Pawan | Data-Driven Investing

Founder @ | Tech @ AMAZON | Decoding market valuations using data - not predictions | Insights on market, mutual funds & investing

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

I try to answer three questions investors constantly face:

• Is the market valuation attractive or expensive ?
• What global and domestic factors can impact returns?
• Where are the opportunities emerging across sectors and stocks?

I share my research, investing thoughts and frameworks to make sense of market noise.

Created https://t.co/qmPnjpy8tw : A data-driven framework to understand market valuations and find opportunities

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

I will still be cautious, AI bubble might burst but that might be due to it’s own valuations running much farther ahead of real earnings.

That won’t translate into IT stocks to benefit directly.
IT stocks valuations will be more driven by overestimation of AI impact on them. That realisation can come much before the AI bubble burst.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@Asset_Architect Adding little more insight

For more details - https://t.co/dXSHqZ8i7J

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@quantpravah Adding little more insight. Global indicators impacting FII flows.

For more details - https://t.co/dXSHqZ8i7J

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

I agree on the AUM and RBI restriction points.

But the US-stock angle feels a bit too simplistic. The real question is whether the fund's current portfolio and strategy can still generate alpha at today's AUM and valuations.

Comparing a long-term equity fund with FDs over a short period doesn't really answer that.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

FII flows seem to be coming in sync with global indicators

[Prousper with Anjan 📈 @Prouspering]

𝗚𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 🌞

FIIs DIIs cash market activity for the week

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@Prouspering Adding more insights to this.

How the global indicators that actually impact the FII flows in India look like.

For more details - https://t.co/dXSHqZ8i7J

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@ChanderBhatia01 The biggest problem is government first waits for housing societies to be completed and population to grow in the area and only post that tries to develop the infra.

The retro fitted infra can never be as good as something built in advance from scratch.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@Vivek_Investor Given the amount of research needed for micro cap investing, I strongly recommend going with mutual funds for this for any normal retail investor.

The fees is worth it at least for micro and small cap segment.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@stockifiabhijit The crowd tells you where to look

But Valuation and earnings tell you what to do

This is reacting vs investing.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@RigatoResearch Unpredictable

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

Why own dividend stocks when growth stocks can generate much higher returns?

Because investing isn't just about maximizing returns.

It's about making it easier to stay invested.

Think about it.
If your salary covers your monthly expenses and your portfolio generates a steady stream of dividends, you're far less likely to panic when markets fall.

You don't feel the need to:
→ Sell good businesses at the wrong time
→ Chase every market rally
→ Take unnecessary risks just to generate income

Growth stocks are still where long-term wealth is created.

But dividend stocks can give you something more valuable:

Patience and emotional control

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

Exactly.
A steady income gives investors the luxury of patience.

Add a portfolio of quality dividend stocks, and you create a small cash-flow engine that reduces the pressure to chase every market move.

The best decisions often come when you don't need the market to pay you today.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@Dutta_Souravd Possible, but "without a doubt" is where markets usually surprise investors.

Small caps can create exceptional returns, but valuations, earnings growth and liquidity still decide the outcome.

Confidence is useful, certainty is dangerous.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@KapoorShitij I'd add one more: exceptional traders have a repeatable process.

Resilience without an edge just means surviving losses longer.

Process + discipline is what compounds over time.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@trading_bn Crude may decide the macro direction, but earnings and valuations will likely decide how far Nifty moves.

A breakout is more meaningful if it's backed by improving fundamentals.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@darshitpatel84 This is why I rely on market breadth alongside index levels.

If 70–80% of stocks are correcting while the index is relatively stable, the index is telling only part of the story.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@stockifiabhijit True.
But psychology alone isn't enough.

You also need a process that tells you when fear or optimism is actually justified.

Otherwise, emotions just become another opinion.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

@TradingComposur The bigger question is how to decide if you are paying for the right coach.

Paying for the wrong one is just another trading loss.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

For most retail equity investors, there doesn't seem to be any major change to capital gains taxation.

The interesting part is that the measures are aimed at attracting foreign investment and supporting sectors like electronics manufacturing.

However, these changes can have meaningful impact on capital flows over the next few years.

[Pawan | Data-Driven Investing @SIPshiftindia]

Many investors track USD/INR.
Very few track USDX (DXY).
That's a mistake.

USD/INR ≠ USDX

- USD/INR tells you how many rupees one US dollar can buy.

- USDX (DXY) tells you how strong the US dollar is against the world's major currencies.

If your goal is to understand global capital flows, USDX is usually the more important indicator.

Why?

A rising USDX often means:
• Global money is moving towards US assets.
• Financial conditions are tightening.
• Emerging markets can see lower capital inflows.

Meanwhile, USD/INR is influenced by many India-specific factors like RBI intervention, crude oil prices, trade balance, and domestic demand for dollars.