😈———-(📐

signals that make no sense

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

@HayekAndKeynes 2023: -16.7%
2024: -2.7%
2025: -12.7%
2026 (through mid-September): -14.79%

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

Rough SOTP arrives ~€32/sh before any holdco discount. If mgmt is willing to pay $13.30 for FMC but unwilling to buyback at ~0.7 times book and around four times guided EBITDA, shareholders should keep asking why.

Some buildings stay cheap because the landlord makes you nervous

[���———-(📐 @skewangles]

After 1H, $TESB.BR has become easier to understand, but harder to value. It's proven to be a diversified industrial portfolio capable of producing ~€300m of EBITDA despite weakness in machinery and the disappearance of T-Power’s legacy contract

The building is not falling down.

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

$TESB.BR 1H 2026 - stronger operational margins, and solid performance for Agro and Industrial Solutions.
Company raised expectations for the full year.

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

So the fair question now is what discount should be applied to its capital allocation strategy? Buybacks, which would increase per-share ownership of TESB’s own assets at depressed valuations, have not resumed in 2026 while management pursues external minority investments.

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

one ought at least entertain the possibility that the public sellers may not have gotten a secret genius thesis

The stock works if the core keeps doing what it appears already to be doing, mgmt keeps retiring 6–9% of the equity each year, and LPR stop obscuring what is valuable.

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

Liberty Latin America carries roughly $8.5bn of debt, about $700m of cash and 4.6x consolidated net leverage. at first glance, funding is the first-order issue and borrowing-group figures should not be confused with consolidated figures. $LILA

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

If creditors ultimately own a restructured Puerto Rico while LLA shareholders retain a healthier mid-3x-levered core, that can be a perfectly good outcome.

When insiders, chairman-class shareholder and the corp treasury are all competing with public sellers for the same shares,

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

@GuastyWinds I think HD Hyundai's Q2 were 1.44bn USD, ~1.8x Q2 book-to-bill using its quarterly revenue. Siemens Grid's quarterly book-to-bill is 1.5x. Nonetheless, it's a very solid point. Customers indeed remain backlogged despite adding capacity. OEM capacity expansion is also very bullish

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

$TESB.BR 1H 2026 - stronger operational margins, and solid performance for Agro and Industrial Solutions.
Company raised expectations for the full year.

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

Tessenderlo’s operating history is not simple. It began as a chemical and industrial group, evolved through fertilizers, animal by-products, gelatin/collagen, pipes, water-treatment chemicals, textile machinery, energy, and now an increasingly explicit investment layer. $TESB.BR

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

Update on $ABT

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

Is Abbott now just a challenged, levered, low-growth healthcare conglomerate? It's trading at 52-wk low as portfolio has become noisy and lots of competition is making things messy. And there's a debt-funded acquisition that lowered EPS guidance.

$ABT 🧵

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

In sum, the asset thesis is stronger than the stock price suggests, but the financing thesis is getting substantially weaker.
For now, a binding Bronx financing package holds the key. A project-level, substantially non-recourse solution can upgrade the equity thesis sharply.

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

$BALY is now a highly levered, financing-dependent special situation in which the equity can rerate sharply if management converts several non-binding financing/monetization initiatives into cash.

If it cannot, the equity holders can suffer severe dilution.

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

$BALY update

[😈———-(📐 @skewangles]

Also, if Bally’s can monetize Vegas while avoiding a large development commitment, that can simultaneously:

generate liquidity;
reduce future capital requirements;
improve lender confidence;
reduce the probability of a BALY equity raise