybacks/ 10 ans).

❌️Début du cycle cashburn
(5000 Md$ de Capex/ 5 ans)

🎰 CA cible du business ia:
(A valo constante )
🏁2500Md$/ an...

#thereisnofreelunch

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

@bihan35 Arbitrage de l’argent le plus liquide vers l’ipo de spaceX...peut-être...
le logiciel continue aussi de se faire saigner a blanc, all in ia et les robots.
du rêve du rêve encore du rêve. C’est tellement 2008;

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

@DR__Bourse J’ai souvent pensé que Tesla pouvait avoir de l’appetence pour le nickel. Après faut arriver a gérer et rentabiliser un projet industriel en Nouvelle Calédonie...

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

@NCheron_bourse La zone fait sens, mais reste le risque des lunettes connectées Apple.
Quand apple organisera t’il la keynote? Qui sera choisi pour fournir les verres,?Hoya🇯🇵 ( seul concurrent mondial d’essilor ) ou un chinois / taiwanais qui pourra en profiter pour monter en gamme?

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

@AlainPitous Des infos de @EnglishFars reportent que l'accord porté par l’iran la semaine dernière ( et que Trump avait modifié) aurait finalement été accepté par Trump tel quel. CQFD ceci devrait entraîner une issue positive.

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🇺🇸 Hyperscalers could soon be reinvesting almost 100% of their operating cash flow into capex !

➡️ The comparison with telecoms in the early 2000s is interesting because back then, operators invested heavily in infrastructure, anticipating an explosion in demand. The technological thesis was right but many companies invested too fast, too expensively, with monetization arriving too slowly. Today, hyperscalers are obviously much stronger but the underlying risk is still similar which is a risk of poor return on invested capital.

⚠️ In the short term, this chart remains very bullish for the entire infrastructure chain but the higher capex goes, the more demanding the market will become. Therefore, you should ask yourself who will actually capture the profits from this transformation, because between those selling the picks and shovels, those building the infrastructure, those paying for the capex and those monetizing the end-use cases, the returns will not be the same.

AI can be a real revolution but if it absorbs all the cash flow without quickly generating enough revenue, then a technological revolution can also become a financial problem.

https://t.co/WfexqnT7s2

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

@BelfortSalah L’iran n’a aucun impact sur elle

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

@NCheron_bourse Merci Nicolas. Les pubs massives reçues pour cette IPO sont aussi en complément pour moi un indicateur. ( de méfiance)

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

$SPX Update. Meh.

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

@KarenPeloille J'ai lu vos livres; j'appréciais beaucoup vos tweets . Je n'ai pas compris votre focus quasi exclusif sur le bitcoin.( qui ne correspond pas à mon horizon d'investissement) c'est vraiment dommage.

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

@laurentalbie Aah le murphy la base c’est super plaisant a lire en plus.

[S i N C E 93 @since93FR]

@ABaradez Non mais les baisse de taux... quand est-ce que ce marché va arrêter le mode espoir?
Inflation en hausse
Marché du travail en hausse
Il n’y aura pas de baisse de taux et tant pis si Donald en fera une jaunisse et se roulera par terre. Sinon le 10 ans US il passera a 5% aussi sec.