If you roll a die 1000x, you’re likely to get lucky
And when you get lucky, people will call you out
The difference is, you can force luck to happen by doing so much it would be unreasonable not to get lucky
And this is what normies don’t understand, and why you’ll beat them.
I want to clarify that I haven’t left the project—I’m still very much part of the team. To avoid overburdening investors and to streamline development, I've handed over lead developer responsibilities to Hagelin (@0xhagelin), who is highly capable and aligned with our goals.
The structure remains the same—this is simply a shift in roles as we onboard new developers. It’s all part of growing responsibly. Smokey (@Smokey_0x0), Jay (@xcyb0rg), and Jake (@Jake_0x0) continue to lead key areas like marketing and community management. Our vision and commitment remain unchanged. Transparency remains a priority, and there’s no reason for concern. #0x0
SuperVerse 🤝 @TheLostGlitches
With over 250,000 players and a 4.6 star rating on Epic Games, this strategic TCG is taking the genre by storm.
You can now use $SUPER to grab booster packs and in-game items — and there’s even more exclusive perks on the way 👀
I think $SUPER is the one gaming coin worth holding. It’s integrated into nearly every metaverse and gaming project, and more importantly it’s held 2x+ above its 2023 bear market lows.
That’s a strong sign of a healthy, long-term community still in profit.
In the middle of 2021:
$BTC drew down 56%
$ETH drew down 61%
$SOL drew down 67%
Many others 70-80%+
You can come up with all the reasons for why this cycle is different, but the mid-bull reset we're going through isn't unprecedented. Those calling for a full blown bear are misguided.
Great news!
After years of litigation, millions of your taxpayer dollars spent, and irreparable harm done to the country, we reached an agreement with SEC staff to dismiss their litigation against Coinbase. Once approved by the Commission (which we're told to expect next week) this would be a full dismissal, with $0 in fines paid and zero changes to our business.
This is hugely vindicating, especially because many people questioned my decision to engage in litigation with the SEC on this matter in 2023. People told me the courts would give a lot of leeway to the government. They said public market investors wouldn't like it. They said it would take years and cost us tens of millions of dollars in legal fees (which it did). They said the agency would use mafia tactics like trying to pressure other companies not to work with us while the lawsuit was underway (which they did).
But I knew a few truths that helped make it an easy decision to fight them in court:
1. The SEC was wrong on the law.
They were exceeding the authority given to them by congress by asking us to delist a number of assets that were not securities. We had taken a conservative approach to ensure we weren't listing any securities, and the SEC itself had allowed us to go public in 2021 after reviewing our listing standards in depth. We tried to “come in and register” but it turned out it was a fake offer, as every crypto company discovered. Regulators are supposed to enforce the law, but they can't make up new laws on the spot if they don't like the current ones, or weaponize a lack of clarity in the law.
2. Caving to their demands could have killed the crypto industry in America.
The SEC made it clear to us that the only way to avoid litigation was to delist the many assets they falsely claimed were securities. It was a bullying tactic, pure and simple, driven by Gensler's own political agenda. And if we had caved, it would have dramatically limited the scope of which crypto assets were allowed in the US, and pushed the industry further offshore, into the shadows. Never forget how close a few activists in government came to unlawfully killing an entire industry in America! It could have easily gone the other way. Thank goodness the founding fathers created the judicial branch, as a check and balance on executive power.
3. It was the right thing to do for our customers and the industry.
At the end of the day, it didn't matter what our chance of success was. I had to stand up for our customers’ and our industry’s rights. I also knew it would serve as a deterrent for future bad actors around the world we may have to engage with, for them to know that we won't be bullied or pressured. We are comfortable engaging in litigation across multiple fronts, indefinitely, while continuing to build. This is business as usual. As Bain in The Dark Knight says, "you merely adopted the dark; I was born in it".
Growing up I had a naive view that regulators exist to hold companies accountable. What I realized in this ordeal is sometimes, companies must hold regulators accountable who are painting outside the bounds of the law, to preserve freedom. Accountability can actually happen both ways. At Coinbase, our mission is to increase economic freedom, and I initially thought we could achieve this solely through our crypto products. But I'm increasingly realizing that we can move the needle on economic freedom in the courts and through our policy efforts as well, when we see bad actors in government around the world. We plan to do more of this.
I have to give credit here to the Trump administration, for winning the election, and for the departure of the activist head of the SEC, Gary Gensler, who orchestrated this unlawful action along with Elizabeth Warren, and a handful of their lackeys in congress. I feel confident we would have won this case in the courts either way, given our facts were so strong, but it certainly helped accelerate the process and drive accountability. I called out the sketchy behavior of the SEC back in 2021, and I believe this comment turned out to be prescient.
I want to give a shout out to all the other crypto companies who fought back with their own lawsuits (we certainly were not the only ones).
I want to give a shout out to all the crypto startups who couldn't afford the legal fees, and went bankrupt due to the administration's abusive tactics. Your company may have died, but crypto lives on. Don't stop building.
I want to give a shout out to both Democrat and Republican members of congress, who are working hard to ensure America leads on crypto. I know that Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren do not represent the entire Democratic party.
And I want to give a shout out to all the crypto holders in the US who elected pro-crypto candidates, on both sides of the aisle, to make sure your rights were preserved. It turns out the crypto voter is real, and showed up in the millions.
Finally, I expect we'll continue working productively with the SEC on any number of items over the years, just as we do with every agency around the world where we operate. I look forward to the SEC being reformed under Paul Atkins, Mark Uyeda, Hester Peirce, and DOGE, and new more sensible personnel coming into leadership roles. I commend the new leadership that is already in place for working to right this wrong - it's a great step in the right direction, and took courage. Now let's get some crypto legislation passed in the US to finally clarify the rules, and really kick off this next phase of building.
The way I'm structuring my portfolio is 50% long-term high conviction plays, and 50% allocated in stables/active trades, which I use to go in-and-out of opportunities as they arise.
I'm denominating all my trades in stables as a metric to judge my success over time, taking profits back into stables every time I exit a trade.
A bunch of small wins over a sustained period of time = a much bigger long-term win overall.
So instead of going all-out trying to "make it" by relying on "alt season" to multiply your portfolio, try and consistently compound wealth over time.
Small bet > take profits, another bet > take profits and so on.
Feel like some haven’t understood it yet so I’ll just spell it out-
1. Stop asking wen Alt season- alt seasons as you know them are no more. Just occasional dumb pockets of liquidity— like when the noob gets his monthly paycheck and goes to the casino or poker room to gamble against the odds and eventually lose it.
2. The 4 year btc cycle is also no more. Inflation halvings dont matter under 1% emissions as now, and macro cycles have been repressed by the US money printing. We will just get more random and unpredictable choppiness now.
3. The retarded ‘L1 premium’ is no more. It finally got saturated with all the chains. You want premium, go build smth that actually innovates and can get to sustainable revenue.
Clear enough? Adapt or get chopped up. No pressure— just your whole future bloodline depending on you getting this right.
At your funeral, friends and family will argue over who gets your belongings.
People will talk about the food and the venue.
Your life will be summarized in 2-3 paragraphs.
Conversations will shift from your life to their lives.
Your friends will drive away thinking about what’s next on their to-do list.
Some people won't be able to make it because "something came up."
And most of the people you know today won’t even be there.
You’re gonna die.
People will move on (in weeks not years).
Do what you want.
If you’re relatively new here and plan to stick around, the good news is that you're learning a valuable lesson about how price and developments actually relate. It’s not always intuitive, and it’s one of those hard truths that separates veterans from the rest.
If you scroll back through my tweets—starting in December, when I first said I was getting defensive and hitting the sell button more after tagging 108—you’ll see my thoughts on where we were in the bigger move. Leading up to the inauguration, I shared more of my views, and the responses were... predictable. Tons of people pointed to all the "positive developments" they believed guaranteed much higher prices, often accompanied by a healthy dose of hate.
Here’s the thing: It’s crucial to understand the difference between what matters in the short term versus the long term. In the short term (minutes, days, even months), fundamentals—like the policy shifts from Trump—don’t carry nearly as much weight as positioning, flows, and the actual impact those dynamics are showing, if any.
Markets are forward-looking machines. They don’t care about your feelings or how great something looks on paper. By the time you’re reading about a development in the news or hearing everyone hyped about it, chances are it’s already priced in—or worse, the narrative no longer matters in the immediate term.
Understanding this now will save you from a lot of frustration later. Markets reward those who think critically about timing, sentiment, and positioning, not just those who focus on "good news" and assume prices will follow.