SinusChef

Investing in energy, raw materials and tech. Loves some cheap FCF in deferred sectors.

Skåning som infiltrerat hufvudstaden. Tyst men dömande.

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 If we have a weak mou before wc, I will add oil exposure at the probable dip in oil because of wishful thinking about what the mou will adress. If we do not have a weak mou, I will add oil exposure at the start of wc.

If we have proper deal I will ride out with current exposure.

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 I think the problem is that Trump only wants a ”good” deal and Iranian leverage goes up with time. My guess is that Iran can handle this longer than the US. The best Iranian play would therefore be to stall until World Cup since trump unlikely wants to restart bombing during wc

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 If there is no deal and no war at the start of WC, my guess is that we will have neither during wc and that would lead to a really dire situation during or after wc, in that case I believe the doomers will be right and demand destruction is the one and only solution.

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 have you found any good copper plays yet?

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@appmakarn @kricke242 Jag tror snarare att de enklaste användarna (fåmansbolag, hoppyverksamheter, föreningar) inom kort kommer kunna få mycket billigare lösningar vilket slår på fortnox omsättning. Sen kommer de lösningarna ta mer och mer avancerade kunder för varje år.

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@OilHeadlineNews This is literally one of the worst takes in a long while. ”It must open somehow because else it gets bad, let’s say June 1 for simplicity”. Solid logic

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 With all headlines about deals and peace, the SoH is still closed and tanker flows are disrupted. To avoid noise I only look at actual tanker flows thru SoH, every day it is closed makes the scenario of an eventually open straight even better. Holding tight in the storm

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 @Divergent7651 Any thoughts on the drag versus other cos from steppe? Do you see any problems with the company or big risks going forward?

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@AbcpokerBI Jag såg dina poster om yubico och gillade din take men tog ingen position. Väl analyserat och hoppas att du får utdelning på korrekt analys. Jag tror det finns en massa potential i trumps Hormuzhaveri så ligger istället tungt i relaterad energi och mining för tillfället.

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 However when oil prices spikes, if gold/silver/metals than sell off to finance oil/gas as we have seen before, that could be a perfect moment to switch from oil to mining stocks. The high oil price will cause inflation that surely will be handled by some form of q easing.

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 While prices off course eventuelly will go down, I expect them to be higher for longer than anticipated, and then drop down to a higher base price, maybe around 80-85usd where many producers make good fcf.

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 Me too. Cooper seems a bit harder to find than oil and gold, so let’s keep searching!

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 Do you have any favorite copper plays Henrik?

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@CRUDEOIL231 What’s your main copper plays?

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

Man bygger en egen tjänst för det var svaret. Därefter migrerar man depåer till Montrose från Nordnet pga kostnaden för belåning.

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

Om man vill aggregera flera depåer hos flera mäklare till en vy för portföljöversikt - vilken tjänst använder man då? #nordnet #montrose #avanza

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 I agree to this view but with the addition that the risks to those prices are extremely skewed to the upside. There are not many scenarios where brent is trading at sub 60 in 2027, but quite some possibilities that we are at 90+.

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 And any escalation will result in continued closing of SoH and Iran hitting energy infrastructure in the region. My variables of concern is now physical oil prices (still way above front future) and ship turnover in SoH. If they does not indicate change, the oil trade is a beauty

[SinusChef @sinuschaf]

@Henrik115 Even though the portfolio took a hit yesterday (-5%) with Brent going -15%, I think we are in a much stronger position today. It seems like the TACO won’t be accepted by Iran and that Trump is out of easy options. Either Iran governs SoH or Trump needs to escalate again…