thing Skerz

[thing Skerz @SkerzThing]

New semester unlocked! Fresh goals, new adventures, and endless growth ahead—let’s make this term unforgettable!

[장인교 @candyboy104]

Got a tiny win today—fixed that tricky data sync bug that’s been slowing our team down for days! Now my afternoon coffee’s gonna taste extra good.，

[thing Skerz @SkerzThing]

Loving every page of this heartfelt novel—stories that stick with you long after you close the book.

[thing Skerz @SkerzThing]

Caught this golden moment: soft, melty cheese stretching across a warm homemade toast at brunch. Pure cozy vibe in every bite.

[kain @sungel7]

Just got my long-awaited package! Knife through the shipping tape, unboxing this little surprise feels like winning a tiny prize. Love those fresh, unopened items right out of the box ，

[thing Skerz @SkerzThing]

Just nailed a challenging vocab quiz after 2 weeks of daily 15-min practice Small steps lead to big wins!

[변상민 @tkdalsop123]

Adjusting to a new daily routine Start small—wake up 15 mins earlier, stick to it for 3 days, and build good habits step by step!

[. @whoooszhii0]

Just made warm chocolate chip cookies with my kiddo, and we’ve been laughing over the silly drawings they scrawled on the baking tray. Perfect little Sunday win

[thing Skerz @SkerzThing]

Thanksgiving is comin’! Try our seasonal pumpkin spice roast turkey platter – juicy, spiced perfectly, ready for your feast! Tag us in your family meal pics! #ThanksgivingFeast #SeasonalEats，

[Joseph Brown @heresyfinancial]

The money supply is shrinking. So what?

Well, the last time it did this was the Great Depression

However, it's important to note that this is a YoY change

Looking closer, the money supply change has actually flatlined and is almost unchanged from May-Dec this year

The flatline occurred despite continued shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet

The reason the money supply stopped shrinking is likely because money started to leave the reverse repo facility

It was May when the money supply stopped shrinking, and it was also May when the cash started to leave the Reverse Repo facility

This makes sense because Institutional cash in reverse repo is outside the banking system and not counted in M2

So as t bills rates began to exceed the RRP rate (also starting in May), cash started to leave RRP and go to T bills instead

T Bills are gov borrowing, which means gov spends it, and reintroduces that cash to the banking system

So money supply should begin falling again starting in Jan-Feb when RRP runs out, and no more can be reintroduced to banking system

QT will start to have the same effect on money supply yet again, and shrink it more

In the past, a shrinking money supply is always associated with panics, depressions, and recessions.

There is always a lag, and we should expect a lag especially when the shrinking of the money supply pauses halfway through

But we should not expect that there will be no economic pain simply because it has not started yet

[Joseph Brown @heresyfinancial]

Only $683 Billion left in the Fed's Reverse Repo facility

One year ago it topped at $2.5 trillion

Right now, all this cash is going into t bills (short term government debt)

If everything stays the same (treasury borrowing amounts, treasury bill issuance, Fed interest rates, QT), it will be empty in a few months

Once it is empty, the money the government is borrowing has to come from somewhere else. This is a force that will push up on interest rates.

TBD whether that force will be offset by other forces

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Personal interest payments now exceed $500 billion

Current levels have NEVER been seen since 1959

This sets the stage for rapid consumer weakening

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Warning: Credit card interest rates have spiked to 21.19%

A level that has NEVER been seen since 1995

This is happening at a time when credit card debt have surpassed $1 trillion

And personal interest payments has crossed above $500 billion

There is only 1 word to define this: Unsustainable

[Michael J. Kramer @MichaelMOTTCM]

$bac unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Permanent job losses have been on the rise

A spike in this metric has sysmtematically led to a recession

Current rate of increase is comparable to:

- Dot Com bubble
- Financial Crisis
- Pandemic

All three instances experienced significant economic downturns,

Resulting in sharp market downturns

[Macro Dose @macro_dose]

US Mortgage applications fell another 6.9% in the week ending October 13th

The mortgage market index is now at the lowest in almost 30 years as interest rates continue to freeze up the housing market.

The mortgage market index includes both mortgage applications and applications for refinancing.

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

October NY Fed Services Index down sharply to -19.1 … not back to January low but a steep decline nonetheless from -3 in prior month

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

October @NAHBhome Housing Market Index much weaker at 40 vs. 44 est. & 44 in prior month (rev down from 45) … all components declined, with future sales outlook falling most m/m

[MacroMicro @MacroMicroMe]

🇺🇸US #NBER #Recession Indicators has served as a reliable precursor to previous recessions. We observe that these indicators have almost always fallen by more than 2% during the last 7 recession periods since the 1970s. #MM
👉Full Article: https://t.co/5IU86gukaP

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Capital spending in Tech has been falling rapidly

Nearing contraction territory

Typically, this happens near recessions

Is this time different?