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More than 500 personnel of the State Emergency Service have been involved in dealing with the aftermath of Russia’s overnight attack on our cities and communities. The main strike was on Kyiv, where dozens of residential buildings and other purely civilian infrastructure were damaged again. Tragically, four people have been reported killed. My condolences to all their families and loved ones. At this moment, 38 people are in hospitals in the capital, and all of them are receiving the necessary care.
In Dnipro, a search and rescue operation is ongoing at the site of a four-story apartment building. Part of the building was essentially demolished. Nine people were killed in this attack, including a child. Thirty-five people were injured in the city. The fate of six more people remains unknown. The search for them will continue for as long as necessary.
The Russians also struck energy facilities in the Kharkiv region and critical infrastructure in Kharkiv. Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Khmelnytskyi regions also came under attack.
In total, overnight Russia launched 656 attack drones and 73 missiles of various types at our people – ballistic, cruise, and anti-ship missiles. A large-scale attack and an absolutely clear statement from Russia: if Ukraine is not protected from ballistic and other missile strikes, these attacks will continue. Europe needs its own anti-ballistic defense so that this war can finally be brought to an end. And assistance from the United States in supplying missiles for Patriot systems is absolutely necessary. We are counting on the support of our partners and on effective responses to today’s attack.
And I thank all Ukrainian men and women for not ignoring air raid alerts.
Glory to Ukraine!
I am the United States Secretary of the Treasury and I have discovered that petroleum is a linguistic product.
Yesterday I sat in the Cabinet Room in the chair third from the head — leather, oxblood, recently reupholstered because the previous Secretary left nail marks in the armrest during the debt ceiling — and I said the word "transitory." Brent crude dropped forty-three cents before I finished the sentence. I know this because the Bloomberg terminal the Secret Service makes me keep face-down during televised remarks was vibrating against the mahogany. I turned it over. Forty-three cents. The word hadn't even cooled in my mouth.
This is not metaphor. This is monetary policy.
The national average is $4.55 per gallon. It was $3.00 before we began what the interagency memo calls "Operation Renewed Horizon." That is a 52% increase. I was asked at the Cabinet meeting to comment on this figure and I said — on camera, into the microphone system we had upgraded specifically so my voice carries the lower register that focus groups associate with fiscal stability — that I was proud of our work keeping energy prices manageable.
Fifty-two percent. Manageable.
Here is what I have learned in four months at Treasury: a 52% increase described with confidence is not an increase. It is volatility. Volatility described with the right adverb is a correction. A correction described with a patriotic noun is sacrifice. Sacrifice described at a podium with the presidential seal is already in the past tense.
I told the American people oil will be lower than pre-conflict levels. I did not say when. I did not say which conflict. I did not specify whose pre-conflict levels. That is the elegance of forward guidance. At Key Square, we called this "providing the market with directionality." The market does not need to arrive. The market needs to believe someone knows the road.
The President told the room Iran was two weeks from a nuclear weapon.
Two weeks. The same two weeks we have been told about since 1992. The same two weeks that Bill Clinton cited. The same two weeks that Condoleezza Rice referenced on Meet the Press. The same two weeks Obama used to justify the original deal. The same two weeks Trump used to justify leaving the deal. The same two weeks that have now lasted thirty-four years without a single week elapsing. It is the most durable fortnight in the history of geopolitics. It has outlasted three of my marriages.
His own intelligence briefing — which I receive a redacted version of every Tuesday, bound in a leather folio embossed with my initials that I am not permitted to take home — says the weapons program has been functionally dormant since 2003. The actual breakout timeline, post-strikes, is nine to twelve months. But "nine to twelve months" does not fit inside a sentence that begins with "we had no choice." "Nine to twelve months" implies time to deliberate. Two weeks implies that the bomb was already ticking when we started the campaign and that we arrived precisely in time. Two weeks is a narrative product. I recognize it because I manufacture the same product every time I say "transitory."
The war has cost $25 billion in direct Pentagon expenditure. The supplemental request — which I will certify as "fiscally prudent" with a signature from the Mont Blanc pen my wife gave me when I was confirmed — is $200 billion. Lockheed Martin's fair value is $640 a share. Barclays raised their 2026 Brent forecast from $85 to $100. S&P Global raised their assumptions by $15 per barrel, and I will quote their reasoning exactly: "due to the ongoing effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz." The EIA revised their forecast from $78.84 to $96. Futures markets do not project $3 gas returning until 2032.
I know every one of these numbers. I said "transitory" anyway. I said it into a microphone. I said it while a deputy undersecretary named Claire — who had written me a one-page memo titled "Suggested Alternative Phrasing Given Yellen Precedent" — sat four chairs down and watched me say it and did not speak.
She will not speak again at Cabinet. We have a system for that. The system is called "not being invited to the next one."
Here is what nobody mentioned: the last person who used that word at a federal podium was Janet Yellen in 2021. It destroyed her public credibility for three fiscal years. She became a punchline on CNBC. She became a GIF. I used the same word yesterday, in the same building, about a larger crisis, and the Dow closed up 114 points. My phone lit up with texts from fund managers I used to compete against. Three of them used the word "masterful."
The difference is confidence.
The difference is that I said it in a $4,200 tie while seated next to a man who just described destroying a nation's entire navy as "creating the conditions for diplomacy."
The difference is that 60% of registered voters oppose this war according to the network that supports this administration most enthusiastically, and not one of those voters was within three security perimeters of the room where I said it.
The President said Iran is "negotiating on fumes." Their navy is "gone." Their air force is "gone." He said this the way a man describes finishing a renovation. Something was there. Now it is better. He has plans for the space.
I have built my entire career on this principle. At Soros Fund Management, we called it "reflexivity." At Key Square, we called it "positioning ahead of consensus." At Treasury, we call it "peace through strength." The families in Ohio paying $4.55 a gallon — up from $3.00, a difference of $1.55 per gallon, roughly $23 more per fill-up, roughly $1,200 more per year — they call it something else. But they were not consulted during the drafting of Operation Renewed Horizon. They were not in the leather chairs. They do not receive the Tuesday folio.
I will be on CNBC at 6:45 tomorrow morning. I will wear the grey suit, not the navy. Grey polls better for "reassurance" in the 35-54 demographic. I will say "transitory" for the third time this week. I will say "lower than pre-conflict levels" without specifying a date because a date is a commitment and a commitment is a falsifiable statement and a falsifiable statement is the only thing that has ever ended a Treasury Secretary's career.
The market will believe me because the market is me. I am the largest position in the room. I am the consensual hallucination with a government seal. I am the most recent sentence the economy has heard.
The price of oil is whatever I say it was always going to be.
Transitory.
Canadian Flotilla member loudly laughs while reminding her comrades she’s supposed to have a “fractured tailbone and sprained ankle”. Then she marches through the airport with no visible sign of discomfort that I can see. Frauds.
@alykatzz Stupidity. Do you really think the IDF comes home on weekends make the six products exported to the US? This isn't about "Israel." It's about antisemitism. Just who do you think works in those processing plants?
BREAKING: Masked Islamists in Montreal paraded a Jew being hanged through the streets.
Get every single one of these terrorists out of the West.
Enough of this.
@RadioFreeTom He's calling his friends so that they can place their Polymarket bets for early Monday morning. Maybe he's also calling his stock broker.
@moonie_lewis@jonsac@SJSK71216091@yvonneridley And the mother of my BFF in high school was there and 4 other camps before she was 17. She was liberated on a death march. Her testimony is on video at the Shoah Fdn. Then she killed herself, which was after years of waking up screaming at night.
@moonie_lewis@jonsac@SJSK71216091@yvonneridley My father was in the US Army Signal Corps and took photos of the liberation of that camp. I discovered them in a closet when I was about 10 or so. Horrendous. Most are at the Holocaust Museum in DC now.
I am the founder of a consultancy called Outcomes Language Architecture.
We have eleven employees and three hundred and nine institutional clients. I am holding a clicker with a faded university logo. The podium is the Marriott Charlotte double-ballroom kind. Beige. Three hundred chairs. The water glass has left a ring on my notes that I keep touching with my thumb.
Our work is straightforward. We help institutions align their language with their outcomes. Reduce friction between what is communicated and what is experienced. I have never said no to a client. That is the premise of the firm and the methodology both.
Slide four. "The Grammar of Yes."
Every institution eventually discovers that "no" is the most expensive word in its operational vocabulary. No generates appeals. No generates litigation. No generates congressional inquiry and headline and protest and screenshot. Each "no" is a liability event.
"Yes" generates none of these.
Our insight — and this is what we've built the practice around — is that affirmative language can be made outcome-aligned without requiring an outcome. The communication resolves. The situation may or may not.
Client 4717. Health insurance. Their communications contained the word "denied" 214,000 times per quarter. Each instance was a liability seed. The CEO called it a communication-clarity problem, and she was right. It was.
We performed a Clarity Audit.
Our recommendation: eliminate all negative-valence language from patient-facing systems. Not the decisions. The language around the decisions. Patients experience less confusion. Call volume drops. Everyone benefits.
We replaced "denied" with "approved pending additional documentation." We replaced "not covered" with "covered under alternative pathway." We replaced "claim rejected" with "claim received — review timeline extended."
The Positive Resolution Index moved from 31% to 94% in six weeks. Ninety-four percent of outbound communications now contained affirmative language. Patient confusion scores dropped by forty percent.
The follow-through rate on "approved pending" claims is 27%. This means 73% of patients receive the positive communication and require no further engagement. We call this temporal resolution. Most conditions have a natural timeline. We ensure the communication timeline aligns with it.
Mrs. Hendricks in Ohio received "approved pending additional documentation" for a cardiac catheterization in March. She submitted documentation in April. We requested clarification in May. Her file was marked "resolved — no further action" in June.
The system worked. She never called back.
I have never said no. Neither did we.
Slide nine. "The Protection Paradox." The insurance client's general counsel referred us to this engagement. Same architecture, larger vocabulary.
Federal agency. The problem was not operational. The problem was that the word "weaponization" was being applied to them in hearings. Externally. By legislators.
The solution is what I call semantic occupation. You take the accusation. You make it the name of the remedy.
The Anti-Weaponization Fund. $1.776 billion. The number was part of our deliverable. Numerological alignment with the client's base. These details matter.
The fund investigates and prevents the weaponization of federal agencies. It is administered by the agency being accused. The investigating body and the investigated body are the same body. We call this a closed resolution loop. The word is occupied. No one else can use it. You cannot accuse someone of the thing they are officially against. The language resolves.
I move to slide fourteen. My favorite. I can hear the clicker in the silence between slides.
"The Survival Notification." The Meta CHRO heard me speak in Austin last year. Called the following Monday.
They were eliminating 15% of their workforce. The operational challenge was not the 15%. The operational challenge was the 85% who remained. Post-event attrition was costing them a quarter of remaining staff within six months. Productivity collapse. Internal communications getting leaked.
We designed the Warm Notification.
At 4 AM, every remaining employee receives a message. "Your role has been confirmed. Your access remains active. No action is required."
Confirmed. This is affirmative language. The employee receives a yes. The yes does not describe a permanent state. It describes the current state. Today, right now, this second. Tomorrow requires a new confirmation, which may or may not come, and this ambiguity is not a threat. It is motivation.
Survivor productivity increased 23% in the two weeks following the event. No one posted about missing colleagues in internal channels. The confirmation can be unconfirmed. Everyone understood this without being told.
We measured the language. We aligned the outcomes. I have never said no.
I am on my final slide. "Next Practices." The ballroom is quiet in the way that means people are photographing the screen. A woman in the second row is holding her phone horizontally. Someone near the back has passed a business card forward.
Our next three engagements are in education, municipal courts, and pediatric care. The words are "graduated," "served," and "well-child visit."
We are aligning them now.
I look at three hundred people taking notes. I see three hundred institutions that will implement this by the end of the quarter. I have never said no to a client. I have never needed to. The word is not in our vocabulary.
It is not in anyone's.