@tulipking yes, and when they hold the market will fully realize hikes were never on the table.
hikes would also destroy the ai trade (higher cost to finance)
metals + crypto should rip
Fed will continue to talk hawkish like they have all year.
Then, once again, will not hike.
Market has been worried about hikes since Warsh was nominated.
0 hikes.
I mean... a 10k pfp collection by ACK should trade higher than Veefriends.
Probably closer to Squiggles.
StonkBrokers just ran to 50M mcap overnight on a brand new chain.
No idea why people are fading Argonauts.
9 - 10 ETH for top 10 rarity seems free.
@tulipking No but I think it will do very well.
I just enjoy owning the actual NFTs.
FWA will benefit from the gambling enjoyers.
NFTs will benefit from the NFT enjoyers.
Both intertwined in a flywheel w ETH price action being a driving force.
NFT Thesis:
Total NFT market cap is only $1.5B with Punks + Apes + Pudgies making up >50% of that.
There is a very persistent and healthy base of art collectors on ETH, see @CozomoMedici collecting and posting consistently for the past 4 years.
I think the ETH art scene explodes on Ethereum if ETH gets a decent run. It makes up < 50% of the $1.5B market cap, so the entire art market cap on Ethereum is easily sub $1B.
Compare this to the physical art market which does $60B in annual volume with an estimated $1.7T market cap (some estimates say $600B - $700B).
Onchain digital art has several advantages over physical:
- Built in lifetimes royalties (incentive for artists)
- ability to express motion/animation (see XCOPY and DeeKay)
- Less friction (shipping, insurance, payment settlement, etc)
- arguably better discovery and overall less competition than physical market (more incentive for artists)
- option to merge digital and physical presentation (see Tyler Hobbs, ACK, Sam Spratt)
Yesterday, @toadswiback did > 400 ETH in sales across 75 auctions with each piece selling at an avg price > 5 ETH demonstrating real demand for real art on Ethereum.
Meanwhile ETH itself is holding and bouncing off range lows against BTC.
NFTs crashed hard after the 2021-2022 run due to major dilution (tons of projects launching).
In 2024 NFTs had to compete with memecoins.
Now that memecoins have seen a full cycle and total memecoin market cap has been bleeding out for over a year as capital flees the same issues that riddled NFTs in 2022 (extractive scamming and dilution), there is less competition for speculative captial.
The only capital that remains in NFTs belongs to real collectors, with virtually no speculative capital in NFTs at the moment.
Outside of the art scene, Pudgies are seeing insane traction. Billions of views, merch/TCG in Target and other stores. Globally recognized brand built over the last few years while floor price has gone down.
So what/where should you buy? Buy what you like imo. If you have good taste you will probably make $.
Personally I like Fidenzas, Masks, Chromies, and Pudgies among other things.
If you like ACK and XCOPY then buy their work. If you like other artists, buy their work.
TLDR: Ethereum NFTs have 0 speculative capital, minimal dilution, and declining competition from memecoins and infra scams (new VC backed L2s).
If ETH pumps, a lot of speculative capital may choose NFTs that have managed to survive a 4 year bear market instead of memecoins and infra scams.
I mean... a 10k pfp collection by ACK should trade higher than Veefriends.
Probably closer to Squiggles.
StonkBrokers just ran to 50M mcap overnight on a brand new chain.
No idea why people are fading Argonauts.
9 - 10 ETH for top 10 rarity seems free.
There is absolutely zero reason people should be paying 100x the floor price for rares only hours after minting outโฆ
Unless they know something we donโt ?