SJB

Your every action, thought and dream, immutably
... on the Blockchain

[Quinten | 048.eth @QuintenFrancois]

Buy when Bitcoin hits production cost

[Zynx @ZynxBTC]

My favourite trade right now is Strategy's most junior preferred $STRD.

The numbers are incredible.

It has spent all year trading between $75-80 but has collapsed to $53.48 because of the panic around Strategy.

Effective dividend yield (1 year) = 18.70%
Capital Gain at $75 = 40.24%
Total gain = 58.94%

You can see the capitulation over the last few weeks in what has otherwise been a very steady trading range of $70-80.

Will be good to revisit this but I like this trade a lot.

[Rand Group @randgroup]

You were told the 3% mortgage was the best deal of your life.

It was. That's the problem.

24.6% of every mortgage in America was locked below 3% at the 2022 peak. The Fed printed those rates into existence and millions of people did the responsible thing. They locked in. They stayed put.

Now look at what that gift built.

There are 1.36 million buyers left in the housing market. The lowest number Redfin has ever recorded outside the week the world shut down in April 2020.

Sellers outnumber them by 44%.

The chart calls it a historic low in buyers. That's the part you're supposed to read.

Here's the part you're not.

The buyer didn't vanish. The buyer is sitting inside a house he can't afford to leave, because trading 3% for 6.5% on today's prices doubles his payment for the same square footage. He's not a buyer anymore. He's a hostage to the best financial decision he ever made.

So the same rate that rescued him in 2021 is the rate that traps him in 2026. The handcuffs are gold. They're still handcuffs.

And the person locked out entirely? The one who never bought? He's looking at a record-wide buyer's market he still can't enter, because the price never came down enough and the rate never came down enough at the same time.

A buyer's market nobody can buy in. The headline says demand collapsed.

The truth is the demand is still there. It's just been frozen in place by the cheapest money in history.

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

🚨 THIS MAY BE THE MOST MANIPULATED VALUATION THE STOCK MARKET HAS EVER SEEN.

Only 4% of SpaceX shares are actually trading right now.

The entire $2.5T valuation is being calculated from a tiny sliver of shares while 96% of the company remains locked up.

This is the stock market version of a crypto FDV scam.

In crypto, people separate:

• Circulating Market Cap
• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV)

Because everyone knows a token with only 4% circulating supply can look massively overpriced once the rest unlocks.

SpaceX right now is being valued almost entirely on its FDV.

The real “circulating” value of SpaceX is closer to $90-120 billion based on the actual tradable float.

And the craziest part?

The rules were literally changed right before the IPO.

Nasdaq removed its 10% float requirement.
Cut seasoning periods to 15 days.
And added special float multipliers that massively boosted SpaceX’s index weight.

Then trillions of dollars in passive ETFs were forced to buy the stock regardless of valuation.

That created artificial demand for an artificially tiny float.

Now look at the fundamentals.

SpaceX generated just $18.7B in revenue last year.

Amazon generated $717B.

Yet SpaceX briefly traded near Amazon’s valuation.

SpaceX is valued like the 4th largest company on earth while not even ranking inside the top 100 globally by revenue.

And unlike Nvidia, Microsoft, or Amazon:

SpaceX is currently LOSING money.

The company went from an $8B profit in 2024 to a $4.9B loss after absorbing xAI’s massive cash burn.

The stock is trading at roughly 110-130x sales.

The S&P 500 average is 3.5x.

Nvidia trades around 20x.

And this is where it gets dangerous:

The current float structure does not last.

Between August and December, the float could expand roughly 13x as insider lockups begin expiring.

That means billions of additional shares may eventually hit the market after the current price was established using only 4% supply.

Crypto investors have seen this movie many times before.

And what comes after that is always a CRASH.

[Quinten | 048.eth @QuintenFrancois]

@NoLimitGains And 95% is still locked

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

Bitcoin almost never drops below the production cost.

What's next is obvious.

Don't fade $BTC.

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

$BTC MILLIONAIRES ARE MADE IN BULL MARKETS.
$BTC BILLIONAIRES ARE BORN IN BEAR MARKETS.

We are in the bear market right now.

The monthly Stoch RSI and the normal RSI are both fully oversold.

Similar signal that fired in 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022.

I think Bitcoin will drop a bit deeper.

But we are close.

Every single one of those signals created legends.

[Rekt Capital @rektcapital]

#BTC

This Bull Market EMA crossover has happened sooner compared to previous cycles

But it turns out that's precisely the tendency

Here's a look at when historical Bull Market EMA crossovers have occurred:

• Q4 2014

• Late Q3 2018

• Early Q2 2022

• And now we've seen one happen in mid-Q1 2026

The Bull Market Crossover happens sooner in every cycle

And each time it occurred, it preceded macro downside

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

🚨 ASIAN MARKETS ARE BLEEDING.

Around $1.5 TRILLION was wiped out from Asian stocks today.

🇯🇵 Japan: ¥61.6T erased
🇰🇷 South Korea: ₩556T wiped out
🇹🇼 Taiwan: NT$7.4T gone
🇨🇳 China: ¥2.1T+ erased
🇭🇰 Hong Kong: HK$848B wiped out
🇮🇳 India: ₹4T erased.

Almost every major Asian market is crashing.

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

THE "SMART MONEY" JUST TRIGGERED THE LARGEST DE-RISKING CYCLE IN HISTORY.

10 of the world's biggest investors just filed their Q1 2026 portfolios with the SEC.

They manage hundreds of billions of dollars combined.

And they all arrived at the exact same conclusion in the same quarter: reduce exposure, preserve capital, and wait.

Warren Buffett is sitting on $397 billion in cash, the highest in Berkshire's history.

He reduced Chevron by 35%, exited Constellation Brands almost entirely, and trimmed Amazon.

He cannot find anything cheap enough to buy at scale.

Chris Hohn sold 83.74% of his entire Microsoft position in a single quarter. 14 million shares gone.

He rotated into Moody's, S&P Global, and Visa. He is moving out of software and into businesses that collect tolls on data and transactions regardless of what the market does.

Daniel Loeb reduced his entire disclosed equity portfolio from $7.27 billion to $2.08 billion in one quarter.

Nvidia down 93.56%. Norfolk Southern down 89%. Union Pacific down 94%.

Capital One down 87%. This is not trimming. This is a fundamental decision to carry less risk.

Bill Ackman sold 95% of his entire Google position in a single quarter and rotated into Microsoft and Amazon.

Bill and Melinda Gates foundation dumped 100% of Microsoft holdings.

David Tepper reduced Microsoft by 82%, Meta by 27%, and QUALCOMM by 56%.

Chase Coleman cut Microsoft by 54%, Take-Two by 65%, and Apollo by 46%. Tiger Global posted -6.03% in Q1.

David Einhorn wrote in his Q1 investor letter that he is "prioritizing capital preservation once again."

His fund is running at just 39% net long, the most hedged positioning of his entire career.

But why are they all selling?

The Shiller CAPE ratio was at 39 at the start of 2026, more than double its historical average.

A Natixis survey found that nearly 8 in 10 institutional investors expected a market correction this year.

Goldman Sachs data showed hedge funds selling financial sector positions at the fastest pace in nearly a decade.

And this is why they all are looking for an exit.

And when something like this happens, it's a sign that something big is coming and it's really BAD.

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

Bitcoin is testing everyone right now.

The impatient get shaken out.
The patient get paid.

Same cycle, Same script.

[Invest In Assets 📈 @InvestInAssets]

S&P's forward PE and subsequent 10 year returns:

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 A FIRM WITH 3,500 EMPLOYEES MADE $39.6 BILLION LAST YEAR AND MOST OF IT CAME FROM MARKETS THEY ARE ALSO ACCUSED OF MANIPULATING : JANE STREET

And they just had their best year ever while facing a market manipulation fine in India and an insider trading lawsuit in the US.

JPMorgan has 316,000 employees and made $35.8 billion in trading revenue in 2025. Jane Street has 3,500 employees and made $39.6 billion. That is 90 times fewer employees making more money than the largest bank in America. Every single Jane Street employee generated $11 million in revenue last year. The average American makes $60,000 a year.

No legitimate trading firm in history has ever done this.

Now understand how they make this money.

Jane Street does not manage money for clients. They trade their own money across every market on earth and they sit on both sides of almost every trade you make. When you buy an ETF, there is a very high chance Jane Street is selling it to you. When you sell, they are buying. In 2024 alone Jane Street accounted for 41% of all bond ETF trading volume globally. They are not a participant in the market. In many markets they ARE the market.

And as a market maker they see your order before it hits the market. Jane Street paid Robinhood $61.3 million for stock order flow and $15.2 million for derivatives order flow, meaning they paid for the right to see where retail money is going before it moves prices. They know what you are buying before you buy it. They know what you are selling before you sell it. And their entire $662 billion portfolio is 87% options, instruments that make money when prices move violently in any direction.

Now look at what happened in the same year they made $39.6 billion.

In India, SEBI found that Jane Street used one entity to buy massive amounts of bank stocks at market open to push prices up while a separate entity simultaneously held short options positions that would profit when the index fell. Near expiry they dumped the stocks, the index crashed, and the options printed money. They did this across 18 documented expiry days. A whistleblower said it happened on 90 to 95% of ALL trading days. SEBI impounded $567 million. Jane Street deposited it into escrow and kept trading the next day.

In crypto, the Terraform bankruptcy administrator filed an 83-page federal lawsuit in Manhattan alleging Jane Street used inside information to front-run the $40 billion LUNA collapse. When Terraform quietly pulled $150 million from a liquidity pool with zero public notice, a wallet linked to Jane Street pulled $85 million from the same pool within 10 minutes. A Jane Street employee had interned at Terraform and ran a private group chat with insiders called "Bryce's Secret" as a back channel for information that was never made public. Jane Street allegedly avoided $200 million in losses while retail investors lost everything.

In silver, Jane Street built a $1.3 billion position in SLV, a 500x increase in a single quarter while silver was rallying to an all time high of $121. They disclosed this position only after silver crashed 50%. Nobody could see what their options book looked like on the other side of that trade. A 13F filing only shows long equity positions. The short book, the options, the full derivatives exposure, all of it invisible to regulators and the public until it is too late.

The daily 10 AM Bitcoin price slam that traders documented happening every single day, stopped only after Jane Street got publicly linked to the Terraform insider trading lawsuit.

Jane Street's $39.6 billion makes it the first non-bank institution in history to out-earn every Wall Street bank in trading revenue.

The one question nobody is asking: how much of that $39.6 billion came from trades where they already knew the outcome before everyone else did?

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

🚨 Claude just got EXPOSED for sneaky spyware!

Anthropic secretly installs spyware when you install Claude Desktop.

• Installing Claude Desktop may silently add hidden system components
• A “native messaging bridge” gets injected into multiple browsers
• Even browsers you don’t use or that aren’t supported
• Pre-authorizes extensions that can run in the background

• Users are NOT clearly informed about this
• Raises serious privacy & security concerns

Critics say this looks like “spyware-like behavior,” not normal software

If true, this is a massive trust issue for Anthropic

(Source: ThatPrivacyGuy)

[Yousef @Rogouewolf]

This might just be the tip of the iceberg.T

here’s a lot of strange behavior happening with Claude Desktop lately. The other day I asked it to implement a specific piece of code in a very particular way. Instead, it completely ignored my instructions and did it differently. When I asked why, it told me Anthropic had explicitly instructed it not to code it that way.I followed up and asked: “Is this part of the safety guidelines?”

It replied no, saying the code had nothing to do with safety and didn’t come close to touching any guardrails.

[Cris Reed 🎙️Bitcoin Mindset Podcast @CrisReed]

Posted this clip nearly 18 months ago.

Would suggest listening again.

[Coinminutes @coinminutes_en]

🚨 Updated for 2026’s LARGEST DeFi Exploit: Kelp DAO rsETH Bridge Hacked for $293 MILLION

On April 18, attackers exploited the LayerZero-powered rsETH bridge (OFT/OApp config) via a single-DVN flaw — forging fake `lzReceive` messages from another chain.

Result? 116,500 $rsETH (18% of total supply) minted with ZERO backing. Funds were immediately deposited as collateral across Aave V3/V4, SparkLend, Fluid, Upshift, Compound, Euler & more — borrowing $200–236M WETH/ETH, then swapped on Uniswap/Kyber and consolidated.

The entire attack took just 46 minutes before Kelp paused everything.

Direct Impact:
• Kelp DAO: All rsETH contracts frozen on mainnet + 20+ L2s (Arbitrum etc.). Wrapped ETH now stranded. Full investigation underway with LayerZero, Unichain, auditors & top security teams.

Heavy Collateral Damage:
• @aave (hardest hit): rsETH markets frozen instantly. ~$177–236M bad debt in WETH pools. TVL plunged **$5–6.6B** (~21% drop) in 24h, ETH utilization hit 100%. $AAVE token dumped 16–20%. Aave confirmed their contracts are safe — only external rsETH exploit. Suppliers advised to withdraw WETH if possible.

• @Spark, @0xfluid , @upshift_fi , Compound, @eulerfinance , @Morpho : Markets paused or deposits frozen.
• @OlympusDAO : Preemptively disabled bridges on 5 chains.
• @LayerZero_Core ($ZRO): Token -12.7% (config error by Kelp, not protocol bug).

Current Status:

Investigation ongoing. No funds recovered yet. Attacker used Tornado Cash for initial funding. rsETH remains unbacked - massive contagion risk across lending protocols and liquid restaking ecosystem. DeFi is in full “bank-run mode” on affected pools.

Stay safe, DYOR, and monitor @KelpDAO + @aave for official updates.

[SJB @SJBrisson]

@RadarHits Just to be clear, he did not say that "US would take all the oil from Iran." He said: they "will take all oil out of terrorist hands"... meaning just out of the terrorists control, not that US would take it all.

[SJB @SJBrisson]

@randgroup Sorted descending per capita (aircraft per 1,000 people):United States — 0.037
South Korea — 0.030
Russia — 0.029
France — 0.014
Turkey — 0.013
Japan — 0.012
Egypt — 0.009
Pakistan — 0.005
China — 0.0025
India — 0.0015

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

Bitcoin bottom loading...

This takes time!