@StockPatternPro It really doesn’t matter how much good you do for people. They always got some shit to say. This place is toxic. Keep doing your thing man. You are one of the best!
@Bigkev451@Bigkev451@4HeatherHill can anyone share what would be a good place to add NVDA calls? I see BB’s 500 EMA at $212 ish on hourly. I remember him saying nothing good happens below 218
A message for my $TSLA friends eyeing the SpaceX IPO $SPCX.
I traded $TSLA for years. I know the community. I know the excitement when Elon takes something public. But before you chase @SpaceX at $1.75 trillion, read the S-1 carefully.
SpaceX doesn't need your money.
They raised at $800B in private tenders six months ago. They could raise $50B privately tomorrow with a phone call. This IPO isn't about raising capital. It's about giving insiders liquidity.
95% of @SpaceX shares are held by insiders. Only 5% will be publicly traded. Insiders hold $1.66 trillion in paper wealth they currently can't sell. The IPO changes that.
And they've structured it so insiders can sell BEFORE the standard 180-day lock-up expires. @SpaceX built in early release provisions -- after the first earnings report, insiders can sell up to 20% of their shares.
They're also reserving 30% of IPO shares for retail. Ask yourself -- when has Wall Street ever given retail the best seats in the house unless retail was the product?
100x revenue.
$4.9B net loss.
xAI burning $6.4B a year while @Starlink subsidizes it.
This isn't 2020 Tesla at 20x revenue with a clear path to profitability. This is a different risk profile.
Now here's the part I want you to actually consider.
SpaceX's S-1 sizes their satellite-to-phone business (Starlink Mobile) at a $740 billion TAM. Their Connectivity segment does $11.4B at 63% EBITDA margins. Those numbers are real and impressive.
But buried in the S-1, @SpaceX names their D2D competitor: $ASTS .
@AST_SpaceMobile $40 billion market cap.
Not $1.75 trillion. $40 billion.
Here's what $40B buys you:
98.9 Mbps proven from space to unmodified phones (SpaceX does 3-5 Mbps)
The only low-band D2D spectrum access on Earth (indoor coverage SpaceX can't match)
All three US carriers forming a joint venture around ASTS technology
Google invested $358M
their largest public equity holding
AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone as equity investors
$3.5B cash, $1.2B contracted backlog
3,900 patents, custom ASIC in production
Three satellites launching on a Falcon 9 next month
60 carrier partners covering 3 billion subscribers
@SpaceX at $1.75T is pricing perfection across rockets, satellites, AI, and Mars. One miss and it corrects hard.
$ASTS at $40B is pricing uncertainty in a $740B market where the technology is already proven and the carriers have already chosen sides.
The Tesla community knows what it feels like to find a mispriced stock before the world catches on. $TSLA at $30 pre-split wasn't obvious to anyone except the people who did the work.
$ASTS at $106 in a $740B market with 33x faster speeds than SpaceX D2D, a carrier JV, and institutional discovery just beginning -- that's the same kind of setup.
So before you throw money at a $1.75T IPO where insiders are building exit ramps, maybe look at the $40B competitor they named in their own filing.
Not financial advice. Just math.
$ASTS 🛰️
cc @SawyerMerritt@unusual_whales@DanBTC916