Juan Leon

Senior Investment Strategist @Bitwise | Not Financial Advice

[Juan Leon @singularity7x]

7/ Fed Rate Odds

Fed rate hike odds retraced, with October odds falling from 54% to 35% and December odds falling from 82% to 60%.

[Juan Leon @singularity7x]

1/ Crypto Market Monitor

Asset Performance: Bitcoin and gold fell in tandem over the past week, while equities were positive. Hyperliquid continues to buck the trend and rally, while Ethereum remains a laggard.

[Juan Leon @singularity7x]

6/ Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical risk continues to fall. The U.S. and Iran have drafted a tentative 60-day ceasefire extension and framework for renewed nuclear talks, but the agreement awaits Trump's sign-off.

Despite this, the ceasefire remains highly volatile, with both sides trading recent airstrikes and accusing each other of violating the agreement.

[Camran Khosravi @CamKhosravi]

1/ 📊Hyperliquid by the numbers:

- $5.5B TVL on the platform, now top 10 across all chains
- $6.5B of USDC sitting on it
- 14% of Binance's perp volume
- #5 in all of DeFi by fees
- 75 apps live on HyperEVM
- $2.5B in open trades on stocks, oil, and gold

Walking through each 🧵

[Juan Leon @singularity7x]

@sarthakcore Keep building sir! 🫡

[Juan Leon @singularity7x]

1/ Yesterday a16z led a $250M Series C into Exa Labs at a $2.2B valuation.

AI agents will search the web more than humans this year.

Exa builds search infrastructure for AI agents — not humans.

This is where the smart money's bet on AI infrastructure is heading.

[Juan Leon @singularity7x]

6/ What to watch:

- Exa's 400K+ developer base building AI-native search

- Render and Bittensor revenue trajectories as proxy for decentralized compute demand

In the next few years the number of searches from LLMs will be 1000x more than Google searches today.

The world is getting a redesign on how it gets information.

[Juan Leon @singularity7x]

5/ For allocators already overweight companies like NVDA and MSFT the question isn't whether AI grows.

It's whether you're overexposed to the mega caps, while underexposed to the programmable infrastructure layer that AI agents actually transact on.

Different risk. Different upside.

[Hunter Horsley @HHorsley]

There's a new class in crypto: the revenue chains.

The leaders are Hyperliquid & Solana.

Both do some overlapping things, and some different things. Both have exceptional communities, usage, use cases, etc.

I think that both will rise together, just as iOS and Android both rode the structural adoption of mobile.

In the case of the revenue chains, they are riding the wave of capital markets coming onchain.

Right place, right time for both. If you are rooting for HYPE or SOL or both, success will be less about the competition between the two (healthy ofc), but rather the rise of onchain capital markets.

Root for capital markets coming onchain.

Love seeing crypto succeed —

[Bitwise @Bitwise]

We’re thrilled to share that @NitrogenWealth, an AI-powered suite of products for financial advisors, is rolling out Bitwise model portfolios to its clients.

Nitrogen combines agentic AI with risk alignment, investment research, income planning, and tax intelligence. Model portfolios give Nitrogen’s advisors an additional framework to give their clients exposure to crypto.

We recently launched Bitwise Model Portfolios to help advisors build crypto sleeves thoughtfully and efficiently. The models feature a series of crypto-themed ETFs leveraging Bitwise research—offering everything from broad-based exposure to the space to more specific exposure to key themes.

We’re excited to partner with Nitrogen to help their clients access one of the world’s most exciting asset classes in a seamless way.

Let’s go!

[Bitwise @Bitwise]

"For much of the past decade, many of crypto’s innovative projects wore a costume: tokens that didn’t accrue value. Foundations that didn’t own anything. Builders that danced around the SEC. The Atkins-era SEC has put an end to the masquerade: Projects can now look like the decentralized business operations they actually are.

Hyperliquid is the first big project that took the permission and ran with it. The product covers every asset class. The tokens capture real value. The revenue is real and the buyback is mechanical...it’s an early, credible look at what crypto becomes when it’s allowed to grow up."

- @Matt_Hougan, "Hyperliquid Is What You Get When Crypto Is Allowed To Grow Up"

[Bitwise @Bitwise]

[reformats y-axis]

[Matt Hougan @Matt_Hougan]

Hyperliquid is not a crypto app. It's a super app.

It's not targeting the $3 trillion crypto economy. It's targeting the $600 trillion global asset market.

Investors are valuing it as one thing. It's the other.