SI Weather Guy

Timely weather commentary from the SI Weather Guy. Tracking NYC/NJ-area winter storms since the early '90s. Originally from #statenisland.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

@parkndrive 👀

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

Broad 1-2 foot storm for area still looks on track.

Whether we approach all-time snow totals or not - most impressive part of this storm may be near hurricane-strength offshore low, which will likely lead to some impressive winds, extended blizzard conditions, other surprises.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

Watching the Americans go for hockey gold while we see if the American weather models can score blizzard gold... (or at least a medal?)

History in the making?

Exciting day. 🥇🏒❄️😉

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

As of now, not seeing any reason to think this won't be a 1-2 foot blizzard for most of area. And quite possibly trending toward the higher end of that range.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

Going with 12-18" as initial best guess for now.

Could be more, could be less, and could vary by location. That's not just for the sake of hedging, but because all those scenarios are still realistically in play - and that wouldn't always be the case.

More updates later.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

This will not have the arctic cold (and powder snow) of Jan 1996 - so different in that regard.

This seems to borrow characteristics of a March blizzard (i.e. 1888, 1993), Feb 1978, and Dec 2010. But a little bit in a league of its own perhaps.

Nothing if not interesting.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

In any case, there are still variables that would skew this between major and historic (and who would get jackpot either way) so need to keep watching for now.

"Historic blizzard" is in play, but as usual, nothing is guaranteed... yet.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

Or maybe it's Sherrill's Shellacking - because if there's one consistent idea on most of the American models, it's that the South Jersey shore could actually take peak pounding in terms of QPF/snowfall totals.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

If 2010 was the Bloomberg Blizzard - could this be the Mamdani Mauler?

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

If 2010 was the Bloomberg Blizzard - could this be the Mamdani Mauler?

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

Not gonna lie, this may have a chance to land in the top tier of all-time storms.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

1-2 feet looking more likely, but don't assume anything is a lock... yet.

FWIW - never mind the snow, this looks like a monster nor'easter (sub-970mb bomb?) with potential for significant wind & coastal impacts.

24 hrs to watch details.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

Was starting to catch some Post-Christmas 2010 vibes.

Now starting to catch some 1978, 1996 vibes too.

Stay tuned.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

Having trouble getting my head around this one, but...

Could be a banner-raising blockbuster, or could not be.

Can't always say that much - but as of now, that's still as much as I can say about Sun-Mon.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

@parkndrive Could be.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

Had the right general idea with this storm - about 6-8" of pure snow before mix & change to sleet, another couple inches of (mostly) sleet on top bringing totals to high end of 6-12" range across most of area.

Slight overperforming on that initial snow thump.

A good storm.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

That was a throwback 1994-style winter storm.

And this will be a 1994-style rest of the week with temps not getting back above freezing until at least February (and possibly flirting with some 1994-era record lows mid/late-week).

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

Sleet with temps in the teens isn't something you see every day either...

We're generally on target at 6-8" so far (some areas ticking higher?) - what's left is compromised by sleet, could still add accums but at slower rate (and compact existing snow) and vary some by locality.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

Powder snow coming down hard with temps in the low teens - you don't see it every day, so enjoy! ❄️

If it continues at these rates for a few more hours, might give us a shot at reaching higher end of range even before the sleet/ice threat emerges later today...

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

Powder snow coming down hard with temps in the low teens - you don't see it every day, so enjoy! ❄️

If it continues at these rates for a few more hours, might give us a shot at reaching higher end of range even before the sleet/ice threat emerges later today...

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

Categorically, this still looks like a 6-12" storm across the area.

If I had to hone in, I skew toward 6-8" with the balance a bit "up in the air" (somewhere between 700-800mb? 😉) re: extent of sleet and impacts on total accums.

Best final call for now.

[SI Weather Guy @siweatherguy]

As of now, thinking 6-8" snow might be more realistic, with an increasingly legit chance that some (or all?) of us end up seeing a lot of sleet in the mix... (which would hold down snow totals)

It snows hard for a while tomorrow regardless.