Singularity Research

Everything AI and Data Center

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@CKCapitalxx Green. Because the great Iran from Friday evening to Sunday morning every week would have ended

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@hiteshkar So my prompt - "Please recreate the https://t.co/s4tvzZrzHQ. Make no mistakes" - actually got your developer fired ? :P

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

Latest monthly AI bills:

1) Claude $100
2) Grokbot $30
3) Muse $20
4) ChatGPT $20
5) Servers $10
5) Openrouter ~$5

Net spend $185 a month

Is it worth it?

100%

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@hiteshkar I use https://t.co/s4tvzZrzHQ AI chat for all my critical workloads and save my AI cost :P

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

Everything that happened in the data center world today (Oct 25, 2026)

Quiet weekend, loud setup. Nvidia is backstopping $36B of neocloud deals, most voters don't want a data center nearby, and the biggest spenders all report this week.

FINANCING + NEOCLOUDS
- Nvidia carries $36B of off-balance-sheet backstops for neoclouds, plus a guarantee of up to $105B for OpenAI's proposed 10GW Ohio site, per its July filing. It mostly pays only if a borrower defaults. Stock is -7.6% in October, three down weeks in a row (CNBC)

BUILDS
- Firebird got a US export license for 45,000 Nvidia Grace Blackwell GPUs for Kazakhstan. Phase one: ~$5B, up to 109MW, live Q3 2027. Phase two could take it to ~500MW. Announced during Huang's Astana visit (Firebird)
- Oman: a Mubbadrah-led group plans a $3B, up to 400MW AI campus plus 400MW of solar with batteries. Crusoe has shown interest as tenant, nothing signed yet (Muscat Daily)
- Krolmap plans a EUR1.5B, 225MW off-grid campus in Zaragoza, Spain, on renewables, batteries and cogeneration instead of a grid hookup. Planning stage only (DCD)
- STTGDC will host up to 9,000 GPUs for Indian neocloud Neysa at Noida 2, live around Q1 2027 (DCD)

BACKLASH
- New CNBC survey: 63% of voters oppose an AI data center within 10 miles of home, 13% support. Among MAGA voters it's 40% against, 29% for. 52% want advanced AI paused until Congress regulates it (CNBC)

PARTS
- Follow-up: Samsung Electro-Mechanics MLCC lead times now run 61 weeks, vs 52 reported earlier this month. Shortages are spreading to auto and industrial parts, and buyers are locking in 2027 supply (DigiTimes)

MEMORY
- SK hynix reports Wednesday, Samsung Thursday. Combined Q3 operating profit is seen around 185T won (~$139B), with Samsung already guiding 107.4T. HBM4 supply for Vera Rubin is the key check (Yonhap)
- Follow-up: KOSPI fell 2.08% on the week, KOSDAQ 5.42%. Both buybacks are done: Samsung's 15T won on Oct 6, SK hynix's 40T won Wednesday. NH sees 30T won+ of room for new SK hynix returns. Analysts call a new buyback the swing factor (Herald Business)
- Follow-up: Bernstein says price hikes in new HBM contracts aren't fully in the export data yet, so they should show up in both makers' sales later (Metro Seoul)

WEEK AHEAD
- Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday, Amazon Thursday, plus Intel and Sandisk. Hyperscaler capex is expected around $800B this year. Fed decides Wednesday: futures price under 10% odds of a hike, ~80% for December (Reuters)
- The Street wants revenue growth of ~25% at Alphabet, 16.8% at Microsoft, 20.5% at Intel. Caterpillar reports Thursday, BofA notes worries over "peak backlog, higher rates" and power gear risk (CNBC)
- Vertiv and GE Vernova report Wednesday before the open. Consensus: Vertiv $1.82 EPS on $3.75B, GE Vernova $3.99 on $11.99B (MarketBeat)

What it all means: Nothing broke this weekend, but the bill got clearer. Nvidia isn't just selling chips anymore, it's guaranteeing the buyers, right as neocloud stocks drop 30%+. And the public is turning: nearly two-thirds of voters don't want a data center nearby. Demand still looks fine. Kazakhstan, Oman, Spain and India keep announcing capacity, and MLCC lead times are past a year. My read: this week is the whole ballgame. If Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon hold capex and SK hynix brings a fat buyback, October looks like positioning. Any trim and Nvidia's backstops become the story.

$NVDA $CRWV $NBIS $IREN $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN $INTC $SKHY $SSNLF $VRT $GEV $CAT

Follow @SingularityRes for the full data center roundup every morning.

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@Fletche33881557 I can do a lot of long range task. Very efficient for token.

Like i Have put things around to remind me on 21 Oct 2027

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@atelicinvest Just did that on the root machine. Now what? Will i get promotion at my job?

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@PhotonCap You mean you also like nasdaqistan testing our patience

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@vinninglife AI will do all software, cyber risk, drones, surveillance etc.

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

People have been criticizing Dario and Anthropic for fear mongering and everything he has said is coming out to be true.

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

Find someone who looks at you just like Jenson looks at Nebius CEO $NBIS

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@pequityresearch @AurelionRsch We did an internal analysis that using AWS for our workloads was 3X more expensive than using out of the box machines

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@LogicalThesis You mean to say AI maxxing is spending more on AI and not using more token ??

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@dolores_capital @1769_alex Stay flat too

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

Everything that happened in the data center world today (Oct 24, 2026)

TikTok wants gigawatts. Bloom beat and raised, then fell 11%. Buyers still want compute. Investors just won't pay for cash burn.

FINANCING + NEOCLOUDS
- Follow-up: Nvidia and Oracle default swaps hit records this week, ~126bp and ~343bp. Meta's topped 124bp, and it now flags ~$825B of future leases and contracts, $450B+ non-cancellable. CoreWeave's swaps passed 11% (CNBC)
- Gartner predicts 80% of neoclouds will shut down or get absorbed by 2030. CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN are each down well over 30% in October (CNBC)
- Short seller DF Research says Csquare's stock is worth $0, citing debt-heavy ABS funding and returns below its cost of capital. Shares fell 12%. Its 2025 capex was $545M vs $172M of operating cash (Yahoo Finance)
- TikTok US is shopping for multiple gigawatts of compute. One source says ~4GW by the early 2030s. TikTok says Oracle stays its primary cloud (CNBC)

BUILDS
- Meta says phase one of its Ohio Prometheus campus is live with hundreds of thousands of GPUs and already trained Muse. Plan is ~1M GPUs at full scale, Vera Rubin "arriving soon" (DCD, Meta)
- Umatilla, Oregon declared a state of emergency over the governor's data center permit pause, which runs to July 2027. It says $5B+ of local investment could slip (DCD)
- SpaceXAI faces up to ~$6.1M in Mississippi penalties for starting work at three data center sites before stormwater permit coverage, per an SEC filing (DCD)

POWER
- Follow-up: Bloom closed -11.2% Friday as investors focused on -$181M of quarterly free cash flow, not the beat-and-raise (Motley Fool, CNBC)
- Rystad sees fuel cell spend for data centers hitting ~$30B by 2030 from $2.8B in 2025. ~40% of planned 2030 US capacity could go on-site, as grid hookups take 3-6 years (Reuters)
- Brent settled at $116.72, its highest since April, after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia. S&P energy stocks hit a record (Reuters)

CHIPS
- TrendForce sees server CPU shipments +31% in 2026 and 40%+ in 2027 as AI agents shift CPU-to-GPU ratios from 1:8 toward 1:2. Arm hits ~30% share in 2027, Intel supply stays tight (TrendForce)

MEMORY
- Bernstein estimates Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue at $8.7B, up 33%, passing SK hynix at $7.6B. Built from export data, not company numbers. Both report next week (East Asia Brief)
- Follow-up: With Solidigm shelved, Hana expects SK hynix to unveil 30T won+ (~$21B) of extra shareholder returns with Q3 results Oct 28 (Seoul Economic Daily)

PACKAGING + PARTS
- Besi Q3 orders: EUR342.6M, +96%, vs ~EUR298M expected. Hybrid bonding orders this year already double 2025's. CEO says ASML isn't a hybrid bonding rival. Q4 sales guided flat (Reuters, Besi)
- Mitsubishi Materials will lift output of thermistors for optical transceivers ~6x vs 2025, to ~12M a month by Nov 2027, citing AI data center traffic (Mitsubishi Materials, Nikkei)

MARKETS
- Friday: chip index +0.4% after Thursday's -6.7%. Micron +2.5%, AMD +1.7%, Intel +1.7%, Nvidia -0.6%. Nasdaq -0.2%, Dow -1.2% on oil. Alphabet fell 6% on the week ahead of earnings (Reuters, CNBC, Financial News)

What it all means: Same story as yesterday, one notch louder. Demand isn't the problem. TikTok wants gigawatts, CPU and HBM forecasts keep rising, Besi's orders nearly doubled. The pain is in who pays: record default swaps, a $0 short call on Csquare, Bloom punished for burning cash. And $116 oil makes power and money pricier at the same time. My read: next week decides it. If Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon hold capex and SK hynix brings a big buyback, Friday's bounce can stick. A capex trim and the funding squeeze spreads.

$NVDA $ORCL $CRWV $NBIS $IREN $CSQR $BE $MU $AMD $INTC $SKHY $SSNLF $BESIY $GOOGL

Follow @SingularityRes for the full data center roundup every morning.

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

Claude gets nerfed

[Thariq @trq212]

@lydiahallie wait is it just me or is Opus 5.5 dumber

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@eriknewsha Does that mean you made $10 million in top line atleast as you would pay that much to the companies?

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@PythiaR You can sell me your shares then

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@AverageCouchInv Everything that can be hacked will get hacked, the only question is when?

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

The reason chamath has become anti bitcoin is AI and/or Quantum would be able to break bitcoin's cryptography

The smart things about chamath is he changes his mind based on new information. Never married to an idea.

[Alex 👽 @AlexesNakamoto]

What happened to Chamath?

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

@AverageCouchInv Probably everything. See what is happening in cybersecurity these days.