SIPS PICKS

Engineer | Capper for @kiwiparlays | Daily Player Props & Insights 🧞

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WE ARE ON AN INSANE RUN 🔥

12-1 (92.3%) IN THE LAST 6 DAYS!

Cam Thomas UNDER 2.5 Assists ✅
Payton Pritchard OVER 17.5 Points ✅
Julian Strawther OVER 9.5 Points ✅
Jalen Johnson OVER 7.5 Assists ✅
John Collins OVER 0.5 Dunks ✅
VJ Edgecombe UNDER 4.5 Assists ✅
Kris Dunn OVER 4.5 Assists ✅
Mark Williams UNDER 11.5 Points ✅
Ausar Thompson UNDER 9.5 Points ✅
Dylan Harper UNDER 18.5 PRA ✅
Kevin Porter Jr. OVER 6.5 Assists ✅
Derik Queen UNDER 4.5 Assists ✅

Do not miss out on tomorrows plays! Tap the link in my bio and come cash out with us 🤑

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NBA TUESDAY FULL CARD 🏀:

FREE PREMIUM to someone who likes this tweet if we SWEEP 🧹

- Kevin Porter Jr. OVER 6.5 Assists
- Derik Queen UNDER 4.5 Assists

10-1 in our last 11 NBA bets, let’s make it 12-1 🔥🤑

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@FerTala90 Time left to play 🤞🤞🤞🤞

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⚾️ MLB THURSDAY PLAY #3:

1U - Phillies vs Pirates OVER 9.5 Total Runs

🚨 SCORING CONDITIONS 🚨

DROP A 💜 FOR THE NEXT PLAY!

This is a pure environment + bullpen + offense spot.

Citizens Bank Park is already a top-tier hitter’s park, with run factors above league average and strong home run amplification.

Now add extreme weather.

Games in Philly this week are being played in ~95–100°F heat with wind out, which directly increases carry and run production (lower air density → balls travel further).

That alone shifts baseline totals up.

Both offenses are capable:

- Phillies = top-tier power + OBP lineup
- Pirates = volatile but can produce in bunches

More importantly, this game is likely decided after the starters.

Both teams have:

- Recently used bullpens
- Inconsistent middle relief

That’s where overs get there.

You don’t need 10 runs through 5 innings —
you need late-game run leakage, and both pens are prone to it.

We’ve already seen the ceiling in this matchup:

- 11–9 game earlier this season (20 runs)

That shows what happens when:

- Bullpens enter
- Contact quality spikes
- Game state opens up

Key paths to 10:
- 4–3 game through 5 → bullpen pushes it over
- One crooked inning (3–4 runs)
- HR-friendly environment turning fly balls into runs

This isn’t a tight 4–3 type profile.

You’re stacking:

- Hitter-friendly park
- Extreme heat boost
- Two capable offenses
- Two unreliable bullpens

That combination pushes this into a double-digit run expectation environment.

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@robbyricch_ I'm in New Zealand so I'm using Betcha or TAB. Not sure what you'd have available sorry bro.

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⚾️ MLB THURSDAY PLAY #1:

1U - Jacob Misiorowski OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs

🚨 ELITE PITCHER PROFILE 🚨

DROP A 💜 FOR THE NEXT PLAY!

This is a straight workload and efficiency bet.

We need 6 innings. Misiorowski is averaging ~6.2 IP per start, so he’s already clearing this line at baseline.

The profile supports it:

~13 K/9 → ends innings without balls in play
Sub-1.00 WHIP → minimal traffic, low pitch counts
Walk rate down significantly → fewer self-inflicted long innings

That combination is exactly what produces consistent 6+ inning outings.

He’s not grinding through starts — he’s controlling them. High strikeouts plus low baserunners keeps his pitch count in check and allows him to get through two full trips of the lineup with room for the 6th.

Recent usage matters too. He’s being trusted deeper into games, not pulled early, which is critical for outs props.

There are really only a couple ways this loses:

Uncharacteristic walk spike BABIP variance leading to a long inning

Outside of that, his median outcome is right around 6 innings.

You’re backing a pitcher who:

- Already averages above the line
- Limits traffic
- Misses bats at an elite rate
- Has the leash to get through 6

18 outs is the expectation, not the stretch.

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@DDOGGSTACKS On this too! Let's go 🙌

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⚾️ MLB THURSDAY PLAY #2:

1U - Walbert Ureña OVER 4.5 Strikeouts

🚨 BACK HIM TODAY 🚨

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This is a volume + strikeout rate play.

Ureña has 69 Ks in 71.2 IP → that’s ~8.7 K/9 and roughly 4.6–5.0 Ks per start baseline depending on workload.

So the line is sitting right on his average — but the edge comes from how those Ks are distributed.

Recent form:

- 39 Ks in last 38.1 IP → ~9.2 K/9
- That’s an upward trend in swing-and-miss

He’s also consistently getting enough innings:

- Typically works 5–6 innings
- Has gone 5+ IP in every recent stretch with multiple 6-inning outings

That matters because:

- 5 IP at his rate ≈ 4–5 Ks
- 6 IP pushes him into 5–7 K range

There are multiple paths to 5:

- 5 Ks through 5 innings
- 4 Ks early + one in the 6th
- One high-K inning (2+) flips the line instantly

The underlying profile supports it:

- Strikeout-per-inning arm (~1 K/IP baseline)
- Generates Ks in bursts (not evenly distributed)
- Proven double-digit K upside in development (swing-and-miss stuff is real)

Only real risk:

- Walks inflating pitch count → early exit
- Efficiency issues limiting him to ~4 innings

But when he gets to even 5 innings, this line is essentially a coin flip at worst — and once he touches the 6th, it heavily favors the over.

You’re backing:

- A ~1 K/IP pitcher
- With stable 5–6 inning workload
- Trending up in strikeouts

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@PixFromTheSix Tailing 🙌

Let's go!

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@PixFromTheSix @WizBetz 😂😂😂

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BAAAAAAANG ✅✅

Thank you Mr. Marte

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⚾️ MLB TUESDAY PLAY #1:

1U - Ketel Marte OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🚨 HITTER PROFILE 🚨

DROP A 💜 FOR THE NEXT PLAY!

This is a bet on one of the hottest and most complete hitters in baseball continuing to do what he's done all season.

Ketel Marte has been one of Arizona's most productive offensive players, consistently reaching base while supplying both extra-base power and run production from the heart of the lineup.

The beauty of this prop is that we don't need multiple hits.

There are plenty of paths to cash:
• 2 hits
• Hit + run
• Hit + RBI
• Walk, score, and a hit
• Home run by itself

Marte's offensive profile gives us exposure to all of those outcomes.

He's hitting for both average and power, carrying an OPS well above league average while continuing to barrel baseballs at an elite rate. When he puts the ball in play, he's consistently producing quality contact instead of weak outs.

His plate discipline also raises the floor.

Marte rarely chases pitches outside the zone and consistently works himself into favorable counts. That allows him to get pitches he can drive rather than expanding early in at-bats.

The lineup around him only adds to the value.

Batting near several quality hitters means every time Marte reaches base he has legitimate opportunities to score, while runners on base ahead of him create consistent RBI chances.

Unlike a hits prop, HRR gives us multiple ways to win.

A player doesn't need to rack up three hits when one extra-base hit followed by a run can get us there just as easily.

That's exactly why Marte is such a strong candidate.

His combination of contact ability, gap power, home run upside, and premium lineup spot creates one of the safest offensive profiles for this market.

We only need him to contribute to two offensive events.

Given his ability to reach base consistently while producing runs and RBIs, this number feels attainable every time he steps into the box.

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⚾️ MLB TUESDAY PLAY #1:

1U - Ketel Marte OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🚨 HITTER PROFILE 🚨

DROP A 💜 FOR THE NEXT PLAY!

This is a bet on one of the hottest and most complete hitters in baseball continuing to do what he's done all season.

Ketel Marte has been one of Arizona's most productive offensive players, consistently reaching base while supplying both extra-base power and run production from the heart of the lineup.

The beauty of this prop is that we don't need multiple hits.

There are plenty of paths to cash:
• 2 hits
• Hit + run
• Hit + RBI
• Walk, score, and a hit
• Home run by itself

Marte's offensive profile gives us exposure to all of those outcomes.

He's hitting for both average and power, carrying an OPS well above league average while continuing to barrel baseballs at an elite rate. When he puts the ball in play, he's consistently producing quality contact instead of weak outs.

His plate discipline also raises the floor.

Marte rarely chases pitches outside the zone and consistently works himself into favorable counts. That allows him to get pitches he can drive rather than expanding early in at-bats.

The lineup around him only adds to the value.

Batting near several quality hitters means every time Marte reaches base he has legitimate opportunities to score, while runners on base ahead of him create consistent RBI chances.

Unlike a hits prop, HRR gives us multiple ways to win.

A player doesn't need to rack up three hits when one extra-base hit followed by a run can get us there just as easily.

That's exactly why Marte is such a strong candidate.

His combination of contact ability, gap power, home run upside, and premium lineup spot creates one of the safest offensive profiles for this market.

We only need him to contribute to two offensive events.

Given his ability to reach base consistently while producing runs and RBIs, this number feels attainable every time he steps into the box.

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⚾️ MLB TUESDAY PLAY #1:

1U - Ketel Marte OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🚨 HITTER PROFILE 🚨

DROP A 💜 FOR THE NEXT PLAY!

This is a bet on one of the hottest and most complete hitters in baseball continuing to do what he's done all season.

Ketel Marte has been one of Arizona's most productive offensive players, consistently reaching base while supplying both extra-base power and run production from the heart of the lineup.

The beauty of this prop is that we don't need multiple hits.

There are plenty of paths to cash:
• 2 hits
• Hit + run
• Hit + RBI
• Walk, score, and a hit
• Home run by itself

Marte's offensive profile gives us exposure to all of those outcomes.

He's hitting for both average and power, carrying an OPS well above league average while continuing to barrel baseballs at an elite rate. When he puts the ball in play, he's consistently producing quality contact instead of weak outs.

His plate discipline also raises the floor.

Marte rarely chases pitches outside the zone and consistently works himself into favorable counts. That allows him to get pitches he can drive rather than expanding early in at-bats.

The lineup around him only adds to the value.

Batting near several quality hitters means every time Marte reaches base he has legitimate opportunities to score, while runners on base ahead of him create consistent RBI chances.

Unlike a hits prop, HRR gives us multiple ways to win.

A player doesn't need to rack up three hits when one extra-base hit followed by a run can get us there just as easily.

That's exactly why Marte is such a strong candidate.

His combination of contact ability, gap power, home run upside, and premium lineup spot creates one of the safest offensive profiles for this market.

We only need him to contribute to two offensive events.

Given his ability to reach base consistently while producing runs and RBIs, this number feels attainable every time he steps into the box.

DROP A 💜 IF TAILING

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SLOW AND WORRISOME START BUT FREE NONETHELESS ✅✅

Thank you Mr. Ashcraft!

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⚾️ MLB MONDAY PLAY #1:

1.1U - Braxton Ashcraft OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs

🚨 WORKLOAD EDGE 🚨

DROP A 💜 FOR THE NEXT PLAY!

This is a bet on workload, efficiency, and one of the most consistent starters in baseball working deep into games.

Braxton Ashcraft has quietly developed into a true innings eater for Pittsburgh this season. Through 16 starts, he owns a 7-3 record with a 3.07 ERA across 96.2 innings, averaging just over 6.0 innings per start.

That workload is exactly what we want for this number.

To cash this ticket, Ashcraft simply needs to record 18 outs, or complete 6 full innings.

His season average already sits above that mark.

The underlying numbers explain why he's consistently pitching into the sixth and beyond.

• 1.09 WHIP
• 107 strikeouts in 96.2 innings
• Just 22 walks all season

A 1.09 WHIP means Ashcraft simply does not allow many free baserunners. Clean innings keep pitch counts manageable, allowing him to face hitters efficiently and remain in games longer.

His command has been outstanding.

Walking only 22 hitters through nearly 100 innings means he rarely beats himself. Instead of pitching from the stretch and escaping constant traffic, he's consistently working ahead in counts and generating quick innings.

The strikeout profile is another major reason to like this over.

With 107 strikeouts in 96.2 innings, Ashcraft is striking out more than a batter per inning. Swing-and-miss stuff eliminates balls in play, limits rallies, and allows him to finish innings without needing multiple defensive plays.

That combination of:
• Low WHIP
• Strong strikeout rate
• Excellent control

...is exactly the profile of a pitcher managers trust to work through six innings consistently.

The matchup is also favorable.

While Philadelphia has dangerous power throughout the lineup, they remain an aggressive offense that can expand the zone against quality strikeout pitchers. Ashcraft's ability to generate swings and misses gives him a path to efficient innings even against a talented lineup.

From a workload perspective, Pittsburgh has shown confidence in letting Ashcraft work deep when he's throwing well. With the Pirates opening a four-game series against the Phillies, there's little reason to expect an unusually quick hook if he's pitching to his normal standard.

To lose this bet, Ashcraft likely needs either:
• An unusually high pitch count early
• Significant traffic on the bases
• Or an early crooked inning

His season-long profile suggests those outcomes have been the exception rather than the rule.

We only need him to complete 6 innings.

Given his season averages, elite WHIP, strikeout ability, and consistent workload, this line appears slightly short.

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⚾️ MLB MONDAY PLAY #1:

1.1U - Braxton Ashcraft OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs

🚨 WORKLOAD EDGE 🚨

DROP A 💜 FOR THE NEXT PLAY!

This is a bet on workload, efficiency, and one of the most consistent starters in baseball working deep into games.

Braxton Ashcraft has quietly developed into a true innings eater for Pittsburgh this season. Through 16 starts, he owns a 7-3 record with a 3.07 ERA across 96.2 innings, averaging just over 6.0 innings per start.

That workload is exactly what we want for this number.

To cash this ticket, Ashcraft simply needs to record 18 outs, or complete 6 full innings.

His season average already sits above that mark.

The underlying numbers explain why he's consistently pitching into the sixth and beyond.

• 1.09 WHIP
• 107 strikeouts in 96.2 innings
• Just 22 walks all season

A 1.09 WHIP means Ashcraft simply does not allow many free baserunners. Clean innings keep pitch counts manageable, allowing him to face hitters efficiently and remain in games longer.

His command has been outstanding.

Walking only 22 hitters through nearly 100 innings means he rarely beats himself. Instead of pitching from the stretch and escaping constant traffic, he's consistently working ahead in counts and generating quick innings.

The strikeout profile is another major reason to like this over.

With 107 strikeouts in 96.2 innings, Ashcraft is striking out more than a batter per inning. Swing-and-miss stuff eliminates balls in play, limits rallies, and allows him to finish innings without needing multiple defensive plays.

That combination of:
• Low WHIP
• Strong strikeout rate
• Excellent control

...is exactly the profile of a pitcher managers trust to work through six innings consistently.

The matchup is also favorable.

While Philadelphia has dangerous power throughout the lineup, they remain an aggressive offense that can expand the zone against quality strikeout pitchers. Ashcraft's ability to generate swings and misses gives him a path to efficient innings even against a talented lineup.

From a workload perspective, Pittsburgh has shown confidence in letting Ashcraft work deep when he's throwing well. With the Pirates opening a four-game series against the Phillies, there's little reason to expect an unusually quick hook if he's pitching to his normal standard.

To lose this bet, Ashcraft likely needs either:
• An unusually high pitch count early
• Significant traffic on the bases
• Or an early crooked inning

His season-long profile suggests those outcomes have been the exception rather than the rule.

We only need him to complete 6 innings.

Given his season averages, elite WHIP, strikeout ability, and consistent workload, this line appears slightly short.

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⚾️ MLB MONDAY PLAY #1:

1.1U - Braxton Ashcraft OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs

🚨 WORKLOAD EDGE 🚨

DROP A 💜 FOR THE NEXT PLAY!

This is a bet on workload, efficiency, and one of the most consistent starters in baseball working deep into games.

Braxton Ashcraft has quietly developed into a true innings eater for Pittsburgh this season. Through 16 starts, he owns a 7-3 record with a 3.07 ERA across 96.2 innings, averaging just over 6.0 innings per start.

That workload is exactly what we want for this number.

To cash this ticket, Ashcraft simply needs to record 18 outs, or complete 6 full innings.

His season average already sits above that mark.

The underlying numbers explain why he's consistently pitching into the sixth and beyond.

• 1.09 WHIP
• 107 strikeouts in 96.2 innings
• Just 22 walks all season

A 1.09 WHIP means Ashcraft simply does not allow many free baserunners. Clean innings keep pitch counts manageable, allowing him to face hitters efficiently and remain in games longer.

His command has been outstanding.

Walking only 22 hitters through nearly 100 innings means he rarely beats himself. Instead of pitching from the stretch and escaping constant traffic, he's consistently working ahead in counts and generating quick innings.

The strikeout profile is another major reason to like this over.

With 107 strikeouts in 96.2 innings, Ashcraft is striking out more than a batter per inning. Swing-and-miss stuff eliminates balls in play, limits rallies, and allows him to finish innings without needing multiple defensive plays.

That combination of:
• Low WHIP
• Strong strikeout rate
• Excellent control

...is exactly the profile of a pitcher managers trust to work through six innings consistently.

The matchup is also favorable.

While Philadelphia has dangerous power throughout the lineup, they remain an aggressive offense that can expand the zone against quality strikeout pitchers. Ashcraft's ability to generate swings and misses gives him a path to efficient innings even against a talented lineup.

From a workload perspective, Pittsburgh has shown confidence in letting Ashcraft work deep when he's throwing well. With the Pirates opening a four-game series against the Phillies, there's little reason to expect an unusually quick hook if he's pitching to his normal standard.

To lose this bet, Ashcraft likely needs either:
• An unusually high pitch count early
• Significant traffic on the bases
• Or an early crooked inning

His season-long profile suggests those outcomes have been the exception rather than the rule.

We only need him to complete 6 innings.

Given his season averages, elite WHIP, strikeout ability, and consistent workload, this line appears slightly short.

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⚾️ MLB TUESDAY PLAY #1:

1.1U - Brayan Bello UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs

🚨 INEFFICIENCY PROFILE 🚨

DROP A 💜 FOR THE NEXT PLAY!

This is a pure fade on workload and efficiency, backed directly by Brayan Bello’s 2026 production.

Through his starts this season, Bello has thrown 25.2 innings across 6 outings, which comes out to just 4.3 innings per start. That translates to roughly 13 outs per game, well below this 15.5 line.

The underlying numbers explain why he is not working deep.

He is carrying a 2.26 WHIP, meaning he is allowing over two baserunners per inning. That level of traffic consistently drives pitch counts up early and prevents him from getting through innings cleanly.

On top of that, his command has been an issue:

• 11.3% walk rate
• 15 walks in 25.2 innings
Free baserunners extend innings and force him into high stress situations, which limits his ability to reach the 6 inning mark.

The strikeout profile does not bail him out either.

Bello is sitting on just a 12.8% strikeout rate, which is well below league average. That means he is not generating quick outs via strikeouts and is instead relying on balls in play, leading to longer at bats and more opportunities for hits to fall.

And the contact has been heavy:

• 43 hits allowed in 25.2 innings

That combination of hits plus walks is exactly what prevents pitchers from going deep into games.

From a workload standpoint, the trend is clear. Outside of one deeper outing, the majority of his starts have landed in the 3 to 5 inning range, which keeps him consistently under this number.

To clear this line, Bello needs to complete 6 full innings.

Based on his current averages:
• He is over a full inning short of that mark
• He is allowing elite level traffic via WHIP
• He is not missing enough bats to escape innings efficiently

Everything points toward a profile that struggles to generate length.

We only need him to stay under 16 outs to cash.

With his current form, command issues, and inability to work deep into games, this sets up as a strong probability spot for Bello to fall short of this number.

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@NateDFS15 I see you on him too, let's cash this 🤞

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⚾️ MLB THURSDAY PLAY #1:

1.15U - Seth Lugo OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs (-115, CZRs)

🚨 INNINGS EATER 🚨

DROP A 💜 FOR THE NEXT PLAY!

This is a workload and matchup alignment spot where everything points toward Lugo being asked to go deep into this game.

Kansas City comes into this one with clear bullpen concerns after being forced to cover heavy innings in their previous game. That matters because Lugo is one of the few arms on this staff capable of stabilizing things, and when that situation arises, his leash extends significantly.

We already saw that in his last outing where he reached 100 plus pitches. That is a strong indicator of trust and role. Pitch count is one of the most important factors for outs props, and Lugo has already shown he can push into the range needed to clear this number.

The matchup against the Chicago White Sox supports efficiency.

Against right handed pitching this season, the White Sox rank near the bottom of the league in overall offensive production, including wRC+. They also carry a low walk rate and a high strikeout rate, which creates a favorable combination for pitchers looking to work deeper into games.

A low walk rate is especially important here. Lugo ranks among the better pitchers in limiting free passes, and when you pair a strike throwing pitcher with a lineup that does not walk, innings tend to move quickly. Fewer baserunners means fewer stressful pitches and more chances to get through 6 innings.

There is also a strong approach mismatch.

The White Sox swing at a high rate both in and out of the zone, while Lugo throws a high percentage of his pitches in the zone with his primary mix. That leads to early contact and quicker outs, which is exactly what you want when targeting pitcher outs.

This is not a lineup that consistently drives pitch counts up. Instead, they put balls in play early in counts, which allows efficient pitchers to move through innings without needing excessive pitches.

From a historical standpoint, Lugo has already shown he can go deep against this type of opponent, and his current role suggests he will be relied on again here.

We only need 18 outs to cash.

With a stretched pitch count, a taxed bullpen behind him, and a matchup against an aggressive, low walk offense, this sets up as a strong probability spot for Lugo to reach 6 innings.

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🏀 NBA THURSDAY PLAY #1:

1.2U - Reed Sheppard OVER 15.5 Points + Assists (-120, HR)

🚨 BOUNCE BACK SPOT 🚨

DROP A 💜 FOR THE NEXT PLAY!

This is a pace, role, and efficiency driven bounce back spot for Reed Sheppard.

Through the 2026 season, Sheppard is averaging just over 16 points plus assists per game, which puts this line directly in line with his normal output. That is important because we are not asking for an outlier performance, just a return to his typical production.

He is coming off two lower scoring games, but his minutes and usage have remained stable. That suggests the dip is variance rather than a reduced role. Players with consistent opportunity tend to regress back toward their averages in these situations.

The matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers supports that. Over their recent stretch, they have allowed increased production to opposing guards, particularly in assists. They have also given up more scoring in spot up and transition situations, which aligns directly with Sheppard’s offensive profile.

A large portion of his scoring comes from spot up opportunities and transition play. These are both highly sensitive to pace, and Philadelphia has been playing at a top 10 pace over their recent games. More possessions leads to more shot attempts and more playmaking chances.

From a workload perspective, Sheppard’s production scales with minutes. When he plays around 20 minutes or more, his output typically moves into the high teens due to increased shot volume and secondary playmaking. He usually takes around 10 to 12 field goal attempts in these games and adds assists through ball movement and spacing.

This game projects to stay competitive, which supports full minutes and consistent usage. A close game environment increases the likelihood that he stays involved throughout all four quarters.

We only need 16 combined points and assists to cash.

With his season average sitting right at this number, a fast paced matchup, and a defensive profile that allows production in his key scoring areas, this sets up as a strong bounce back spot based on volume and opportunity.

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⛳️ MASTERS PLAY:

Brooks Koepka OVER 72.5 Strokes

DROP A 💜 FOR THE NEXT PLAY!

This is a course condition + profile mismatch play at The Masters Tournament, where the scoring environment matters just as much as the player.

A 72.5 line at Augusta National Golf Club effectively asks Koepka to shoot at or better than even par. On most courses, that’s reasonable for a player of his caliber, but Augusta, especially in Round 1 conditions, plays very differently.

The Masters committee is well known for setting up Thursday to be one of the more difficult scoring rounds of the week. Pin locations tend to be less accessible, forcing players to play away from flags and accept longer birdie looks. That immediately reduces birdie probability and increases reliance on scrambling.

That’s where this starts to lean over.

Koepka’s recent profile shows instability around the greens. His short game has been inconsistent, and that becomes a major issue at Augusta where missed greens don’t just lead to standard chips, they lead to extremely delicate recovery shots on fast, sloped surfaces.

With firm conditions expected, approach shots that are even slightly off line or distance won’t hold greens consistently. That leads to:

• More missed greens in regulation
• More difficult up-and-down attempts
• Increased bogey rate

Augusta doesn’t allow you to fake it around the greens. If your touch isn’t sharp, strokes leak quickly.

From a scoring distribution standpoint, even strong rounds here often sit in the 72–74 range depending on conditions. That’s important because we’re not fading Koepka’s ability, we’re fading the likelihood of a clean, mistake-free round in a difficult setup.

All it takes is:

• A couple missed approaches
• One failed up-and-down
• A three-putt on fast greens

And suddenly a round that felt steady turns into a 73 or 74.

Koepka’s scoring profile also leans more toward streaks rather than consistent accumulation. He can go low, but he can also give shots back quickly when the short game isn’t dialed in. That volatility works against him on a tight number like 72.5.

We only need a 73 or worse to cash.

With a firm course setup, difficult Round 1 pin positions, and a short game that hasn’t been sharp enough to handle Augusta’s demands, this sets up as a spot where even a “solid” round from Koepka could still land over this number.

A 73 here might not just cash, it could actually be a good score relative to the field.

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