sitandevaluate

"We want talented players who play hard and play for each other" -Jeff Weltman

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Quick🧵on why Weltman has the Magic set up for long term success and why the team doesn't go for all-in trades

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Worth a read:
https://t.co/HTQgKrauwu

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@DamienPetersNBA The players agreed to these parameters. The $100m gap is the supermax dollars that only go to the team that drafted the player - another contract term that the players agreed to

Basically that $100m is a bonus for really elite players. Duren is not that player and most aren’t

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@DamienPetersNBA On the other hand, why should Detroit pay $100m over the market rate? These max rookie extensions were designed for foundational players who teams want to keep for their entire career. That is Cade

Duren may have qualified for this contract but he isn’t worth the full amount

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@Savageboston @SIChrisMannix

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@Savageboston @SIChrisMannix This is bogus

Phantom team “we were willing to make a good offer even though our initial offer was garbage. I promise we would have given BOS a real offer if they’d negotiated harder”

Sure, Jan

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@jj4t12win10 @NBA No thanks

Non-bust drafted players shouldn’t expect to get max extensions. I’m a huge Franz guy but even he hasn’t earned his contract. Of those 3 OKC guys Love mentioned, only Shai has

There is no more “fun max” and that’s a good thing.

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@_FaceValue_ @RafHenry2 @The407Podcast_ Maybe I misunderstood you. I thought you were saying Franz is in the same boat as Paolo because he’s a max player. I was replying that Franz has more value than Paolo because he does more things as a player

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@_FaceValue_ @RafHenry2 @The407Podcast_ Franz is a much more valuable player than Paolo

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@JamesSurowiecki @TheAthletic The finances referenced relates to the apron taxes. Brown’s salary affected roster flexibility

Simply put, the Celts could not contend with Tatum, Brown, and a bunch of mid level salaried players

Don’t forget that duo won a title with many other high-salaried players

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@oneshoemagoo Sadly, the clock has run out on getting value for Paolo once next season starts. Paolo is either going to become a better player or he will be another negative contract player who won’t bring much in return

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Yup

[Midwest Hook @MidwestHook]

The 161st highest paid player in the NBA gets paid $10mil/year.

The top 44 guys in the NBA are getting $40+mil/year.

This is all very transparent.

Kuzma is at the end of a 4 year $90mil contract that he hasn’t lived up to, and he knows that pay cut is coming.

[sitandevaluate @sitandevaluate]

Exactly

[Ku 🦉 @KuKhahil]

Im begging the NBA media to stop with this discourse.

He makes 60 million dollars, is a really good scorer but not quite at the level of the top scorers in the league, he turns the ball over a ton, and is not a + passer.

If he was on a 45 mill contract, his market woulda been stronger. Can we plz be normal

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@ReggiSaxx They needed to dump Grant. Ja is a reclamation project that Portland can spin off if he shows he still has value

This is really about the 3 years left on Brown’s contract and his stated desire to extend off of that

[sitandevaluate @sitandevaluate]

Amen

[Pranav Sriraman @PranavSriraman]

He’s not a bad player. Everyone’s favorite catch all metrics don’t view him as such. He’s just a bad asset. Paying him like a top 5 player + he’s due for an extension that pays him ≈ $71M annually is bad business. For similar reasons I’m completely good off Devin Booker.

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@AndrewDBailey It’s not the player alone. It is the player, his current contract, and the player’s expectation about a future extension

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@Fullcourtpass @kirkgoldsberry @sixers_galaxy And that’s what they did in their trade for JB. JB was a salary dump. The picks were for taking George and his contract

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@MichaelVPina Let’s be honest. It isn’t whether JB is good. It is that he isn’t worth $65m per season (last year of his deal) especially since he wants an extension tacked on to that

He’s a $30-$40m player in today’s NBA

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@NFLFrascella Quit carrying water for agents. The NFL dumps guys all the time when their contract make no sense financially

The NBA has been held hostage by outsized/non-market contracts. This is the correction happening in real time

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Paolo needs to read this tweet. He’s next in he doesn’t make a massive leap in offensive efficiency

No more Mose to blame. He now has an elite development coach running his team

Excuses are over

[databallr @databallr]

Here's my explanation of why Jaylen Brown's offensive analytics are underwhelming:

Jaylen Brown is a great scorer.

But “great scorer” and “offensive engine” are not the same thing.

An offensive engine creates impact in 3 distinct ways:

1. Score efficiently on big volume
2. Reduce team turnovers while carrying huge usage
3. Create better shots for teammates

That is what people mean by offensive impact.

Not just: did you score points?
Not just: did you get assists?

Did the team score points more efficiently because you were on the floor?

Jaylen is interesting because he had a good scoring season. I estimate his scoring impact last year around +2, the best mark of his career.

But if we are asking whether he is an elite offensive engine, the bar is much higher.

Let's start with scoring efficiency.

Jaylen took around 36 shots per 100 possessions at 57.5% TS last season. ("shots" includes freethrow possessions).

At that volume, TS% (True Shooting Percentage) has enormous leverage. Every 1% of TS% is worth roughly +0.6 points per 100 possessions on the scoreboard.

So the gap between 57.5 TS% and 62 TS% is not cosmetic. It matters. That is roughly +2.5 points of offensive impact. Scoring at 62% TS would move him from a top 50 per possession analytics season to a top 20 one last year.

But right now, among high-usage offensive stars, the efficiency gap is clear.

Shai: 67.0 TS%
Giannis: 65.9%
Curry: 64.8%
Kawhi: 63.3%
Luka: 61.8%
Mitchell: 61.7%
Brunson: 59%

Jaylen: 57.5 TS%

Jaylen’s scoring still has value because the volume is massive, but he's not generating the impact that some of these other guys do from scoring.

The second path is turnover value.

This part is underrated. If you are using a huge number of your team's possessions, how often you turn the ball over before you shoot matters on the scoreboard.

Historically, a lot of high-volume creators give their teams a significant advantage in the turnover game. Jordan, Kobe, Iverson, Lou Will, T-Mac, Melo, Shai, Kawhi, Brunson types. All of these guys have generated significant impact from reducing team turnovers and it's clear as day in the impact analytics.

They shoot a ton, and they also help the team avoid turnovers because the possession ends in a shot instead of a mistake more often than the league does.

Jaylen does not provide that kind of impact.

His box-score profile estimates his offensive turnover impact around neutral, historically, and last year. The 5-year lineup data, and the eyes, agree.

That does not mean he is killing the offense with turnovers.

It means he is not creating the turnover advantage that many true engines create.

Let's look at a stat called "Scoring Turnover Rate". It is defined as non-passing turnovers divided by scoring attempts. It's typically the ball handlers fault when he turns it over on something that isn't a pass.

Here are some high usage scorers around the league in Scoring Turnover Rate (Lower is better)

Jaylen Brown: 10.3%
Giannis: 10.5%
Paolo: 9%
Ant: 6.6%
Shai: 4.4%.
Kawhi: 5.5%.
Brunson: 4.1%
Mitchell: 5.3%
Tatum: 6.5% (2025)

Lower is better, and when the scoring volume is massive this accumulates to a meaningful amount of turnover differences between players which translates to offensive impact.

You see Brunson scored at 59% TS, a down year for him, but he turned the ball on handling related mistakes, per scoring attempt, at 4.1% vs Jaylen's 10.3%.

If you are on-ball enough to shoot over a third of your team’s shots, ball security gets magnified. The skill of getting to your shot without losing the possession is a big part of offensive value.

Top players can generate up to +2.5 points of offensive impact from reducing team turnovers.

Imagine if you could just imbue Jaylen Brown with Kawhi's handle. How much better would you feel about him having the ball in his hands even if he was shooting the same shots at the same efficiency. Instinctively, you know it matters, analytically it undeniably does. Having Kawhi's turnover economy alone would move him from a top 50 analytics season to a top 20 one last year.

(Passing turnovers matter too and he's average there but it's less meaningful to discuss because he's not passing the ball that much.)

The third path is playmaking.

Jaylen took 36 shots per 100 possessions and generates only 13 potential assists per 100 (shots, if they were made, that would be an assist for JB).

He shoots almost 3x as much he directly creates a potential assist. He's much more of a scorer than he is a passer.

Shai is at 34 shots to 18 potential assists which is lower than 2:1 ratio. So you see, even the best scorer in the league has a more balanced distribution of shots and potential assists.

Jaylen averages only around 2 rim assists per 100, which is low compared to the best playmakers, so he's not creating obvious value via lobs and easy layups.

A scoring heavy profile can be great if the scoring efficiency and turnover efficiency are overwhelming like it is for Kawhi or Shai, but neither are for Jaylen. That's the problem. Just one of the two being elite, or both being good, can be enough to get him to engine status. But he has neither. Perhaps he can still improve.

But if the scoring efficiency is low for the top stars, and the turnover value is around neutral, and the playmaking is limited, the elite-engine case falls apart. It just does.

You have other players like Cade and LaMelo who have similar scoring efficiency profiles to Jaylen, but those players are elite playmakers according to both the analytics and the public. Not only are they passing the ball a lot more, but they are generating a ton of assists to players at the rim, which are markers of elite playmaking.

The point is not that Jaylen Brown is bad.

He is a positive player who plays a lot of minutes.

The point is that his team impact has been very weak for a supermax offensive centerpiece because he has not proven himself to be a real offensive engine.

The question is whether he can become one in Philly. I think the Boston system was a pretty awesome environment to thrive. If Jaylen Brown was playing elsewhere and traded to Boston I would be bullish on his fit there. I just don't really see Maxey and Embiid as being the type of players that fit particularly well with him and increase his impact. Its certainly going to reduce his usage, which might be good. I'm not sure JB is in his optimal role as a ultra high usage player with his current handling.

I think Jaylen becoming more impactful offensively is mostly about his own skill development as a handler/3P shooter, and an improvement in shot selection. There's a lot of upside for him if he does that. Most people can't create the shots that Jaylen does. So that's the thing with Jaylen.

In any case, I'm excited to see how it plays out next year.

As for who won the trade?

I like it for Boston. They are fixing a potential long term salary cap issue and bringing in PG who can provide 2 way impact Boston. He's a much better 3 point shooter and defender. His durability and decline is the main issue.

Really I think Philly is rolling the dice on whether Jaylen Brown can improve. If he does it could turn out to be an excellent trade. If he's the same player here as he was in Boston, I don't think it's a good trade. The contract is massive and the synergy with Maxey/Embiid is questionable.